Back to Square One
#267 An update on the main trends in the US Indices.
Introduction
Last week, I mentioned: “The markets seem to pause, as if awaiting decisions from the US, whether it involves the US imposing tariffs on its trading partners and/or the US starting a war with Iran,” and “ starting with the new Moon on June 25th, we can expect some volatility ahead; the markets could go either way, but I estimate that it is probably more in line with the 99-year and 60-year cycles”.
This captured what happened last week quite well. Markets breathed a sigh of relief after the US military operation in Iran and the end of the 12-day war (Israël-Iran).
However, on Friday, investors were shocked in the last hour of trading when the US signaled to Canada that it's ending all trade negotiations, now that Canada's Digital Services Tax takes effect next Monday.
With the latest developments, it appears we are going back to square one in the US Tariff discussions. This will likely have an effect on the US Indices going forward.
Meanwhile, Europeans are still negotiating with the US, and the 90-day period may conclude soon, but it could be extended for some time. We probably won't see a market drop like in April, but volatility is likely to continue into the next month as US tariff talks may drag on without a clear end. With the Fourth of July holiday in the US, a final resolution may also get delayed.
From a cycle point of view, the US indices are still following a 99-year cycle. At some point, a similarity will stop working, but for now, the odds favor this cycle continuing. However, with multiple planets going Retrograde in July, the end of this cycle may be near.
As the speed of Mercury, the planet of trade, is slowing down, we may see several inflection points ahead of us that may qualify for a change in trend. In this post I will show you two George Bayer rules around Mercury Speed that may give some clues for future points in time where changes in trend may be expected.