This is the third edition of the World Indices report, first launched in June/July of this year, exclusively for Substack premium readers. It is in PDF format.

The report focuses on the main trends in the World Indices, covering the USA, UK, and European indices such as the Dutch AEX, the German DAX, and the French CAC40. Moving east from the GMT, it also includes India’s Nifty50, China’s Shanghai, Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), Nikkei225 (Japan), and the Australian All Ordinaries Index.

In this edition of Global Indices, we will focus on identifying the primary trend following the dominant cycle. Each chart will include annotated Gann Timing lines to illustrate the overall trend direction. The report includes breakout/reversal levels. Additional overlays, such as Gann Fan timing lines, planetary aspects, and dominant cycles, are added where appropriate.

As mentioned in last weekend’s update, I have been working to improve my artificial intelligence model that uses statistics on past planetary aspects to forecast future market direction. Considering the limitations of the earlier model, including its use of polarity and valuation of various aspects, I revisited the works of the old masters and improved the model by using the NYSE natal chart as a basis. W.D. Gann, McWhirter, and many others have been known to match future price and time inflection points with planetary aspects from various natal charts or important events.

I will use this model to establish a direction bias on a month-to-month basis. Today, premium subscribers can already access the August forecast for the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the DJIA behind the paywall. Next week, I will provide a forecast for the Nasdaq Composite, SPX, and DJIA until the end of the year as part of the Stock Market Outlook 2024. In the meantime, I will be working on similar models for all asset classes I follow, which will serve as the basis for future forecasts.

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In addition, Venus opposed Pluto on August 9, 2022. This same planetary aspect is unfolding again on July 12, 2024. Thus, there are noticeable similarities between these planetary aspects, past high and a potential upcoming peak in the $SPX.

The last Mars-Uranus conjunction on August 1st, 2022, marked a significant turning point two weeks later. A low point occurred one day before the Mars-Uranus Helio conjunctions on October 13th, 2022.

Based on Gann Fan lines, which #Gann himself referred to as timing lines, there may be strong resistance at the intersection of timing lines from the August 2022 market high and the subsequent lows and highs as plotted on the chart. All of this adds to the probability that we may see a change in trend soon.

The question arises: will history repeat itself, or will this time be different? I'm not providing any advice, but it's essential to recognize that cycles can contract, extend, or invert.

Note that a 666-day cycle may connect the low of October 2022 with August 9th, 2024. As Gann noted in his Stock Market Course: "August 8th is a very important date for the change in trend, and you should watch stocks that make tops around this date."

Markets can turn at any planetary aspect, and other cycles are unfolding in mid-August that may fit this analysis.

So, it's important to be patient and always wait for confirmation of a peak or a bottom.

Thank you for reading. More analysis on this topic will be featured in the upcoming Fiorente2 Newsletter this week. If you enjoyed this article, please like, restack, and follow me.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational & educational purposes. It should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future results or considered professional advice. Please take a look at our full disclaimer. (Click on the link)

Disclosure: Indirect positions in the US Indices at the time of writing.

This article was first published on X(Twitter). Click on the link.

Get ready for exclusive updates! Starting this week, I will provide regular US and global indices analyses, a service exclusively for our premium subscribers. You can expect updates at least twice a month, keeping you constantly informed about the latest global market trends. Moreover, I will continue to deliver separate reports on the DJIA and SPX, aligning with the 60-year Gann Master Cycle. Get prepared to stay ahead of the curve!

This change will empower me to invest more time in crypto and commodities and conduct in-depth analyses of the top 20 US stocks, ensuring you get the most value from your subscription. The top 20 US Stocks report will be part of an exclusive annual plan—a foundational tier at a competitive price that includes all our reports and posts. Please stay tuned for more updates.

The Global Indices report, included in this post for premium subscribers, will focus on following the primary trend using a trend-following indicator that analyses the average true range over the last ten days, weeks, or months. As you can see on the chart to the right, this will provide an overview of the main trends for several indices.

Each chart will be annotated with Gann Timing lines illustrating the overall trend direction. Additional overlays will be added with Gann Fan lines, planetary aspects, and dominant cycles where appropriate. In the future, I may include other analyses of global indices using various Gann, technical, or fundamental techniques.

The Fiorente 2 World Indices Report is a bi-monthly report covering the leading world stock market indices. It is available in a convenient 17-page PDF format for Substack premium subscribers.

The downloadable report contains analyses of the following leading world indices: DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 - Emini, UK - FTSE 100, Dutch – AEX, German – DAX, France - CAC40, India - NSEI (Nifty 50), China - SSEC (China Shanghai Index), Hong Kong - HSI (Hang Seng Index), Japan - Nikkei 225, and Australia - ASX AO.

Stay tuned. Next week, I will also release an exclusive PDF report on crypto and commodities for our premium subscribers.

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Recently, a premium subscriber requested an analysis of India’s Nifty Bank Index. The Nifty Bank Index, also known as Nifty Bank, is a specialized index that comprises the most liquid and highly capitalized Indian banking stocks. It serves as a benchmark that reflects the capital market performance of Indian bank stocks for investors and market intermediaries.

