Last week (#318) I posted an update on BTCUSD using the Hexagon grid, both in price and time. I used 90 degree increments in price and plotted 60 degree time increments from the April 7th, 2025 low. Eyeballing the grid, it fitted the turns in Bitcoin rather well.

In less than a week, volatility returned to Bitcoin. It ran straight through the $66K and $74K resistance lines from last week’s post and now trades near $77K price level, close to the $81K-$82K zone.

In today’s post I have revisited the Hexagon grid and plotted the time grid from the crest of October 6th, 2025, which may give even better potential turning points around it. Given the foldback came earlier than expected, I have adjusted it too, now plotting it from the July 3rd, 2026 cycle return around the Hexagon cube.

Let me walk you through my analysis.

The Hexagon Cube

The below Hexagon cube starts with the October 6th, 2025 crest in the center. Moving a day at a time, you may find important turning points at each 360 degree turn on this cube, like we saw recently in May, July and perhaps the upcoming date of September 1st, 2026. I have highlighted these on the horizontal axis.

I also highlighted each 60 degree corner in the above chart, and this may give interesting turning points as well. The next corner is this weekend, on August 22nd, and the next one, September 1st, 2026, is the 360 degree turn around this cube.

I have plotted some of the dates and the upcoming corners on the below Chart 2 along with the price levels in equal parts of 90 degrees as explained in my post a week ago.

Where price and time meet, these often become inflection points, where the trend can continue or revert. The 90 degree price level increments are important levels, as you know. In a building, a 90 degree angle is a hard angle to break.

Bitcoin Hexagon Grid (updated)

In the below chart I have updated the hexagon grid in time from the October 6th, 2025 high. I have marked in blue the dates that complete a 360 degree turn in time around the cube. The 90 degree price levels remain as explained in last week’s post. This is how to overlay the Hexagon cube on a 2-dimensional chart.

The foldback has been plotted on the above chart from the July 3rd, 2026 date and is still pointing to where possible resistance may be found. Note: at some point in time these foldback scenarios may cease to function.

You may recall what Gann wrote about support-and-resistance lines.

This works for bottoms as well. So, despite the foldback scenario pointing at a more positive forecast for Bitcoin, I have not yet abandoned my June Bitcoin forecast to trade lower to the $54K level.

Conclusion

As I mentioned last week, a push through the $66K level may bring Bitcoin back toward $74K and the $81K-$82K zone, where the May 2026 high and the 270 degree hexagon level line up.

There is quite some resistance here. This would be the third time this year and the fourth time since the October 2025 crest that Bitcoin may revisit this $81K-$82K price level. Remembering Gann’s words about old support and resistance, a push through this level may invalidate my foldback scenario. On the other hand, note what he said about the fourth time.

Keep in mind, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I have no crystal ball, and a Hexagon grid only maps the ground. Always watch the chart in front of you. Be careful out there. No advice.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
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Recently Olga Morales posted on X (formerly Twitter) a chart with planetary lines on which Bitcoin trades and pointed to a Gann quote, that bottoms become tops and tops become bottoms. I remember that line as it came straight from the Stock Market Course (1955) where a rally to an old bottom is a short sale “because bottoms become tops and tops become bottoms”. This is Gann’s support-and-resistance rule. You can plot planetary lines to plot these support-and-resistance lines, or calculate the most important lines using a hexagon.

Since we have hit a $60K floor several times, this is a good moment for an update on Bitcoin. I will use a hexagon grid as I can plot both price and time using the same method.

In a recent post (#315), I have introduced Gann’s theory around the hexagon or cube.1 In the post today on Bitcoin I will plot the hexagon corners in time and corresponding price levels, which may show that using a hexagon chart or grid can be a good tool in analyzing an equity like Bitcoin.

