The Significance of the Ides of March: From Ancient Rome to Modern Markets
#175 An update on the US Indices: DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite
Introduction
The Ides of March, a date steeped in intriguing historical significance, falls on March 15th in the Roman calendar. It was a time of several religious events and a deadline for settling debts in ancient Rome. The assassination of Julius Caesar on this day in 44 BC marked a pivotal moment in Roman history; it marked the Republic's end and the Empire's beginning.
In ancient Rome, the days of a month were not numbered sequentially. Instead, they were counted backward from three fixed points: Nones, Ides, and Kalends. The Ides of March originally depended on the full moon, reflecting the use of a lunar calendar. It was later standardized to March 15th for most months, except for March, May, July, and October.
"Beware of the Ides of March" originated from William Shakespeare's play Julius Caesar. In the play, a soothsayer warns Julius Caesar to be cautious on March 15th. This phrase has since become a proverbial expression to warn someone of possible danger or misfortune.
However, the phrase also carries a positive connotation, as it signifies a potential turning point in the market's direction. This aspect of the Ides of March is particularly relevant to investors and traders.
The late Paul Macrae Montgomery, a respected stock market expert, believed that the Ides of March could be a significant turning point for the stock market. His observations on emotional stock market behavior during this period were especially compelling. In his March 27th, 2009 newsletter, he referenced market scholar Milton Berg, who highlighted the biblical significance of the fourteenth and fifteenth day of 'Adar' as a time of reversal [1]. In 2009, the Ides of March fell on March 10th, and the stock market experienced a 20% gain in the following dozen sessions. This historical event underscores the potential impact of the Ides of March on the market's direction.
In 2024, a unique alignment occurs. The 'real' Ides of March coincides near the Jewish 14th day of Adar, known as Purim. This unique convergence, with the 'real' Ides of March falling on March 25th, 2024 (Full Moon), and the Jewish 14th day of Adar on March 23rd, raises a compelling Question: Will this alignment impact the Israeli war with Hamas and a turning point in the financial markets again?
[1] Source: Milton Berg