Is the S&P500 Approaching a Pivotal Point from the Past?
#221 Exploring the Impact of 18- and 19-Year Cycles on Future Market Trends
Introduction
While analyzing the SPX chart this week, I noticed that we are approaching an important 1x1 timing line related to an important pivotal point in the past. This point will be challenging to surpass in terms of both price and time. Instead, we may follow this timing line for a while, targeting even higher highs along the way, accompanied by fluctuations.
This pivotal point connects with the 18.6-year cycle of the Moon’s North Node. McWhirter referred to this cycle as the Business Cycle. W.D. Gann noted the significance of the 18- and 19-year cycles in his Financial Time Table. The 18-year Saros cycle features the same eclipse occurring every 18 years and 11 days, while the 19-year Metonic cycle has an eclipse every 19 years, though not necessarily the same one.
The Metonic cycle, also called "enneadecaeteris" ( meaning "nineteen" derived from Ancient Greek), is roughly a 19-year period after which lunar phases recur on the same days of the year. This cycle—defined as 235 synodic months—is about 2 hours, 5 minutes, and 16 seconds longer than 19 tropical years. The 5th-century BC scholar Meton of Athens estimated this cycle to be 6,940 days, which aided in creating a lunisolar calendar.
In his Stock Market Course, W.D. Gann highlighted the importance of aligning price with time. He wrote:
“SQUARING THE PRICE RANGE WITH TIME - This is one of the most important and valuable discoveries that I have ever made, and if you stick strictly to the rule, and always watch a stock when Price is squared by Time, or when Time and Price come together, you will be able to forecast the important change in trend with greater accuracy.”
In this week’s post, I will share a longer-term SPX chart that may illuminate where price and time align based on this pivotal moment from the past and the 18/19-year, 20-year and 60-year cycles. How do you think these cycles affect market trends?