The Hexagon Grid

In the hexagon grid I overlaid on Bitcoin (see chart 1), I have calculated the hexagon corners in time using a start date of April 7th, 2025, which was a remarkable and important date in time in many financial markets. The past vertical lines are plotted in gray, 60 degrees apart. The future and yet to come dates are plotted in dotted blue vertical lines, and follow the same logic.

For price I have divided the hexagon calculation into equal parts of 90 degrees in price. Note that each 90 degree level on the Bitcoin chart, plotted from 1 onwards, has given good support and resistance levels so far. You can clearly see that when the price level increases, the steps between each following level widen.

Where price and time meet, these often become inflection points, where the trend can continue or revert. The 90 degree price level increments are important levels, as you know. In a building, a 90 degree angle is a hard angle to break.

Did Bitcoin find a potential floor

Recently Bitcoin has twice traveled a 360-degree price level from last year’s October top. The 60K price level has been touched three times so far.

In my recent post in June (#312), I expected Bitcoin to find support at a $54K price level, into a June-October time window. The August 1 Mars-Uranus date I flagged there has passed, with Bitcoin still near $62K, so my lower target is still open. Currently, Bitcoin is trading between the $60K and $66K price levels and neither of them has been broken. This sideways move can continue for some time, and when broken the next higher or lower price level may come into the picture.

The foldback pattern drawn at the end of July is my bias for now, but as written many times before, a foldback pattern may cease to function any further at some point in time.

You may recall what Gann wrote about support-and-resistance lines.

This works for bottoms as well. So, despite the foldback scenario, pointing at a more positive forecast for Bitcoin, I have not yet abandoned my June Bitcoin forecast to trade lower to the $54K level.

Conclusion

When Bitcoin falls through the $60K level from above, I expect BTCUSD may continue its down trend to a $53K-$54K price level, probably by early October 2026. On the other hand, a push through the $66K level may bring Bitcoin back toward $74K and the $81K-$82K zone, where the May 2026 high and the 270 degree hexagon level line up.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I have no crystal ball, and a hexagon grid only maps the ground. Always watch the chart in front of you. Be careful out there. No advice.

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In my January 18, 2026 post “The Moment Of Truth For Bitcoin II”, I set a bias that Bitcoin would follow the 4-year cycle down toward roughly $54,000 between June and October 2026, with a foldback off the winter high. That bias rests on two Mars-Uranus helio cycles, which I charted in that January post.

Bitcoin trades near $64,200 today, inside that window but above the target.

Where the cycle low stands

BTCUSD is approaching my target area around the Mars-Uranus conjunction of August 1, 2026.

The semi-circles on the chart are two Mars-Uranus cycles: a 3.9-year cycle (almost 4 years), or about 1,400 calendar days. Two similar fractals, F1 into 2021 and F2 into 2025, have now almost folded back to the lower rising channel trendline.

Price near 64,237 sits below the 73,802 level overhead and above the target zone at 54,290 to 52,552. The window runs into mid-October, with the chart marking July 27, August 1, and October 16, 2026.

Continuation lower toward 54,290 needs the channel support to give way. One caveat to make: the 4-year low last turned on the Mars-Uranus helio aspect once, in November 2022. That is a single instance, too few to call a hit rate, so I watch the chart here, not the calendar.

A low around this time may not mark the end of the decline. The foldback fits a larger head-and-shoulders pattern that could unfold much lower, into the 30,000 level, after a sideways move into year-end.

A weekly close back above the 73,802 foldback level would invalidate the lower target and point higher.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is inside the June to October window at around 64,200, above the 54,290 to 52,552 target. Continuation needs the channel to break, and a weekly close back above 73,802 would invalidate it. The Mars-Uranus timing rests on one past instance, so I’m giving the chart more weight than the count.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next Bitcoin update the moment the channel breaks toward the target. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

BTCUSD dropped fiercely into the beginning of the Jupiter Retrograde period in mid-November 2025. This was most likely caused by the Venus-Pluto (Helio cycle), which BTCUSD has been mirroring since August 2025. As BTCUSD approached the Venus-Pluto conjunction on January 17th, 2026 and a new cycle started, we may be approaching the next Moment of Truth for Bitcoin.

