How High Can We Fly?
#280 Looking ahead what is next for the US Indices, Top 20 US Stocks and Gold
Introduction
How High can we fly? Humans have tried that many times using Balloons or cluster Balloons. Some, like Larry Walter, also known as “Lawnchair Larry,” reached very high altitudes, up to 16,000 feet (4,900 meters), and were noticed by commercial airplane pilots. Luckily, he popped some balloons before losing his consciousness and descended in time.
A similar phenomenon may occur in the stock market. The trend can continue for quite some time, as long as the oxygen (aka “money”) remains to fuel the stock market, the trend may fly to higher altitudes. Obviously, when the demand stops, the trend will change.
My forecasts are based on historical patterns, utilizing long-term cycles such as the 60-year cycle and numerous other cycles. While the positions of most planets that govern our weekly calendar generally align closely within the zodiac every 60 years, discrepancies can still arise. For example, trading days and weekends may not align the same way as they did before. Consequently, I revise the forecasts daily to accommodate these variations and make corresponding adjustments for price differences. Based on historical patterns, I do not expect the 60-year cycle to unfold exactly as forecasted a full year ahead.
“The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.” Jesse Livermore
Markets are dynamic, anomalies can occur, fundamentals can change, and cycles are not exact; therefore, my forecasts are dynamic and will adjust as needed.
This year, we observed that the expected May high in the US indices occurred 82 days earlier than anticipated based on the 60-year cycle. However, the theme underlying the downturn was identical to that of 60 years ago: a sudden tariff imposed on US trading partners.
Offsetting the 60-year cycle by 82 days still yields a probability of approximately 80% that the 60-year cycle may continue on its adjusted course (for now). That also applies to a failure rate of 20%. Therefore, it is always wise to consider the circumstances and explore potential alternative scenarios that may arise.
Additionally, in this post, I have updated the 60-year Gann Master Cycle Chart for the DJIA and the S&P 500 and provided an update on my Gold Fibonacci Spiral Forecast and the top 20 US stocks.