The Greatest Bubble Is Nearing Its Peak?
#205 US Indices - Exploring the long-term cycles
Introduction
Many mainstream media or Twitter “pundits” are screaming doom and gloom for an upcoming collapse in the stock market. In the Wall Street Journal, an article cited an interview with Mark Spitznagel, a famous hedge fund manager, who said, ' The Greatest bubble is nearing its peak.’
Other “pundits” on Twitter are referencing the 666-day/week cycle that may trigger a major cycle turn soon or use any top to mirror a severe downturn without providing any logic or evidence why a major cycle top has been reached.
They may be correct that a correction is imminent or on its way, but considering the long-term cycles, it may still be some time before a major crash occurs.
From a statistical point of view the Months of May through to the end of July are often very bullish months. Around mid-July, there is often quite some volatility and down days registered when looking at the SPX statistics.
Noteworthy is the week commencing July 18th, which saw a lot of downside volatility. Hence, what we have seen in the last few months and days perfectly fits what normally happens in the overall stock market.
Observing what occurred last week, stocks surged into to the Mars-Uranus conjunction on July 15th, causing many stocks to change direction. Based on the Mars-Uranus cycle, it is possible there may be a market correction over the next few weeks or months, although I anticipate that it will be limited.
The Mars-Uranus conjunction (planets at the same degree) also occurred in August 2022. Despite the 16% to 23% decline in the three main US indices thereafter, the market hit bottom two months later, in October 2022, in line with the 60-year cycle that was forecasted many years in advance. This may happen again.
With Mars and Uranus involved, you can expect the unexpected. I don't believe we have reached the peak of the longer-term cycles or will experience a severe correction of 50% at this time. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur.
In this post, I will discuss the forecasts on the US Indices related to the 60-year, 30-year, 20-year, and 666-day cycles. In addition, there is an updated overview of the main World Indices and their breakout/reversal levels.