Let’s review the various charts I posted earlier on November 9 and November 25th, 2025

Bitcoin - Weekly Log Chart

On Nov 9th, I posted the weekly chart below, on a log scale, I have drawn the long-term channel that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading in.

You can read the analysis here. (click on link)

The same updated chart, shown below, shows BTCUSD trading within the channel plotted on the chart.

Aligning the low (15400) in time: 154 weeks was a good estimate for Bitcoin to find support. Bitcoin did not go as low as my price target of $79,700 in 798 days (meant to be 797 days), but that did not come from the (lower) and more important November 2022 low. As Gann learned: “Time is more important than Price”.

Although BTCUSD is trading near the lower trading channel, I’m not entirely convinced that the path will continue as indicated by the red dashed arrows, since Bitcoin has been following the Venus-Pluto Helio cycle in an almost perfect mirror image foldback since August 2025.

Venus Pluto (Helio) Cycle

My reservations are based on my analysis I posted back on November 24th, 2025. See the chart below. You will find the Substack note here. (click on the link.

So far, BTCUSD has been following the Venus-Pluto Helio Cycle in a mirror image foldback, as you can see in the updated chart below.

You can see in the above chart that every 180 degrees, Venus-Pluto helio, the trend changes (follow the half circles at the bottom of the chart). This is around the time the Jupiter Retrograde period will end (March 11th, 2026), just three days before Venus squares Pluto on March 15th, 2026.

The foldback may end on March 15th, with an inversion of the mirror image foldback, but this does not usually happens as you can see in the chart below.

We are now at the Venus-Pluto heliocentric conjunction (0-degree separation, which is at the same degree). You can see that over the last 12 cycles, it may have given some downward pressure.

A recovery from this into February 17th, 2026, may be the next moment in truth after Venus and Pluto hit the 49-degree separation. There is a 60-70% chance this is a likely outcome.

You can see there are some variations over the last 2, 5, or 9 cycles. The foldback may end here, with a possibility after a first decline into a rebound into March 15th, 2026, around the Venus square Pluto aspect.

If the corrections end between February 17 and March 15th, 2026 (give it some leverage of 1-2 weeks on either side), the longer-term outlook may be bearish for Bitcoin.

Longer-Term Trend

The 4-year cycle low in Bitcoin is expected around June to October 2026. Last time this cycle in November 2022, turned around the Mars conjunct Uranus Helio aspect (at the same degree). I have circled these aspects in red.

Moreover, you can see in the above chart that if the foldback continues as plotted, turning on the Mars trine Uranus aspect when Mars is at a 120-degree separation from Uranus (January 27th, 2026), a Head and Shoulders Pattern may emerge. This could bring Bitcoin back to the $54,000 price level, anywhere between June and October 2026.

Conclusion

Since August last year, Bitcoin has been folding back on the Venus-Pluto Helio cycle. We are now at the start of a new 225-day cycle following the Venus-Pluto heliocentric conjunction (January 17th, 2026), which could initially exert downward pressure.

Not soon afterwards, at the Mars trine Uranus Helio aspect on January 27th, 2026, a Head and Shoulders pattern may emerge, and these planetary aspects may add energy (Mars) and volatility (Uranus) for more downward pressure, or an up and down rangebound move until March 15th, when Venus squares Pluto.

Either way, my longer-term thoughts on Bitcoin have a bias that from January 17th to March 15th, 2026, Bitcoin will likely follow the 4-year cycle down to a probable $54,000 price level between June and October 2026, as shown on the 4-year cycle chart.

