Crude Oil: From the April High Back Toward Normal
#311 | Quick update. Scoring the January spike call and the April top, with Brent now in the foldback.
Introduction
In my March 1, 2026 post “The Impact of US Actions in Iran on Oil Prices and Stock Markets,” I called for Brent crude to spike toward $100 a barrel on the Strait of Hormuz disruption, along the Jupiter-Saturn cycle toward 119. On April 14, 2026 I posted a Substack note with Daily Brent Crude Europe at 127.61, and a reversal watch right at that level.
Brent trades near 79.85 today, down about 37% from that peak. The move ran hot, into the same Jupiter-Saturn angle as 12 years earlier, then turned. That timing raises a fair question of how much of the spike was the conflict and how much was the cycle.
The top and the foldback
The high printed into the April 9 to April 19, 2026 window, on the Mars-Saturn marker I had flagged, in the 118.992 to 126.100 zone (the April 14 note caught 127.61 intraday).
The reversal followed, the inversion of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle the chart is built on, which I first drew in a note on March 20, 2026. The foldback (dotted blue line) mirrors the decline from the 2014 high, about 2,160 calendar days per leg.
I was expecting a more sideways move along the foldback scenario. Brent near 79.85 now sits below the foldback path, between the 86.720 line above and the 61.960 level below.
The path points down toward 61.960 and lower over the next few years, with pauses along the way.
A reopened Strait of Hormuz removes the risk premium. The June US-Iran headlines have been mixed: a signing reported around June 19, talks for a final agreement postponed that day, then resumed today. Treat the status as unsettled.
The line that would change the analysis: a monthly close back above the 86.720 Saturn line, then 93.247, would say the premium is rebuilding rather than unwinding.
Conclusion
The January spike call and the April top both played out, and Brent has since fallen about 37% into the foldback. Below 86.720, the path toward 61.960 stays the base case, with the Strait headlines the main swing factor.
This is my current bias on crude oil. A fresh supply shock can pull it back up at any time.
Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.
In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)
P.S.: I’ll post the next crude update when the foldback reaches the 61.960 zone or the premium starts to rebuild. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join.
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Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.