The index consists of 12 highly liquid and extensively capitalized stocks from the banking industry, such as HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., Axis Bank Ltd., Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., and State Bank of India. The performance of these top banking stocks determines the index's movement.

To calculate the Bank Nifty index, the free float market capitalization method is used and rebalanced semi-annually. Investors and market intermediaries can access the latest Nifty closing report daily, which provides them with the most up-to-date information on the performance of Bank stocks in Nifty.

Since June 2022, the Nifty Bank index has been on an upward trend. However, in mid-August 2023, it appeared to have reversed course. Currently, the index is trading below its 50-day moving average and indicating an oversold market as the Slow Stochastic Indicator shows.

It is uncertain whether the index will go back above the 50-day moving average, or decline further towards the 200-day moving average or even below. Technical analysis can only identify overbought or oversold conditions and may not provide insight into market cycles or when a trend is likely to end.

In this post, I analyzed the Nifty Bank Index step-by-step to demonstrate additional ways to analyze and forecast its future direction. One can add another layer of analysis, such as looking for market patterns or symmetry using planetary and time cycles, to gain a better understanding of the possible underlying market movements.

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The correlation between the US Indices and the Hang Seng Index is not very strong. The relative comparison and correlation with the SPX and other US Indices may bring a thesis that the Hang Seng Index may react to the contrary when the US Indices turn to the downside.

Although the chart above at times may suggest otherwise, this year, the Hang Seng Index moved in the opposite direction of the US Markets. If investors withdraw their funds from the US Markets, they may invest in other regions, such as Hong Kong. After all, the money has to go somewhere.

Therefore, it would be wise to examine the current state of the Hang Seng Index. The article for today discusses the 15-year cycle, other time cycles, and a Gann Mass Pressure forecast, which may provide insight into the future direction of this index. I hope you find it informative and enjoyable to read.

This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles has many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend, and invert. Anomalies can occur. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Please take a look at our full disclaimer.

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India, as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies, plays a significant role in the global economic landscape. With a population of over 1.3 billion, it is a massive market for goods and services, and its rapidly expanding middle class is driving demand for a wide range of products, from consumer electronics to automobiles and luxury goods. This demand has a ripple effect on global supply chains, influencing production and employment in countries around the world.

The Nifty50 index, a barometer of India's stock market and overall economic health, reflects this diversity. As of January 1, 2023, the sectors with the highest weightage in the Nifty50 index are Financial Services (37.70%), IT (13.96%), and Oil & Gas (12.69%). Other significant sectors include FMCG, Automobile, Healthcare, and Metals & Mining.

These sectors' growth is fuelled by factors such as public investment in infrastructure, private sector investment, technological innovation, and shifting consumer tastes. For instance, the technology sector is a global hub for software development and IT services, contributing to technological innovation worldwide. Similarly, the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries are growing due to increased demand for medical services and products.

The top five companies in the Nifty50 index as seen in the past few years:

1. Reliance Industries Ltd.: This conglomerate has a diverse portfolio that includes sectors such as energy, petrochemicals, natural gas, retail, telecommunications, mass media, and textiles.

2. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.: A leading global IT services, consulting, and business solutions organization.

3. HDFC Bank Ltd.: One of India's leading banking and financial services companies.

4. Infosys Ltd.: A multinational corporation that provides business consulting, information technology, and outsourcing services.

5. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.: A premier company specializing in housing finance.

India's economy is also notable for its vibrant tech sector, which has become a global hub for software development and IT services. Indian tech companies not only serve international clients but also contribute to technological innovation worldwide. The growth of this sector has led to increased foreign direct investment and has positioned India as a key player in the global digital economy.

Moreover, India's role in the global economy extends to its influence on energy markets. As one of the world's largest consumers of oil and coal, India's energy policies and consumption patterns can significantly impact global energy prices and the strategies of energy-producing countries.

However, it's important to note that India's economic development also presents challenges that can affect the global economy. For instance, economic instability in India, such as fluctuations in its currency or stock market, can have ripple effects on global financial markets. Additionally, as India continues to industrialize, it faces significant environmental challenges, including air and water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which have global implications.

In the recent years India's growth and industrialization made India the third largest producer of green house gas emissions after China and the USA.

"A soaring population and a fast-growing economy have resulted in India’s emissions rising dramatically in recent decades. This growth has seen India become the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), after China and the U.S.” 1

India's pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and to derive 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by the same year introduces a delicate balancing act.2 While this transition opens up new investment opportunities in clean energy, it also poses potential economic challenges, including the risk of lower GDP growth.

In conclusion of this introduction, India's economy is deeply intertwined with the global economy. Its growth and development have far-reaching impacts, influencing global supply and demand, technological innovation, energy markets, and environmental conditions. As such, understanding India's economic trajectory is crucial for anyone interested in the future of the global economy.

What does the Nifty50 forecast signal about the future of the global economy and the state of India’s economy? Has the Nifty50 seen its crest yet? Read more in below update on the Nifty50.

This analysis is intended for general informational & educational purposes only. Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles has many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend, and invert. Anomalies can occur. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Please take a look at our full disclaimer.