This is my bias for now. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted various charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Some analysts suggest BTCUSD may have peaked and “should decline well over 40% in the next six months”, but I’m not convinced yet, as it remains within a long-term channel on the weekly log chart. We are now approaching a Jupiter Retrograde period. Bitcoin has often shown trend reversals during Jupiter Retrograde, often with significant volatility.

Bitcoin - Weekly Log Chart

In the weekly chart below, on a log scale, I have drawn the long-term channel that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading in.

Three years ago, BTCUSD hit its low after 53 weeks of a nearly-perfect $ 1,000-per-week decline from the November 10, 2021, high. It was a perfect time and price alignment (at a rate of $1,000/week).

Squaring the low of November 2022 around $15,400, 154 weeks later, we will be on November 11th, 2025. This is 788 trading days from the second higher low of September 15, 2023. Can BTCUSD decline to $78,800?

As seen in November 2022 (see the red box), when BTCUSD experienced a significant drop in just one week, this could happen again. We might even see an overshoot towards $75,000, which was around the low of April 7, 2025.

During Jupiter Retrograde periods in the past (drawn in purple), huge advances or declines have been noticed, so be careful during this period. So, it may go either way: even a short uptrend just after Jupiter goes Retrograde, followed by a continuation of the decline. (No advice).

Conclusion

This November period is the moment of truth for Bitcoin to see if it still has legs to reach higher highs. Huge advances and declines have been seen during Jupiter Retrograde periods so that it can go either way.

Bitcoin may even go sideways during the Jupiter Retrograde (Rx) period.

Many times in the past, Bitcoin has changed trend around mid- to late November. Hence, I do not rule out a final drop into the lower trend channel line around the time that Jupiter goes Retrograde (November 11, 2025), or within 2-3 weeks of that time.

However, any continuation of a decline in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) below the lower trend line (black) is most likely bearish.

This is my bias for now. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted various charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2025 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

BTCUSD has followed a parabolic trend channel formed by solid blue trend lines since the November 2022 low and may now be running out of time. Last Friday, on the 29th square in Price and Time, right on the parabolic trendline that has supported the market multiple times, volatility increased. When Price and Time are in balance, a change in trend may happen.

When equities are trading in a parabolic pattern, traditional technical analysis may not be the most effective way to analyze price trends and time targets. Parabolic trendlines could be a more suitable approach to pinpointing potential support and resistance levels in both price and time.

Subscribers may recall the (now updated) chart below from my posts on August 22, July 13, and March 17th, 2025.

How is this parabolic trendline constructed? I defined time increments as the square root of the low divided by 24, since Bitcoin is traded 24 hours a day. A 24 harmonic. By squaring the time increments and multiplying them by the square root of the low, we derive the price component. Note that I have a weekly chart here.

Bitcoin is currently trading below the lower parabolic trendline, which is expected to balance price and time around $120,119.11 by October 12th, 2025. This suggests that Bitcoin may have completed its Price and Time cycle at the square of 29 or 150 weeks.

However, BTCUSD might have found support on the red dashed parabolic trendline, which roughly started five weeks after the November 2022 low. If this support persists and the uptrend continues, the next target in price and time, indicated by the square of 30, is set for November 16th, 2025.

This date is close to 1/100 of the low in weeks (15,480.69/100), or approximately 155 weeks—three years after the 2022 low—and corresponds to a 36-degree move in Saturn from a geocentric viewpoint. Note: Bitcoin’s uptrend started when Jupiter turned direct at the November 2022 low, and often the trend in Bitcoin reversed around these retrograde periods.

As long as Bitcoin remains above the lower parabolic trendline (the lower dashed red line) and continues to make higher lows and higher highs, an uptrend is likely to persist. However, we might be running out of time, considering Bitcoin is at the end of a 3-year trend. Following a 36-degree shift in Saturn and with Jupiter turning retrograde (Rx) by November 11, 2025, this could signal that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is due for a change in trend.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively with free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates with these extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Looking at BTCUSD's past price behavior, it's clear that Bitcoin prices can spike rapidly over time, often due to an exponential or parabolic relationship between time and price.

