Gold and Silver: The Risk Premium Comes Out
#310 | Quick update. Gold turning down from the January high, and silver resolving the triangle, after the June peace headlines.
Introduction
In my post, "A revisit to recent charts and analysis" (March 22), I flagged gold running into price and time resistance at the end of January 2026, 49 years from the 1976 low, 45 years from the 1980 high, and 90 months from the 2018 low. I expected a turn there.
Gold has turned. Silver has rolled over from its May high. The US-Iran peace headlines on June 15 to 19 may have pulled the safe-haven bid out of both at once.
Gold
The January 29 high squared price and time on the $100 per degree Saturn 1x1, and gold has turned down from it. This was close to a Mars conjunct Pluto aspect. Price near 4,246 has broken that dashed Saturn 1x1 line at 4,392 and is following a foldback scenario (dotted blue line) from the crest, now near 4,253.
The open question on the chart: is gold tumbling toward a low on inflation fears, or simply following its regular 4-year cycle? Gold made a low in September/October 2022, four years back.
Below 4,253, the next downside step is 4,086, then the Saturn 1x2 line near 3,816, with AVWAP the nearer support. A weekly close below this line could bring Gold and back to 2,800 price level around the Saturn 1x4 timing line, but the 3,300 level around December may be a more likely target along the foldback scenario. A weekly close back above the dashed Saturn 1x1 at 4,392 could invalidate a further downside continuation.
Note: The semi-circles on the chart, representing a 180-degree move in this synodic cycle, suggest the 4-year cycle trough can be expected as early as end of June 2026, or as late as around the Mars opposition Pluto aspect in late 2026 which coincides with the larger dashed circle drawn on the chart.
Silver
Silver did what my analysis in my post “Did Silver Futures Experience a Premature Breakout?" (see my post #304, May 16) pointed to. A premature triangle breakout without volume resolves to the downside about 82% of the time on Bulkowski’s statistics, and price threw back inside the triangle, then the late-May high (point C) rolled over.
Price near 66 to 68 is heading toward the projected low (point D) in the June 26 to 29 window. This looks like an AB=CD harmonic pattern in the making. The measured move of 34.6 points to just below the Saturn 2x1 near 55.460 as the target zone. Volume keeps falling, which fits the move. A close back above the upper 50-day simple moving average near 75.40, then 82.67, would flip it the other way.
Note: the 1x1 Saturn line from the top and the 2x1 Saturn timing line from the August 2025 low seem to form a larger symmetrical triangle on which a breakout could occur at the end of the circle by end of July 2026.
Conclusion
The January gold top held, and silver resolved its triangle lower, with the June Iran peace headlines likely draining the premium from both.
Gold’s near-term read points to the lower Saturn 1x2 line, around 3,800. The open question is whether this marks a 4-year cycle low, or whether gold continues lower on the foldback toward 3,300. Silver tracks toward the 55.460 zone into late June, along the AB=CD harmonic.
This is my current bias on gold and silver. The peace headlines can shift, and a fresh supply shock would change the analysis.
Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.
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