Planetary Harmonic Model - 25 Nov 2022
Is the World Cup Soccer event a leading indicator of the world economy?
This morning I was reading an article “Is the world cup a leading indicator of the world economy?” on MarketWatch by Jim O'Neill. It is an interesting thought as it is a world event.
According to FIFA-estimates around 5 billion people will watch the World Cup this year. That is massive, it certainly boosts consumption around the world. Airlines may see a surge in flights towards the event. The hotels and accommodations are sold-out in the country where the games are held and local economy prospers. Other people around the world may buy new television sets to be able to watch the games better on bigger screens. Local pubs do good business and beer and other beverage companies may see a surge in revenue. This may have an after effect but results (better/worse) are only published after the event.
This is why W.D. Gann always looked at world events to filter out the cycles that matter. Some cycles from e.g. : 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, 30, 49 or 60 years and beyond may repeat again.
I have looked today at the years when the World Cup soccer were held since the start in 1930 and made a solar model for these years. You can see in below log chart on the DJIA the model was pretty much predictive for what happened on the Stock Market in 2022. Apparently people’s behavior has a common denominator in these years and certain cycles do repeat.
The above model does not look favorable for the remainder of this year, with the RSI in overbought area. However, past performance does not always guarantee future results. So, always watch the chart in front of you.
Who will end up in the finals again?
As the 60-years cycle is dominant this year perhaps Brazil who was in the 1962 final with Czechoslovakia (who did not qualify this year) may end up in the final again1. Or will it be Brazil against Germany like in 2002, just 20 years ago? The match 49 years ago was a match between Germany and the Netherlands. In 1998 (24 years ago) and 2018 (4 years ago) France won the World Cup. At the time of writing these are all country teams that are still playing in this year’s contest and following theses cycles they may make a good chance to end up in this year’s final.
Jim’s article does not make too much of an economic forecast. In his article Jim O'Neill further looked into the GDP growth in the years after the games and somewhat concluded that: “It currently looks as though this trend could be reversed this decade, even with eight years still to go.” I would not go that far yet, but the prospect for next year does have some challenges which is addressed in the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2023.
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Planetary Harmonic Models - update
In the remainder of this post, I have updated the Planetary Harmonic Models for 2022 on the $DJIA, $SPX and $COMPX for our premium subscribers