$TLT Forecast: Treasury Bonds Near a 24-Year Cycle Low

@Fiorente2 — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 14:36:18 GMT

A reader asked me in May for my view on Treasury Bonds. TLT is sitting close to where it all began in July 2002, near a multi-decade low. I got distracted with other work, so apologies for the delay. With stocks at all-time highs, I had not looked at bonds for a while.

The 30-33 year cycle

The TLT-20+ Treasury Bond ETF is nearing the bottom from where it all started in July 2002. There seems to be a 30-33 year cycle probably related to Saturn in TLT.

Looking from the helio perspective the crest was set at an 18-year cycle high, on the Saturn-Pluto conjunction (at the same degree) in early 2020.

TLT - Monthly Chart since July 2002, with the 30-33 year Saturn cycle and the early-2020 crest at the Saturn-Pluto conjunction.

The Saturn-Pluto cycle is a 30-33 year cycle that seems active in the bond market right now. As shown on TLT 20+ Treasury Bond ETF on the chart above it may take some years from now to bottom out.

Current readings and levels

The Saturn planetary lines from the crest and November 2018 have tended to act as support and resistance, and on this 30-33 year cycle I would watch them into the Pluto-square-Saturn window around May 2031, with the Saturn-Pluto opposition near May 2036 in case the cycle gets extended.

At today’s levels (June 4th, 2026) a move and hold above AVWAP1 89.41 and 96.40 would favor the bullish case. A close back below 89.41 after that would keep the bearish case alive. Until then I would expect TLT to move sideways for quite some time, as indicated on the chart.

The sunspot angle

There seems to be a relationship with Sunspot highs and lows. When TLT started trading the Sunspots were close to a maximum, and the 18-year cycle high in TLT also fell at a Sunspot maximum.

There is a 9–11-year cycle in Sunspots, and it is not just eyeballed: the spectrum analysis I ran to extract the dominant Hurst cycle picks it out as a clear peak (see the chart below). So, the cycle itself is on firm footing.

Sunpsots - Monthly & NBER recessions, with the 129-month Hurst cycle and its second harmonic.

The link to recessions is the looser part, and I would be careful calling it a recession signal on this data alone. TLT has only traded since July 2002, so this is one cycle of its own history, something I am watching rather than a rate I would stand behind.

Current expectations do not put the next Sunspot low before 2030, which may coincide with the next Saturn heliocentric cycle transition.

Short-term timing and the stocks-bonds view

On the shorter term you may look at Mercury, Mars-Pluto, Venus, Venus-Uranus moves in TLT. I think Mars-Pluto aspects are worth watching most. On the Chicago Board of Trade first-trade chart (midheaven at 23 Gemini), Mars, Venus and Mercury aspects line up with bond turns often enough that I follow them.

This may favor stocks above bonds for some time to come. I would expect the larger investors to stay with stocks until the bond cycle turns, which is part of why I see a more range-bound move in bonds, give or take the occasional dip or rebound.

This is my bias for now. Anomalies can occur. Cycles can contract, extend and invert

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

AVWAP (Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price): the average price paid since a chosen anchor point, weighted by volume. It acts as a dynamic support and resistance level from that anchor forward

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

@Fiorente2 — Thu, 29 Sep 2022 17:19:38 GMT

Introduction

In general, if one is interested to invest in bonds, it is said best to avoid bonds (such as the TLT (which follows the 20-year Treasury bond) when interest rates are expected to be on the rise in the near future.

Currently the Fed is ‘fighting’ inflation by raising interest rates and today at the time of writing, the Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester commented that “the Fed is still not even in restrictive territory on the Funds rate”, and ..“‘I’d still like to see long-term inflation expectations lower”, ..“also want to see continued progress on realized inflation”. 1

Having run a cycle analysis on the Producer Price Index by All Commodities as a means to look at inflation revealed that inflation may have seen the highest point (red composite cycle in below chart) already and that the Fed’s policy may actually work.

However, looking at above chart, the Fed may well be right that the fight for inflation is not over yet as the 15-year cycle may continue to rise for some time into next year, although most smaller cycles are on the downturn already. It may take a while before the longer-term 15-year cycle will turn over.

The continued expectation that the Fed may have to raise interest rates in the near future in general does not look good for iShares TLT - the 20+year Treasury Bond ETF.

In the last two weeks we have seen a lot of volatility in TLT that made me and some other premium subscribers interested what was happening on TLT. Has TLT made a bottom yet?

I do not have any professional qualifications in Economics. The world of inflation, interest rates may be difficult to grasp for many of us but all of us experience the effects in our day to day lives. So, this may be of interest to all of us and in this post I will be looking at the cycles and Gann timing lines to see where the trend in TLT seem to be heading to. The premium subscribers can read further in below post on this analysis looking at the longer and shorter trend and cycles in TLT.

Disclosure: No positions in TLT at the time of writing

This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles have many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend and invert. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Read our full disclaimer.

@Fiorente2’s Blog: Treasury Bonds