Cycles of War - October 13 2023
A Gann Master Cycle forecast following the DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq Composite & Nasdaq 100 - #151
Introduction
History repeats itself, as W.D. Gann wrote in his book The Tunnel Thru The Air:
“My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences. History repeats itself. That is what I have always contended, — that in order to know and predict the future of anything you only have to look up what has happened in the past and get a correct base or starting point. My authority for stating that the future is but a repetition of the past is found in the Bible.”
In his book, there are 414 references to wars. Unfortunately, exactly 50 years and 1 day after the Yom Kippur War that began on October 6th, 1973, a similar war has started again. It seems that the 49/50-year cycle is at work. The 1973 war was brief and lasted until October 25th. Let's hope that the conflict comes to an end soon, rather than later.
When looking at War cycles, Sergey Tarassov, who developed the TimingSolutions software, made an analysis of war cycles going back to 700 years before Christ. This confirms that, unfortunately, war cycles do repeat even more often than we think. He discovered that 18, 27, and 53-year cycles were the most prominent cycles of which he made this chart below. Hence, as we have experienced already, this decade may not be without wars and conflicts
W.D. Gann used many other important life-changing events or important tops or bottoms to deduct which cycle may re-occur again. From these events, you can often project forward cycles in equal increments that, even 20 years later, still have a pivotal impact on the stock market. As I mentioned a few months ago, the Mars-Uranus cycle, starting from the Iraq war in 2003, is still forecasting pivotal changes.
There is an upcoming pivotal point every 90 degrees of Mars-Uranus that may lead again towards a change in trend within a week of these dates. This date at the beginning of November also coincides with the Mars-Uranus opposition, also known as the panic cycle. Arch Crawford has done some good research on this, you can find a link in this post.
There is no guarantee this cycle will repeat, but the times it did, it had quite some impact. More on this in today’s post on the Gann Master Cycles following the US Indices.
This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles has many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend, and invert. Anomalies can occur. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Please take a look at our full disclaimer.