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In the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2023, published in December 2022, I included a forecast for the Hang Seng Index a year ahead. Until the end of March 2023, you can still get a copy at a reduced price here: on my Gumroad website (click on the link)

Premium subscribers can read the full post below.

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On August 12th 2021 I posted an analysis on India’s Nifty50 index as I foresaw a top coming in around 18000 anywhere between October and December 2021 and it did. Today a reader on Twitter, retweeted this post you can read here (I replied with updated data on that old chart as well).

My newest analysis and last update on the Nifty50 was on May 1st 2022 in the third edition of the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook. This pdf report (click on link to see the content) included many other indices around the world. Premium subscribers to our services can still obtain a back issue at considerable discount (link provided in below post).

Today I have updated this analysis on this index for our premium subscribers here on Substack in below post. The paid subscribers can read further on the latest update following two important harmonics of the Gann Master Cycle and what to expect in the next few months.

Hypothetical or simulated performance based on past cycles have many limitations. Cycles can contract, extend and invert. Hence, past performance is no guarantee for the future. No advice. Read our disclaimer.

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A brand new edition of Fiorente2's Stock Market Outlook has just been published.

This is already the third edition.

Featuring the main stock market trends for 2022 and beyond for the DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTS100, DAX, Nifty50, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225 and ASX AO, CRB-Index Crude Oil, Gold $ Silver, Bitcoin, USD Index.

As the market developed since the first two publications I have further improved the analysis and longer term outlook. This bear market may continue for some time.

As always I am using a variety of different Gann, Cycle and technical analysis techniques. Analysis that is available in a 39 pages easy to read pdf format.

Price is very affordable: $34 (USD) for a limited time of until May 12th 2022 12.00 CET. Hereafter the price will increase to $48 (USD)

Link to latest May 2022 Third Edition. You will be taken to our website on Gumroad.

P.S. Read our customer reviews on the Stock Market Outlook.

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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HKSE) consists of the top 30 Chinese companies. Alibaba companies and JD.com are well known companies for many in the World. Since the high on November 1st 2007, this index has made lower highs and lower lows and traded almost sideways for almost 15 years. Fifteen years is half of a Saturn cycle. Also stocks normally make a change in trend every 5 years. As Saturn is also known as father time the question raises is the Index about to turn?

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HKSE)

When analysing this index, I started with a monthly chart (as shown below) and I looked for dominant cycles. There seems to be a persistent 23 months cycle, which is half of the 4.5-year cycle which is a dominant cycle in the Hang Seng.

When I was further looking into what cycle may be the cause of it, I found that the Hang Seng index made a top in November 1st 2007 when Mars was at 101°5. On the low of October 27th 2008, the index made a low when Mars was 225° degree from top 2007 at half the Mars cycle. The market made a change in trend and on September 12th Mars 2009 Mars was again at the 101° hotspot, as if the market was drawn to that hotspot. The market did not turn immediately, but 360° Mars further the Hang Seng index was on the low of August 2011 and Mars had travelled 720° from top.

Nearly 4 cycles of Mars from top 2007, the Index made a high again on May 26th 2015 and shortly the trend turned and the market made a low when Mars hit the hotspot of 101° again on July 8th 2015.

Since 2015 until today the Hang Seng Index seems to mirror the earlier market behavior from 2007 towards 2015. If the Hang Seng continues to do so we might expect to have a high again around March/April 2023. Then this will be on the 8th revolutions of Mars(8x360°) since the high in 2007 and about 1 month before April 16th 2023 when Mars will be again at the 101° hotspot.

Conclusion

The possible foldback of the Hang Seng Index since 2015 is interesting to watch. As shown on the chart his index might find a bottom soon from now. This can be as early as early February 2022 or late in April 2022 (or not at all)

As always there is no guarantee that the cycle will turn in this timeframe and that the fold back will continue to be in play. Cycles can contract, extend and invert. There is also no guarantee that this index will rocket to the all-time high again of 2007. At some point the fold back will cease to work any further.

So, be careful and watch the chart in front of you.

P.S.: On all of our communications, posts and analysis our Terms of Use and Disclaimer apply. Disclosure: No positions at the time of writing.

Will the stock market turn Bullish or Bearish? Looks like decision time. I am curious for your opinion. Send me your votes. You can vote on twitter here.

PS: I am currently working on the Stock Market Outlook 2022 that will be published at the end of December 2021 or first week of January 2022.

Disclosure: Holding positions at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

Stock Market Outlook 2022

Currently Fiorente’s Stock Market Outlook for 2022 is set at $34 (USD). I am planning to offer an optional monthly or quarterly update as well for an additional small for those who have bought the yearly publication.

So, subscribe to my newsletter and send me an email in reply to this post or email if your are interested in this publication.

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Last week I wrote: “From the looks of it, it looks like the $DJIA could be trading in a wave 4 of 5 of some larger degree.” We may already have started on the fifth wave of some larger degree. What we know from Elliott wave analysis is that after a fifth wave a correction will start for some time. R.N. Elliott recognised that there are nine degree of waves. However he also recognised a nine wave sequence.

