Introduction
In my previous forecast, “The Dow blinks first. Will the others follow?” (#323), I envisioned a low by early October 2026, based on a composite cycle of the three mid-term analogs (1890, 1898, 1978) that I have been closely following this year, as we are in a midterm year.
The Dow followed this forecast very closely, reaching a low by October 1st, 2026, while the SPX and the Nasdaq 100 continued into a double top. Such divergence in the major indices often signals we’re near a top, as it did at the end of 2021 (5 years ago).
In my research, I looked back and found the 80-year cycle surfacing with an 88 percent correlation(r=0.88) with the DJIA. I found it intriguing because I remembered George Bayer often looked back at the 80-year cycle.
Looking back 80 years
Themes of the past often repeat. I have often written about this on the 60-year cycle. Looking back at 1946, remarkable events echo today.
The United Nations’s first meeting was held in 1946. The exact same institution is now struggling and facing an existential crisis. In December 1946, the USA made Denmark a proposal to purchase Greenland. Recently, the USA and Denmark reached an agreement on Greenland that amended the 1951 agreement.
In 1946, President Truman proposed a committee to investigate and strengthen civil rights for citizens. Just 80 years later, under the current administration, some efforts were made to roll back civil rights.
In March 1946, Winston Churchill delivered his famous “Iron Curtain” speech, which marked the start of the Cold War between East and West. In 2026, the world is again split into competing blocks for technological, military, and regional supremacy.
In 1946, the USA faced high postwar inflation, and voters’ frustration led Republicans to defeat President Truman in the midterm elections in both chambers of Congress. The 2026 midterm elections, still to be held, are forecast to deliver a similar loss of power for the current administration in both chambers of Congress, but this time to the Democrats.
George Bayer noticed a remarkable 80-year cycle in the stock market following Mercury’s position. In rule #4A, Mercury 80 years ago, he noticed that when Mercury went retrograde or direct, tops and bottoms formed 80 years later, and not just by a few points. You can see this in the chart below for the SPX in 2022.
I truly cannot explain why the significant moves occurred in 2022 based on Mercury’s position in 1942. It is not an isolated incident; you can check the 2020 COVID low against Mercury’s position in 1940. The April 2025 low with Mercury’s position in 1945. Between 2020 and 2025, the other periods also showed large moves.
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