Because the relationship between time and price follows a parabolic pattern, traditional technical analysis might not be the best way to analyze price trends and time targets in BTCUSD. Parabolic trendlines could be a more suitable approach to pinpointing potential support and resistance levels in both price and time.

As a premium subscriber, you may recall my Subscribers' post from July 12, which updated my March 17th post. It showed BTCUSD trading within a parabolic trend channel where time and price align.

Looking at the parabolic lines, you can see how the price jumps quickly over time because of the quadratic connection between time and price. The model above shows an accelerating parabolic trend, with prices rising sharply as time passes.

How has it been going so far?

$BTCUSD is now approaching a critical price point and time close to the lower parabolic line. Will this serve as the support it needs? In the medium term, there could be more going on beneath the surface than is immediately evident.

There is a medium-term synodic cycle that indicates Bitcoin repeats or inversely repeats past behaviors at key Planetary Angles, as shown in the chart below with vertical lines.

Follow the vertical lines that indicate key planetary angles from conjunction (at the same degree) to conjunction. Do you notice the repeating or reversing fractals? These planetary angles correspond with overbought or oversold zones, and that polarity can switch during this synodic cycle.

In this post, we will take a closer look at the planetary cycle that has been in alignment since last year, both in terms of price and time. Let’s explore what this means and how we can use a planetary cycle to understand potential changes in trends.

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Yesterday and today, Bitcoin ($BTC) has reached my initial target. I revisited the post from November 14th, providing an update on the charts along with some minor commentary updates.

As W.D. Gann said in his Stock Market Course: "Always watch a stock when Price is squared by Time, or when Time and Price come together."

In early 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a low of $38512. If we square this low over 385 calendar days by moving the decimal point to the left (385(12)), it would project Bitcoin’s price towards February 2025. This date assumes a high of around $108,000 on a vibration of $180/calendar day. This date has the potential to mark a high in both price and time, but this is not guaranteed. Changes in trend can occur anywhere along a 1x1 line where price and time intersect, 7/8 part in Part in Time and Price.

As mentioned in my last update, a square out in price and time could occur earlier. In my last post, I mentioned: “The square of 144 shows that we may be headed toward a price level of 96000 by November 16th, 2024, which is 72 days after the recent September low.” We hit that level recently, only a few days later. I also mentioned watching the $99000 level we reached yesterday, only 1 day earlier than expected.

As Bitcoin recently moved fast, I have updated the charts and commentary of my previous post below.

👉 P.S.: My annual forecast for Bitcoin in 2025 will be included in my Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2025. The 2025 edition of my annual publication is currently available for pre-order at a price of $45 until November 29th, 2024. For more details, please refer to last week’s post. (click on the link)

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In my last update on October 20th on Bitcoin, I assumed a breakout was in the making as Bitcoin was clearly making higher highs and higher lows. It did break out forcefully!

I love these breakouts from a baseline level. The longer it takes to break out of the range-bound move, the higher the price may move.

The range in price level itself may be a good indicator of when a square out in price and time may occur. Twice the range in price may be a good start.

In this post, I am looking at past cycles and the planetary ebb and flood of Bitcoin to see where the next change in trend in price and time may occur.

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While I was working on an update on cryptocurrencies for our premium subscribers yesterday, the value of all cryptocurrencies dropped significantly. J.M. Hurst's theory of the synchronicity of cycles suggests that this simultaneous decline in various cryptocurrencies may be linked to interconnected cycles or the principle of commonality in cycles, potentially contributing to this collective drop.

According to this theory, highs or lows may occur nearly simultaneously in many different issues. In stocks, we often see the various cycles dropping into a trough (low), and commodities may often synchronize into a peak (high).