Little is published on a nine wave sequence that does exists in the Elliott Wave system of analysing the market. Robert Prechter wrote about the nine wave sequence briefly in his book “Elliott Wave Principle”.

I have hardly ever seen a Elliott Wave analysis with a nine wave sequence or a package that support this. I have only seen Dan Ferrera to make such an analysis in his forecasts for which he used the filtered wave technique from Arthur Merrill. There is some merit to it as the numbers nine and five are considered important in Gann’s theory.

In todays newsletter I will analyse the $DJIA using the filtered technique of Arthur Merrill and demonstrate probable ‘Elliott’ wave nine and five wave sequences since 2009.

The commonalities in W.D. Gann and R.N. Elliott theories

From an Elliott Wave and Gann perspective the numbers five and nine do play an important role in a change of trend at the end of a five wave or nine wave sequence.

In Gann’s square of nine the numbers five and nine are important digit’s.

In W.D. Gann’s own words, taken from his commodity course:

“The number 5 is the most important number of the digits because it is the balance or main center. There are four numbers on each side of it. Note how it is shown as the balancing or center number in the Square of Nine.”

“The SQUARE OF NINE is very important because nine digits are used in reassuring everything. We cannot go beyond nine without starting to repeat and using the 0. If we divide 360° by 9, we get 40°, which measures 40, 40 months, 40 days, 40 weeks, or 40 months, and shows why bottoms and tops often come out on these angles measured by one-ninth of the circle.”

R.N. Elliott discovered that markets usually trend in a five wave sequence after which the market reverses. He also mentioned that this could be extended to a nine wave sequence, all of equal size. In his theory there are also nine degrees of waves ranging from Grand Super Cycle towards Subminuette.

So, in both theories nine and five do play an important role. In Gann’s theory number five in the middle of a square of nine stands for balance in price and time after a correction is set in, like in Elliott’s theory. Same as with a nine wave sequence a change in trend will occur in both theories. Note: also Thomas Demark famous indicator also uses a nine wave sequence.

Hence there is some remarkable commonality about W.D. Gann’s discovery and R.N. Elliot theories on the numbers five and nine. I think the law of nature must be the cause of this.

The fifth wave and the ‘40’ month cycle in the $DJIA

In above quote on the square of nine W.D. Gann’s recognised the existence of 40 month cycle as it is 1/9 of a full circle, after which a change of trend probably occurs.

The famous banker family Rothschild’s identified this cycle in 1912 as well as Kitchin in 1923 independently from each other. Also the Foundation from the study of cycles did quite some analysis and discovered a 40.68 month cycle in stock market data going back into 1789. The ‘40’ month cycle is also know as the business cycle.

Recently I made an analysis on the $DJIA cycles and in below monthly chart I annotated the most likely ‘Elliott’ Wave patterns and displayed a 44 month cycle evolving (close to the ‘40’ month cycle) as shown in below monthly chart.

I have used Arthur Miller’s filtered wave approach to see if we can find a five and nine wave pattern in the stock market advances from March 2009 onwards. Perhaps we can not call them ‘Elliott’ Waves, as in the Elliott Wave theory the third wave is regarded as the largest.

In the first 6 years a five wave pattern into May 2015 emerged after which a relatively small three wave correction set in. In keep on counting the waves until finishing the ninth wave it is clear that a bigger correction was expected hereafter. An A-B-C-D-E, of a larger wave five corrective pattern was developing into the opposite direction from 2018 into the lows of 2020. This is compliant with Gann’s theory on the square of nine for major change in trend to occur

The lows of 2020 seem also to align with a low in probably the 40 month cycle. Since then a new cycle started which is evolving in what appears to be a five wave pattern. The analysis also suggests that in the next couple of months the $DJIA will likely find a crest. From the looks of this the ‘40’ month cycle seem to align with a Venus Mars cycle for which the planetary fan is drawn on the chart in pink as well. The fib analysis done on the filtered waves does also suggest a crest between 36000-38000.

The Venus Mars cycle

From the lows of March 2009 the Venus - Mars Geo/Helio cycles will return exactly to the same angle on the Venus Rx date in December 19th 2021 after respectively 2160°/5040°. In Helio this will be on 154° angle and this is very close to 154 months from the March low of 2009 as well. In below chart I have highlighted the Venus Mars Geo cycle aligning with probably the ‘40’ month business cycle.

Will the angle between Venus Mars Helio of 154° at the low of 2009, which was on a Venus Rx date reveal, a possible future change in trend on a Venus Rx date (December 19th 2021) when Venus Mars Helio revisits this angle again?

The Fibonacci extension analysis (123.6-161.8%) from the channel drawn from mid 2008-March 2009, in above charts suggest a probable target of 36000-38000 and even a bit beyond that range on the $DJIA is possible. Note: we have already passed the 36000.

Looking beyond 2021 I also found that on January 18th 2022 the North Node will enter into Taurus. According to Louise McWhirter’s theory the economic cycle will enter into a phase of below normal growth when this happens.

So, I would not be surprised if the $DJIA takes a little bit more time to form a crest and could even head into a January 2022 crest as well.

