Introduction
In “Gold and Silver: The Risk Premium Comes Out” (#310, June 21), I pointed to a silver low in the June 26 to 29 window, with the AB=CD measured move projecting a target zone just below 55.460. It came in on time and close to the level. Silver bottomed at 55.75 on June 24 and 26, then retested at 55.70 on July 17, a double low a touch above the target. The cycles reverted from that July 17 low, and silver has rallied back to the $69 to $70 resistance since.
The last attempt of Silver Futures to break through $70 failed again last week. The $69 to $70 price level is an important resistance level, and it may take some time before it is breached from below.
The drop last Friday occurred around the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market read it as inflation still running and a rate hike still on the table. My own read: the speech was a balanced overview, with no conclusion yet to draw on rate hikes.
From a pattern and geometry perspective, I can see a case where this resistance level is breached, and Silver may return to the all-time highs of January 2026. It may be sooner rather than later.
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Clean AB=CD call on the June low. Agree $69 to $70 is the wall, and Friday showed why it needs a daily close, not a wick: silver tagged $71 and closed back at $66. On Warsh, balanced or not, the yields moved. The 10-year real yield rose 2.34 to 2.42 on the day. That's the real headwind. The tell now is the miners, holding their line while both metals gave back their first level.