This raises the intriguing possibility that seemingly independent events in the cryptocurrency market might be connected through underlying cyclical patterns. Understanding in advance where cycles may synchronize collectively into a trough (low) or crest (high) is key to understanding the cycle dynamics in any market, including the cryptocurrency market,

Today's cryptocurrency update (in pdf format - 15 pages) for our premium subscribers includes an analysis of the eight most important cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

I'll be focusing on their dominant cycles and providing insights into what to expect in terms of price and time in the near term from a Gann perspective. Understanding the cycle harmonics in cryptocurrencies could provide valuable insights for investors navigating the cryptocurrency market.

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In my recent post, "Bitcoin: The New Digital Gold?" I explored the similarities between Bitcoin, the USD dollar, and gold as investment assets. The intermarket relationships between the USD dollar and gold discussed may suggest that a crest has been set for now.

Furthermore, a foldback may have completed a topping phase, as seen in the chart below. It may continue, but remember that a mirror image foldback may cease to function at some point.

Venus and Mars are currently changing signs. Some speculate that their transition to Taurus and Aries could signal a bullish period for $BTCUSD. However, there have been too few cycles to confirm this hypothesis. On the contrary, as seen in the chart below, it could be volatile.

There is still a possibility that the recent topping phase has not finished yet. Let’s review some possible scenarios. The premium subscribers can read it from here.

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As mentioned in The Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2023:

“Uranus rules surprise and all things unexpected. It also rules the future and new technology and may apply to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Uranus was Retrograde on the crest of 2021 [and on the trough of 2022]. As was Jupiter that rules supply and Saturn that rules demand”.

We are close to Jupiter and Uranus going retrograde again in the next 14 days, while Saturn is already Retrograde(Rx). Will this move the crypto coins to higher highs or lower lows?

Recently, in mid-July 2023, I tweeted the below chart showing a Mars-Uranus cycle of 90 and 30 degrees Helio that started from important lows in the past. Currently, these cycle clusters pinpoint important changes in trends around these dates.

There was a clear change in trend at the end of July-early August 2023. As mentioned in the Stock Market Outlook 2023 and later updates, we have not seen the low yet in BTC-USD and ETH-USD.

The premium subscribers can read beyond the below paywall. Remember, your premium subscription allows you access to these exclusive insights. Happy reading!

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Navigating Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) dynamic landscape, Bitcoin stand at a potentially pivotal juncture. An Elliott Wave might be nearing completion, though confirmation is pending. By mid-June 2023, we might see this wave reach its peak if not already unfolded. However, Bitcoin's current position is beneath key resistance levels and the unfolding of future trends require careful analysis.

The premium subscribers can read beyond below paywall. Remember, your premium subscription allows you access to these exclusive insights. Happy reading!

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This update is for premium subscribers only.

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It has been a while since I posted on $BTC-USD here on Substack, and it is time for an update and new analysis since the low of December 14th, 2022.

My recent analysis of Bitcoin was published in December 2022 in the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2023. Most of the subscribers may have seen this analysis. Although Bitcoin has recently corrected from its low in December 2022, I have yet to change my mind about the longer-term trend.

In the last update, I wrote: “$BTC-USD may be heading towards a possible 4-year cycle low mid-December 2022.” There is limited cycle history to confirm if there is a 4-year cycle in Bitcoin, but Bitcoin may well have started on a 4-year cycle.

The current rebound may be only a countertrend in a longer-term downtrend. After many years of a bullish signature, expect at least a 1-2 year correction. Time is more important than price.

The Geometry in the below chart tells me Bitcoin has squared out in price and time on December 14th from its high in April 2021. A square out from the all-time high (November 2021) is not expected before August-September 2023. This is at the end of the circle (cycle) drawn on the chart. So, the downtrend may still be ongoing.

Bitcoin has recently found a bottom and is trading above the lower Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price(AVWAP: $20571). This is a good sign. It is early days, and the next AVWAP, which may form resistance, is at $33110; before we get there, we need to cross the Over Balance Point (OPB)1 from below.