Conclusion

In addition to my earlier analysis and posts the wave analysis in this post (combining Gann and Elliott wave theories), the Fibonacci targets, the planetary Venus Mars cycle and the North Node entering Taurus in January 2022 all suggests we are possibly heading to a crest in the stock market anywhere between November 2021 - January 2022. Crests will take some time to form, so be careful.

As we are dealing with probabilities of cycles coming together, do not trade the projections or forecasts but wait for the actual confirmation in the chart in front of you.

Disclosure: No positions at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

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PS: I am preparing a special publication: The Fiorente2 - Yearly Stock Market Outlook 2022. Stay tuned for further notices and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post or email and what you like to be included in this 2022 Stock Market Outlook.

I have decided that the first 333 subscribers to this exclusive publication will get a 66.66% discount on the regular price. The next 333 subscribers will get a 33.33% discount, and you can guess all of the next 333 subscribers and beyond will pay the regular price ($99). Stay tuned and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post or email.

I have been closely following the Gann Master Cycle from 2008 onwards. At times the cycle has a high correlation, as in the last four years, and at times the cycle inverts for some time probably due to some other cycles and seems less accurate. This year the Gann Master Cycle high also seems to align with Venus going retrograde (Rx) on December 19th 2021. Since 2000 there have been 2 instances on Venus Rx which both caused a change in trend on the lows in 2002 and 2009.

Last year I looked into these dates and reviewed the lows of the S&P 500 at October 10th 2002 and March 6th 2009. It appeared to me that not only Venus started on a retrograde(Rx) movement and causing a change in trend (CIT) but also time(longitude) and price of certain planets were aligned on these dates. We know from W.D. Gann that a change in trend will occur when price is squared by time, or when price and time come together.

Will this happen again on Venus Rx this year? Let’s review what happened so far and what could lay ahead of us in the near future based on past cycle behaviour.

The October 2002 low

On October 10th 2002 the S&P500 closed on 803.92. Venus is going Rx. Saturn Helio on the same day was on 83.3° longitude and when converting degrees to price this equals 803.3 (83.3+360+360). A change of trend occurred not only because of Venus Rx but also time(longitude) and price aligned on this date.

As Gann mentioned in his commodity course (1954):

“This is one of the most important and valuable discoveries I have ever made, and if you stick strictly to the rule and always watch an option when Price is Squared by Time or when Time and Price come together, you will be able to forecast the important changes in trend with greater accuracy.” … and he also mentioned: “..we use the circle of 360 degrees to measure time and price”.

The March 2009 low

The low on the S&P 500 on March 6th 2009 hit 666.79. Next to Venus Rx, Mars Helio on this day was on 306.93°, Jupiter Helio on 307.90° , corresponding respectively to price levels of 667 and 668. The close on the same day was on 683.38 which aligned with Mars on 322.85° and the corresponding price level of 683 (322.85+360). Again time and price aligned.

Timing the expected December 2021 high

Will Venus Rx on December 19th cause a change in trend again and what level could be reached by that time converting longitude (time) to price?

Venus and Mars were both active on the 2002 and 2009 lows. From 2002 low the Venus Mars Helio cycle turns exactly to the same spot in the zodiac after 21 cycles (21x360°=7660°) on December 13th 2021. From 2009 low to December 19th 2021 is exactly 14 cycles (or 5040°) of Venus Mars Helio cycle.

The Venus Mars Geo cycle is also interesting. This cycles returns to the same degree measured from October 2009 low (6x360°=2160°) on December 19th , and on December 23rd 2021 measured from March 2002 low (9x360°=3240°).

So, if history repeats I am expecting a high and a probable change in trend somewhere between December 13th and December 23rd 2021. The mid point point is December 18/19th at Venus Rx.

Squaring time with price

As the difference between 2002 and 2009 price levels is 223° in price I am looking for a price that equals this degree. A price level a 4903 is on the 223°angle. In below chart you also see that planetary positions correspond closely to this price level. Mars Helio at 226.37° corresponds to 4906. and Mars Geo at 239.71° corresponds to a price level of 4920. Also the sun is at 261.18° which is a Fibonacci number.

W.D. Gann also taught us that the 225° angle, which corresponds to a price level of 4905 is important to watch for a change in trend. Note that Mars Helio on this date is on the 225° (4905) as well.

A few days earlier on December 11th Venus and Pluto will go conjunct, start on a new cycle as well. Venus and Pluto share the principles of money and values and Pluto is also associated with threats and danger. This could lead to the realisation about the safety and security of the stock market and that traders realise the stock market has gone to high.

An alternative price level could be 5040. As from 2009 low the Venus Mars Helio cycle travelled 5040°, converted to price 5040 ( 1°/$) this corresponds closely to the price level of Neptune both in Geo (5030) and Helio (5032). An open or high on 5040 and low/close on 5030/5032 could well be possible.

Note: we could also find price resistance on the next higher cycle (e.g. up to 5400 (15x360°) if the stock markets gets really extended as indicated in above chart.

