$DJIA update October 21 2021

Will the Mars Uranus Crash Cycle repeat again?

$DJIA - Gann Master Cycle updated

The dynamic forecast on the $DJIA moved 300 points higher from its expected high in November and December 2021 since last update.

The forecasted high in mid November 2021 with a possible second top around mid December 2021 seems to be aligned with the Mars-Uranus cycle (702 days cycle) which is know as the crash cycle. Arch Crawford, who recently retired, has published a nice thesis around this cycle and Raymond Merriman did extensive research on this cycle as well.

Mars opposition Uranus

According to Raymond Merriman in his book on Stock Market Timing the Mars opposition Uranus planetary signature has a potential to correlate with very large reversals. According to him “the probability of a primary cycle unfolding within an orb of 10 trading days is 73%”.¹ The probabilities of this cycle to from a top is thus quite high.

This cycle culminates on November 17th 2021, but in the past this cycle did not always turn on the spot like in 1929 or in 1962 as documented also here in the link to Arch Crawford thesis.

In early January 2018 Arch Crawford published on his website:

“ON DECEMBER 2nd, Mars opposed the planet Uranus, beginning the 40% of that synodic cycle which has contained EVERY stock market crash of the past 100 years! As it is a short cycle of about two years, it is clear that a crashing market does not occur in any but a small portion of such cycles. However, with the current Bull Market move becoming very extended, and with various economic and technical information weakening the "Big Picture," our opinion is firm that the year ahead presents more than casual dangers to lives and fortunes!”

After December 2nd 2017, Mars opposing Uranus, the stock market continued its course and did set a top in late January 2018, after it crashed quite quickly. Perhaps this can happen again as the currently the Bull Market seems very extended as well and many cycles are probably topping out in the last two months of 2021 as annotated in below chart on the $DJIA.

A confluence in price and time

The Stock Market usually turns when there is a confluence in price and time. Geometry and the 161.8% Fibonacci price level extension on the $DJIA suggests some resistance around November 17th 2021. The Saturn 1° = $1000 line drawn from the low March 2022 will also hit this confluence in time and price on November 17th 2021. In time this is 1080 days from December 2nd 2018 and right on the 45° (Gann 1x1) line drawn from the March 2020 low.

A few days later on November 19th there is a partial lunar eclipse. Particular events to crashes in 1963 and 1987 also have an anniversary this mid November as well. I do not know if these are regular cycles but on November 13th it is exactly 717 moons (58 years) from 22 November 1963, the day J.F. Kennedy was murdered and the market crashed. A spiral calendar anniversary.² November 15th is 18 million minutes away from stock market high in August 25th 1987 (a reference to a multiple 180 degrees?).

Conclusion

The Gann Master cycle suggests we are in a probable topping phase here. The market has shown to be able in the past to continue for some time after the Mars Uranus opposition (like in December 2017) and some major cycles due in December 2021 could be a reason for it.

Currently the Mars Uranus cycle is much earlier compared to the previous Gann Master cycle which ignited the crash after the Mars Uranus opposition. Perhaps the Gann Master Cycle could turn this time earlier as well. The confluence in price and time does suggest that mid November 2021 target for a possible top is a big contender.

As always cycles can contract, invert or extend and anomalies can occur, so be careful and trade the chart in front of you.

So, I am keeping a vigilant watch on all of the expected cycle culminations during November and December 2021 and how the stock market behaves under these cycles. The market is always right.

Disclosure: no positions in the index mentioned in this post

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1. Raymond Merriman, Stock Market Timing, Volume 3, 2001, page 273-274

2. Christopher Calendar, The Spiral Calendar, 1992.