The Elliott Wave theory tells me several other scenarios are still possible, as annotated on the chart. The longer-term trend is still to the downside, as it may still be early for a Wave II, of a more significant degree, to have been completed. It may be premature to conclude that the December 14th 2022, low will not be crossed to the downside.

So, from an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin may either be in a Wave B of a more significant ABC wave (not shown on the chart) or in an alt Wave IV of some degree, after which the downtrend may continue. From a Geometry and Gann perspective, this scenario is my bias. This could bring Bitcoin back to 61.8% from the top in a bullish environment, which is a 38.2% retracement.

Measured moves (grey arrows) in time may indicate Bitcoin may be close to a change in trend. The blue vertical dashed lines on the chart are midpoints of past and future Solar and Lunar eclipses. They often act as a hotspot to which a stock, currency, commodity or index is drawn. So, the upcoming period may become quite volatile. On these midpoints, Bitcoin could make a change in trend or even invert.

Our premium subscribers can read further on this analysis in the post I’ve included below.

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To celebrate the 1st Anniversary on Substack, we offer all our free subscribers a 7-day free trial until February 14th, 2023. It is a limited-time offer. Hereafter, our subscription prices for new subscribers will be raised.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles has many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend and invert. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. Trading futures, options, and stocks is a high-risk business. Fiorente2 Newsletter does not offer trade advice. Please take a look at our full disclaimer.

Disclosure: Indirect Positions at the time of writing

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During my holidays back in June 19th 2022 I made a quick update on $BTC-USD for a possible square out and change in trend for our premium subscribers. It is time for an update.

On June 19th 2022 I wrote: “Doing a quick price/time analysis on my mobile phone, I found that $BTC-USD may be close to a square out in 225 days at a daily rate of $225 per day. I found that an interesting observation. A low of $18354 has been reached in the past few days, slightly short of 225 days from top. On the Square of Nine a price of 183(00) is opposite 225(days), … “$BTC-USD may have found support here (for now), it may still go lower if time is not up yet and prices do not recover soon above $29500, and …it may be too soon to conclude if $BTC-USD has found support recently or in the next few days at 225 days from All Time High. This seems to be an ideal Gann square out, but cycles can continue if time has not run out yet…”. See our previous post here.

I was right about that timing and until now the rebound seems only to be a consolidation. In my third edition on the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook in early May 2022 I already signaled the lack of volume to sustain a further uptrend. I do not think this has changed yet. Currently the high prices in energy does not help crypto- miners in mining new Bitcoins due to the increasing energy needed for mining these.

Perhaps $BTC-USD is now trading towards a 4-year cycle low, but there is limited cycle history to confirm if there is a 4-year cycle in Bitcoin.

Since The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank has banned Bitcoin and mining of it and announced it on September 24th 2022, shortly afterwards Bitcoin made its highest high on November 9th 2021. This was 49 days after the September 21st 2021 low which made me think whether the decision was made on that day.

Chinese people once owned the most Bitcoin’s in the world. This may explain the lack of volume experienced since then and if the current trend continues $BTC-USD will vibrate into zero value. Time is ticking away towards that point.

Recently on June 22nd 2022 "The South China Morning Post posted an article “Bitcoin market meltdown prompts fresh warning in China that value of world’s leading cryptocurrency could fall to zero”

This reminded me of the 1637 Tulipomania. You may read more about it here.

The upswing of Tulips back in 1634 started in December and ended on February 5th in 1637. This may be similar to the start of the $BTC-USD upswing in December 2018 and perhaps an ultimate low in February 2023?

The current vibration in Bitcoin seems to be heading towards that same timeframe in spring early next year. Looking into further into it and: considering the Chinese ban on Bitcoin, the day the announcement was made that may have triggered the fall in $BTC-USD, I made below analysis for our premium subscribers. In this analysis I am putting the Pythagorean theory and the law of vibration to work.

