The 4-year Cycle Debate: Analyzing Long-Term Market Trends
#191 An update on the US Indices: DJIA, S&P500, and Nasdaq
Introduction
The 4-year cycle debate? No, I am not talking about the 4-year presidential cycle in the USA. You might have come across Raymond Merriman's recent tweet on X (formerly Twitter) discussing the 4-year cycle and suggesting that a crest of a 4-year cycle may be occurring late.
I hold a different view from Raymond Merriman's, although, in his Forecast 2024, Merriman considers another possibility as well. The 4-year cycle is an important economic cycle of business expansion and contraction, also known as the Kitchin Cycle, and it matters when it is due for a crest and trough within the larger group of cycles.
However, I find it unlikely that the 4-year cycle made a low in March 2020. Typically, cycles move from a low to a low through four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Smaller cycles move within larger cycles. Jim Hurst’s law of synchronicity also suggests that important cycles come together at major stock lows.
In 2022, the 60-year cycle almost made an exact cycle replica of 60 years earlier, leading me to believe that the 4-year cycle low aligns with the 60-year cycle low in October 2022. Therefore, the scenario of a 4-year cycle low occurring in March 2020 may not be in line with the typical behavior of long-term cycles. Spectrum analysis favors a 4-year cycle low by October 2022 as well.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that a four-year cycle low of October 2022 aligns with several significant October lows in the past, such as those in 1914, 1926, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1998, and 2002. Note the 20-year interval between the years in bold/italic.
This alignment with historical lows on a twenty-year sequence adds more weight to the possibility of a four-year cycle low in October 2022 than for a low in March 2020.
The premium subscribers can read on from here. In today's post, I will discuss the significance of the March 2020 low point, explore Saturn and Uranus's major cycles, including the 2-year and 4-year cycles and their alignment with the 60-year cycle, and plot a probable future forecast ahead.