Gann Master Cycle projection

The Gann Master Cycle high for the S&P500 is expected at December 12/13th 2021 in time. In below chart I plotted the Gann Master Cycle (teal) and the expected corresponding price levels (4920/5040) based on some of the planetary positions from above analysis. In the cycle pane you can see the Venus H (red) /Mars H (green) cycles, next to the approximate 9 year Juglar cycle (blue) coming into the same time zone.

A Fibonacci resistance derived from previous highs and lows is plotted at around 4926. This all seems to underpin a possible high around mid December 2021.

Conclusion

The analysis of squaring time and price based on past cycle actions and future projections of the cycles mentioned in this analysis could give us a hint for a possible high and change in trend around mid December 2021 for the stock market.

Whether or not the projected price levels will be reached is to be seen. As always we do not trade the forecast but the chart in front of us. It could take some time, even into early 2022, before the cycles turn down.

Disclosure: No positions in this index at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

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PS: I am preparing a special publication: The Fiorente2 - Yearly Stock Market Outlook 2022. Stay tuned for further notices and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post and what you like to be included in this 2022 Stock Market Outlook.

I have decided that the first 333 subscribers to this exclusive publication will get a 66.66% discount on the regular price. The next 333 subscribers will get a 33.33% discount, and you can guess all of the next 333 subscribers and beyond will pay the regular price ($99). Stay tuned and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post.

Often major indices around the world trade in similar directions and often synchronize on a trough. Sometimes some indices are ahead of the ‘game’ and have an early change in trend compared to other world indices. A reason for me to follow the leading indices around the world.

Australia is a country rich of natural resources such as iron ore, natural gas, gold, silver, nickel, minerals such as cobalt etc. All needed to support our increasing energy demands and support the development of new technologies.

So, I started to follow the leading index of Australia the S&P/ASX200 and many other indices from around the world sometime ago. If we are going into a recession most likely this will effect many indices around the world and certainly the Australian ASX200 index. Today I will revisit the ASX200.

S&P/ASX200 revisited

Back in April 2021 I posted an analysis on the S&P/ASX200, the Australian leading Stock Market Index on my Twitter account. You can read it here.

I have updated the data on the monthly chart you find below, but not the analysis as annotated on the chart in April.

In my tweet from April I noted that the price and time from 2007 high to 2020 low and from the 2009 low to the recent high in August 2021 was expected to be in reverse in price and time.

Indeed, so far it seems the case that the index since February 2015 has been mirroring past market behaviour in a similar (reverse) fashion. I do not know if the mirroring will keep repeating, but certainly it is a possible sign for an important inflection point or change in trend.

Is the ASX200 a canary in the coal mine?

Since the low of 2020 the ASX200 followed most indices around the world until to recent top in August 2021. Lately the index has not made higher highs anymore compared to other indices.

This which makes me think is the ASX200 a canary in the coal mine? Is this the first signal we are close to a top in many other stock markets around the world? We will have to watch the chart in front of us. A top could take several months to form.

Conclusion

With the commodities cycles probably to boom in the next decades Australia’s economy may be well positioned for years for Australia to prosper as a country.

When major economies like China and many others countries around the world in need for commodities to sustain their further economic growth will rollover into a recession the Australian economy and companies thriving on these commodities will certainly be affected (first).

For me a reason to keep a close watch on the ASX200 and see if we have made a change in trend already for other indices to follow after sometime.

Disclosure: No positions in this index at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

As discussed in my earlier updates on the Gann Master Cycle I expected the $DJIA would move to higher levels towards the end of 2021. The $DJIA has reached its highest close @ 35819.56 on October 29th 2021.

From a planetary, time and price perspective I expect we are not far off from a change in trend (CIT) on the $DJIA.

I will discuss in this update the significance of the levels we are currently trading, based on a few different charts explaining the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle to the current trend, the upcoming planetary resistance levels, how the top of 1929 is very close to a possible square out in price and time in 2021/early 2022 on a square root scale. In conclusion I will discuss the current position at the top of a trend channel drawn from 2000 and 2009 levels.

The significance of the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle

Back in 1921 Prof Weston researched the cycles in the New York Stock Market and he found out that the Jupiter-Saturn cycle was a very reliable cycle with an approximate cycle length of 20 years. From conjunction (0°) Jupiter-Saturn moves in about 10 years to 180° forming the 10 year cycle, and backwards again in about 10 years to conjunction making the total move to about 20 years. The Jupiter-Saturn cycle at 3x its length (3x360=1080 degrees) is in my opinion the Gann Master Cycle.

According to his analysis the cycle reaches is maximum height at Jupiter 18° Saturn in the first year from conjunction. Since its conjunction on December 21st 2020, there are however three passages from Jupiter and Saturn @18° on May 30th, August 25th and December 24th 2021. This may explain why we are still continuing on the current trend towards the last passage.

The below chart roughly indicates the ever repeating pattern during its 10 year interval from 0° to 180°. This has not changed much since this chart was made.

Planetary Resistance lines

I expect the last passage Jupiter 18° Saturn on Dec 24th 2021 to be very relevant for a CIT as it is close to many other cycles discussed in previous updates.

In below monthly chart of the @DJIA I have plotted the passages of the Jup Sat 18° separation at 360° intervals. In 2001 the $DJIA plunged after this passage into the low of 2002. Likewise a CIT occurred around the last passages in 1982,1962, 1942.