Disclosure: Indirect positions in $BTC-USD

This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles have many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend and invert. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Read our full disclaimer.

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This is a short update on a possible square out on $BTC-USD for my paid subscribers here on Substack.

Although enjoying time-off I could not resist sharing my thoughts on the recent downturn of Bitcoin with my paid subscribers in below post. During my time-off, billing is off (paused) until I resume work at the end of this month. P.S.: I will not accept new paid subscribers during this time.

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In the past have provided a $BTCUSD projection for 2022. Early paid subscribers can read it here on substack or in my first two issues of our Fiorente Stock Market Outlook 2022 on Gumroad. I have updated my $BTCUSD analysis on substack and added analysis on $ETHUSD for our paid subscribers here on substack.

The earlier $BTCUSD forecast was based on a foldback foreseen and a planetary aspect known as a Venus Saturn Uranus T-square (Heliocentric) which was unfolding on January 24th 2022 and recently in March 21st-23rd 2022. Because of this I was expecting a double bottom in March, but it really took off to day after we have left this influence.

In reviewing $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD in the last two days these crypto currencies really seemed to have found a bottom and heading back to past highs. There is some planetary geometry which could foretell us where these two currencies are probably heading to.

I personally took some positions already (but this is no advice; only disclosure) and our paid subscribers can read more about this further on our analysis on $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD in below part of this post.

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In the last update on BTCUSD update I wrote:

In the Stock Market Outlook (published on Gumroad) on page 35 I wrote about the probable path for BTC/USD in 2022 based on the foldback that seemed to be unfolding at that moment in time. The foldback or mirroring from the November 2021 crest, and back towards to the starting point where it came from is often seen when planets are on a retrograde(Rx) movement. So far BTC/USD has followed this path, will it continue?

You can see in below weekly chart the top is 45 weeks from the breakout early January 2021 which is an important time period, as W.D. Gann mentioned in his Stock Market Course:

"The weekly movement gives the next important minor change in trend, which may turn out to be a major change in trend." W.D. Gann Stock Market Course (1955)

Head & Shoulders pattern

In addition to this if you look closely we see a Heads & Shoulders top pattern unfolding, which is a kind of mirroring pattern unfolding from the crest.

Dividing the range from low 2020 to top 2021 in three parts, you can see the neckline on 2/3’s of the price range. So, in a Heads & Shoulders pattern you could expect $BTCUSD to go 1/3 from neckline to a baseline as a target for future support. This is right on the level where $BTCUSD really broke out early January 2021.

Although according to statistics1, the expected low for this Heads & Shoulder pattern may have been reached the price target, which is measured on 23% from neckline as an average decline as researched by Thomas Bulkowski.

Geometry and time perspective

If geometry and symmetry repeats the recent low seems perhaps to be too early in time. So, from a time perspective then I would not expect this pattern to be completed before end of February early March 2022. This is probably 20 weeks from crest, around end of February to mid-March 2022.

Our paid subscribers to the monthly update of our Stock Market Outlook 2022 on Gumroad have received a full complimentary update. For our paid subscribers on substack I will further discuss my more detailed analysis with a clear projection on the ideal price/time alignment for the expected low to occur. I may be wrong of course as unfolding patterns and Head & Shoulder patterns do have a failure rate. So, always watch the chart in front of you. No Advice. Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

Disclosure: No positions at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

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In the Stock Market Outlook on page 35 I wrote about the probable path for BTC/USD in 2022 based on the foldback that seemed to be unfolding at that moment in time. The foldback or mirroring from the November 2021 crest, and back towards to the starting point where it came from is often seen when planets are on a retrograde(Rx) movement. So far BTC/USD has followed this path, will it continue?

We already sent an update to our Stock Market Outlook customers a few days ago. Now this update is available on Fiorente2.substack.com paid section as well. Read more…

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