The market just hit ATH today,will this invert or change 60cycle?or how should i know if the cycle is inverted somehow?cuz ATH means the trend has been reversed. Does it mean this is the end retrace,and no more lower lows?
Yes, the SPX and Nasdaq made all-time highs. Not the DJIA or the broader NYSE Composite; many other stocks have not followed the same path and have stayed closer to the 60-year analog. That some indices made new all-time highs does not immediately mean the 60-year cycle has inverted.
Remember: Time is more important than price. Volatility is not always the same as in the analog period. Hence, in a similar time period, it can reach a higher or lower price than in the past.
The next inflection date on the 60-year cycle analog is April 21st, 2026. It may invert, and cycles can contract or extend, but only time will tell whether this is happening.
There is currently a 60% correlation between the SPX, the DJIA, and the 60-year cycle analog over the last year, mainly driven by the April 2025 dip, which came earlier than expected. This was lower a year ago. Gradually, in 2025, the market became more aligned with the analog, and by the end of 2025, it was not far from the price forecast made a year earlier.
so my following question is, since the market hits ATH, do u still consider this is a rally in a bit downside trend?there will be lower lows in June?what if retrace from 21th,April,then rally from mid of may and hit another ATH,retrace around June but hits higher low. (Basically the market starts uptrend from now on with higher lows and higher highs).would u consider the market still follows 60yr cycle?
I am sorry David, I have given that answer already in my post. Please read my post again.
Last week I spoke of two possible scenarios to unfold. We may be on the second scenario. We will have to see what the market does.
The theme of the 60 year cycle to resonate 60 years later can often be seen in other areas of society as well.
In 1966 the democrats lost the midterm elections to the GOP and the stock market declined big time along with it on inflation fears and the dissatifaction with the Vietnam war.
I can see the GOP to lose the midterms this time, if I have to believe the Polymarket. This may give a similar stress on the stock market as seen in 1966.
Perhaps the war in Iran may continue for some time to come as well. That may resonate with the Vietnam war in 1966. Or may be another conflict will come to the surface.
We will just have to see. You can see the themes to repeat in some similar forms.
Not always does the stock market immediately follow that same theme. Central Bank policies can interfere to give some relief to the financial markets.
As mentioned many times before. The 60-year cycle is a good indicator for the longer term trend, but not accurate enough from a day to day perspective.
Last year the 60-year cycle analog deviated for some time up to 90 days, as the trade tariffs raise came in earlier (Feb) than in 1965(May).
There are other cycles as well. What more can I say?
Hence, I will not further comment on further questions in this post. You read any change in my analysis in the future posts to come.
It is an interesting discussion, David. There are many options, and indeed the 30-year cycle peaked in May of that year (1996). As the 60-year cycle is almost 3x the nominal 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle, we may need to consider where we are on this cycle. From a Geo perspective, a crest is expected around April 22nd. The cycles of Jupiter, Mercury, and the North Node are also interesting to follow. This may sustain the current trend for some time unless the 60-year cycle turns, as it has in the past, at the expected inflection point. I will discuss this in the next post, probably later this weekend.
The market just hit ATH today,will this invert or change 60cycle?or how should i know if the cycle is inverted somehow?cuz ATH means the trend has been reversed. Does it mean this is the end retrace,and no more lower lows?
Yes, the SPX and Nasdaq made all-time highs. Not the DJIA or the broader NYSE Composite; many other stocks have not followed the same path and have stayed closer to the 60-year analog. That some indices made new all-time highs does not immediately mean the 60-year cycle has inverted.
Remember: Time is more important than price. Volatility is not always the same as in the analog period. Hence, in a similar time period, it can reach a higher or lower price than in the past.
The next inflection date on the 60-year cycle analog is April 21st, 2026. It may invert, and cycles can contract or extend, but only time will tell whether this is happening.
There is currently a 60% correlation between the SPX, the DJIA, and the 60-year cycle analog over the last year, mainly driven by the April 2025 dip, which came earlier than expected. This was lower a year ago. Gradually, in 2025, the market became more aligned with the analog, and by the end of 2025, it was not far from the price forecast made a year earlier.
so my following question is, since the market hits ATH, do u still consider this is a rally in a bit downside trend?there will be lower lows in June?what if retrace from 21th,April,then rally from mid of may and hit another ATH,retrace around June but hits higher low. (Basically the market starts uptrend from now on with higher lows and higher highs).would u consider the market still follows 60yr cycle?
I am sorry David, I have given that answer already in my post. Please read my post again.
Last week I spoke of two possible scenarios to unfold. We may be on the second scenario. We will have to see what the market does.
The theme of the 60 year cycle to resonate 60 years later can often be seen in other areas of society as well.
In 1966 the democrats lost the midterm elections to the GOP and the stock market declined big time along with it on inflation fears and the dissatifaction with the Vietnam war.
I can see the GOP to lose the midterms this time, if I have to believe the Polymarket. This may give a similar stress on the stock market as seen in 1966.
Perhaps the war in Iran may continue for some time to come as well. That may resonate with the Vietnam war in 1966. Or may be another conflict will come to the surface.
We will just have to see. You can see the themes to repeat in some similar forms.
Not always does the stock market immediately follow that same theme. Central Bank policies can interfere to give some relief to the financial markets.
As mentioned many times before. The 60-year cycle is a good indicator for the longer term trend, but not accurate enough from a day to day perspective.
Last year the 60-year cycle analog deviated for some time up to 90 days, as the trade tariffs raise came in earlier (Feb) than in 1965(May).
There are other cycles as well. What more can I say?
Hence, I will not further comment on further questions in this post. You read any change in my analysis in the future posts to come.
Thank you. I’m just learning how to determine which cycle to use,why 60yr or 30yr whatsoever. Now I think I got the answer.
It is an interesting discussion, David. There are many options, and indeed the 30-year cycle peaked in May of that year (1996). As the 60-year cycle is almost 3x the nominal 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle, we may need to consider where we are on this cycle. From a Geo perspective, a crest is expected around April 22nd. The cycles of Jupiter, Mercury, and the North Node are also interesting to follow. This may sustain the current trend for some time unless the 60-year cycle turns, as it has in the past, at the expected inflection point. I will discuss this in the next post, probably later this weekend.
ty well noted