The current level of the $DJIA is very close to the Jupiter Saturn helio planetary lines plotted on this chart and many times in the past these planetary lines have provided for relevant support and resistance.

I expect a price level of 36000 on the $DJIA to form quite some resistance as this level is also an harmonic of 360°. As you can see in the past these resistance levels can form quite some resistance for a while, and in some instances were only passed for a short period after which a CIT occurred and a quick drop in price occurred.

Also note the MACD indicator on this chart is making lower lows for some time, indicating we are close to a probable top.

$DJIA on a square root scale

The $DJIA on a square root scale is also indicating we are close to a probable top. A square root chart is probably the best way to plot a long term chart as opposed to arithmetic or logarithmic charts which tends to exaggerates price movements at its respective high prices or low prices. H.M. Gartley (of the famous "Gartley pattern" ), stated in his 1935 book, "Profits in the Stock Market", that, in contrast to arithmetic and logarithmic scales, "The square root scale, measuring changes in increments of square root, tends to allot equal graphic distance to price movements at all levels."

As you can see in above above chart the $DJIA is closing in to a level where the highs in 1929 and a probable high in the next few months are connected from a geometry point of view. A square root of 192 (=36864) or even 196 (=38416) is not impossible to be reached in the coming weeks if this trend keeps extending its course. 192 is on the 24 wheel and 196 is a natural square as well, all levels that can indicate a CIT.

Conclusion: $DJIA is probably at/near top of its trend channel

The $DJIA is also trading at the top of its trend channel, drawn form 2000 top and 2009 low on a 45° angle. Note the mid channel line is going through 2002 low as well. Usually these trendlines are relevant support and resistance levels and where a square out in price and time (CIT) can occur.

I do not expect we will be trading long above this channel, but anomalies can occur, cycles can invert, extend and contract as well. Read my earlier posts on this substack and Fiorente2 Twitter account in the last year as well. So, take care and trade the chart in front of you. Have a good weekend to you all.

Disclosure: No positions in this index at the time of writing. Read our full disclaimer.

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PS: I am preparing a special publication: The Fiorente2 - Yearly Stock Market Outlook 2022. Stay tuned for further notices and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post and what you like to be included in this 2022 Stock Market Outlook.

I have decided that the first 333 subscribers to this exclusive publication will get a 66.66% discount on the regular price. The next 333 subscribers will get a 33.33% discount, and you can guess all of the next 333 subscribers and beyond will pay the regular price (probably $99). Stay tuned and let me know if you are interested.

The dynamic forecast on the $DJIA moved 300 points higher from its expected high in November and December 2021 since last update.

The forecasted high in mid November 2021 with a possible second top around mid December 2021 seems to be aligned with the Mars-Uranus cycle (702 days cycle) which is know as the crash cycle. Arch Crawford, who recently retired, has published a nice thesis around this cycle and Raymond Merriman did extensive research on this cycle as well.

Mars opposition Uranus

According to Raymond Merriman in his book on Stock Market Timing the Mars opposition Uranus planetary signature has a potential to correlate with very large reversals. According to him “the probability of a primary cycle unfolding within an orb of 10 trading days is 73%”.1 The probabilities of this cycle to from a top is thus quite high.

This cycle culminates on November 17th 2021, but in the past this cycle did not always turn on the spot like in 1929 or in 1962 as documented also here in the link to Arch Crawford thesis.

In early January 2018 Arch Crawford published on his website:

“ON DECEMBER 2nd, Mars opposed the planet Uranus, beginning the 40% of that synodic cycle which has contained EVERY stock market crash of the past 100 years! As it is a short cycle of about two years, it is clear that a crashing market does not occur in any but a small portion of such cycles. However, with the current Bull Market move becoming very extended, and with various economic and technical information weakening the "Big Picture," our opinion is firm that the year ahead presents more than casual dangers to lives and fortunes!”

After December 2nd 2017, Mars opposing Uranus, the stock market continued its course and did set a top in late January 2018, after it crashed quite quickly. Perhaps this can happen again as the currently the Bull Market seems very extended as well and many cycles are probably topping out in the last two months of 2021 as annotated in below chart on the $DJIA.

A confluence in price and time

The Stock Market usually turns when there is a confluence in price and time. Geometry and the 161.8% Fibonacci price level extension on the $DJIA suggests some resistance around November 17th 2021. The Saturn 1° = $1000 line drawn from the low March 2022 will also hit this confluence in time and price on November 17th 2021. In time this is 1080 days from December 2nd 2018 and right on the 45° (Gann 1x1) line drawn from the March 2020 low.

A few days later on November 19th there is a partial lunar eclipse. Particular events to crashes in 1963 and 1987 also have an anniversary this mid November as well. I do not know if these are regular cycles but on November 13th it is exactly 717 moons (58 years) from 22 November 1963, the day J.F. Kennedy was murdered and the market crashed. A spiral calendar anniversary.2 November 15th is 18 million minutes away from stock market high in August 25th 1987 (a reference to a multiple 180 degrees?).

Conclusion

The Gann Master cycle suggests we are in a probable topping phase here. The market has shown to be able in the past to continue for some time after the Mars Uranus opposition (like in December 2017) and some major cycles due in December 2021 could be a reason for it.

Currently the Mars Uranus cycle is much earlier compared to the previous Gann Master cycle which ignited the crash after the Mars Uranus opposition. Perhaps the Gann Master Cycle could turn this time earlier as well. The confluence in price and time does suggest that mid November 2021 target for a possible top is a big contender.

As always cycles can contract, invert or extend and anomalies can occur, so be careful and trade the chart in front of you.

So, I am keeping a vigilant watch on all of the expected cycle culminations during November and December 2021 and how the stock market behaves under these cycles. The market is always right.

Disclosure: no positions in the index mentioned in this post

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PS: I am preparing a special publication: The Fiorente2 - Yearly Stock Market Outlook 2022. Stay tuned for further notices and let me know if you are interested in reply to this post and what you like to be included in this 2022 Stock Market Outlook.

I have decided that the first 333 subscribers to this exclusive publication will get a 66.66% discount on the regular price. The next 333 subscribers will get a 33.33% discount, and you can guess all of the next 333 subscribers and beyond will pay the regular price (t.b.d.). Stay tuned and let me know if you are interested.

Not sure yet if the high has already set in or that we will have a rebound mid October when both Mercury and Jupiter go direct.

Jupiter will bring some optimism perhaps re-opening of society going into summer Down under with less (pandemic) restrictions. If this will happen I would not be surprised if we will go into a (second) top anywhere between 7900 and 8100 around Venus Rx (Dec 19th 2021). This will be also 666 weeks from Low 2009 and 90 weeks from low 2020.

The index is currently finding support at @ 150% Fib extension level drawn from channel (bottom) March 2009 - March 2020 / (top)April 2010 - Oct 2020

Longer term thoughts

Considering the 90 year cycle, the great cycle as Gann mentioned in his publications, and the geometry in above chart I would not be surprised if we hit a low in July to September 2022. This will likely start slowly downwards and on its way may increase in speed into a probable V-bottom shape around early July 2022 and a perhaps a second bottom in late September 2022.

Disclaimer Disclosure: No positions at the time of writing

The lows in 2002 and 2009 were both smack on Venus Rx with 333 weeks between both bottoms. The question I asked myself was will the Stock market again turn on the next Venus Rx? If Venus goes Rx on December 19th 2021 (Sunday) that will be 666 weeks from low 2009 and 999 weeks from low 2002. The numbers 3(33), 6(66) and 9(99) on the enneagram form thus a perfect triangle on a circle, suggesting a cycle has completed.

There are several other harmonics in price and aspects of the number 6.66 at the same time that seem to suggest this thesis might be worth considering.

S&P 500 probable target in price and time

In July I wrote in my tweet that I was expecting probable high anywhere between 4365 - 4635 with a 3% orb @ the confluence of the 1.618 pitchfork extension line late December 2021. On September 2nd we have reached a high of 4545.85 which was right in the middle of that orb already, but still a few month short of my time target in December 2021 around Venus Rx. It seems like the high could have set in already.

Looking around the date of Venus Rx (Dec 19th 2021) I see that are several other cycles of interest that still can hint at a (second) top in December, such as on:

• Dec 14th 2021 Venus is @ 66.68° H(elio) (1/10 of 666.79 low 2009).

• Dec 18th 2021 Sun H Venus H returns at the exact same degree @ 13.1606° and 2880° (8*360°) away from the low of 2009. Note: Sun H Venus H was at 13° separation on the low of October 2002 as well.

• Dec 21st 2021 Sun Mars returns to the same 141.3839° H as on the low of March 2009. Note: Sun H Mars H aligns every 2160°(6 times 360°) with Sun Venus at the exact same degree.

• Dec 24th 2021 Saturn 090° Uranus. It’s third and last passage since February 2021.

• Dec 24th 2021 Jupiter 18° Saturn. This is also the third passage of this aspect in 2021. According to professor Weston’s theory (1921) on the 20 year cycle the stock market goes to maximum height in the first year of the new decade when the distance is about 18° between the Jupiter and Saturn1.

Fibonacci perspective on a 2021 high

From a yearly perspective a high in 2021 would form also an ideal Fibonacci relationship between the years 1932, 1966 and 2021

Any high in December 2021 is 89 years from the low in 1932, 55 years from 1966 and 1966 is 34 years from 1932 making a perfect (89/55/34) Fibonacci symmetrical triangle. Same with connecting the years 1932, 1987 and 2021 which are subsequent 89/55/34 Fibonacci years apart.

Conclusion

As I did not even mention the Gann Master Cycle unfolding at the same time, the third passages of both Saturn square Uranus and Jupiter 18° Saturn, these cycles have all fed into my believe we could still have a (second) top somewhere around December 2021.

I can be wrong. The financial markets are complex. Cycles can contract or extend. Anomalies can also occur such as war, budget deficits, covid pandemic continuing. So take care. Trade the chart in front of you as the market develops.

Read my disclaimer. Disclosure: no positions in this index at the time of writing.