It’s July 4, 2026, and the United States turns 250. To my American readers, happy Independence Day. A quarter-millennium is a long anniversary, and long anniversaries are the markers I watch, so it’s a fitting day to see where the short and long cycles stand.

In my “2026 Mid-Year Forecast” (#308, June 14) I set a composite path for the second half: a July high, an early-August pullback, a September high near 52,000, and an autumn low. In “The First Checkpoint” (#309, June 20) the Dow had already run to the 52,000 area two and a half months early, so I set 52,500 as the line that would tilt the read to the stronger 1898 year.

On July 2 the Dow closed at 52,900, up 9.34% year-to-date from the January 2 close of 48,382. That’s above 52,500. This is the update I promised the moment the line cleared.

The S&P 500 still hasn’t confirmed. It closed at 7,483 on July 2, below its June 2 high of 7,620. So the Dow keeps making new highs while the S&P holds under its top, and that split is worth carrying through the analysis. It keeps the early-August pullback on the table even as the Dow leads.

Where the analogs stand now

The three years that led the set in “Mid-Year Forecast” ( #308, June 14) still lead it. Re-measured through July 2, 1898 the correlation sits at r 0.81, 1890 at r 0.69, and 1978 at r 0.65, with the top-3 composite at r 0.81. (Here r is the correlation, how closely each old year’s pattern tracks 2026: 1.0 is a perfect match, 0 is none.) 1898 firmed since late June while the others held their rank, so the fit only improved into July.

One flag before anyone runs with it. I don’t expect the Dow to reach the 58,000 area the 1898 price overlay would imply. 1898 has the strongest correlation, not a price I’m forecasting.

The 52,500 break matters because of what I said it would mean. When price runs this far ahead of the slower composite path, my bias moves to the stronger year in the set, and that’s 1898.

The dip looks like a minor wave

Economic trends mostly turn on the slow combinations of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. The shorter swings come from the faster bodies, the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars, in aspect to those larger planets: smaller cycles inside the larger cycle of the secular trend. A ship on the ocean takes time to turn because of its speed and mass, and the same can be said for the cycles that involve the larger planets.

That’s why I read any dip between now and September as a minor wave, not a trend change. In #309 the Gann cycle-cluster count came in light for July and August and heaviest in September, so the weight in the larger cycles sits later in the year.

The one near-term layer I’d downgrade is the Jupiter-Pluto opposition (geocentric, July 12 to 28, the two planets 180 degrees apart). Pluto is retrograde now, so its pull may be lighter, and I lean on the heliocentric read instead. The opposition has inverted in 5 of the last 7 cycles, and a turn landed inside its two-week window only about 28% of the time (its walk-forward rate in an out-of-sample test).

Weak on its own as a turn signal. It earns its place because in the last 7 cycles the DJIA slid into a dip around the opposition, and the matching high on this record isn’t due before September 2027, more than a year past the July 2026 opposition from a heliocentric perspective.

A tidal-force cluster into late August

My recent research was drawn to the work of the Italian professor Nicola Scafetta and his colleague Antonio Bianchini, who studied how the planets’ tidal pull on the Sun may pace solar activity.1

Their case is that the tides of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn help explain the 9-to-11-year sunspot cycle. One thing to be clear about: their research is about the Sun and the climate, not the stock market. The financial market step is easy to make. The sunspot cycle has been tied to the economic cycle and its recessions since Jevons wrote about it in the 1870s2, but it is not the only cycle, so I treat that link as a probability, not a rule.

I recreated their tidal model as an index and added Mercury, which is closest to the Sun and drives the shorter swings.

On the chart below Mercury is also the planet doing the aligning in this window: it makes four aspects to Venus, Jupiter and Saturn inside five days in late August. The index built (not shown on the chart) from those angles clusters into late August, close to early September.

The pull may be weak on its own, as Scafetta stresses. It runs stronger on the hard aspects, the conjunction (zero degrees), square (90 degrees) and the opposition (180 degrees), and when several of these fall together the chance of an inflection goes up.

The next square of Mercury and Saturn and the Venus sextile to Mercury (60 degrees) may be the short-term wobble the composite shows in early August. I’m not so sure the dip will run as deep as the composite analog chart 2 shows into early August.

The next confluences

It’s entirely possible the trend follows the Venus 8x1 timing line (a price-and-time line at an 8-to-1 ratio) right into the end of August. By August 21 the market is around 180 calendar days from the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction of February 25, after which the Dow corrected sharply into the March 30 low.

The Mercury-Jupiter conjunction on August 22 sits inside a heliocentric cluster: Mercury-Venus opposition on August 18, Saturn square Mercury on August 17, and Saturn trine Mercury (120 degrees) on August 22. These dates carry the heaviest tidal pull in the window, which is why I’d watch August 21, a Friday, for a crest.

The crest may sit at the 100% Fibonacci extension of the move from the March 30 low at 45,057 to the February high at 50,512: that projects to 55,968, with interim levels at 53,241 (50%) and 53,884 (61.8%). That target sits above the current 52,900 and below the 1898 analog’s 58,000, which I don’t expect.

Here’s the change from my earlier post #308. I no longer carry the October low near 46,200. Chart 3 shows the rising Saturn 8x1 line as moving support, the line that held the March 30, 2026 low and runs from the April 7, 2025 low it originates from. That support climbs into the 50,000 to 51,000 zone by October and November. So if an autumn pullback comes, I’d look for it to find that moving support near 50,000 to 51,000, not the 46,200 I named in June.

The Saturn 8x1 lower timing line gives me the line that would prove this analysis wrong. A daily close that holds above 52,500 through August keeps the 1898 case alive. A daily close below the rising Saturn 8x1 moving support, near 50,000 to 51,000 into the autumn, would break it, and I will update the analysis the moment it happens.

Each level is a place where the move may slow, pause, or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Conclusion

The 52,500 break on July 2 is the change since #309. It brings my analysis to the stronger 1898 analog year and points to any July-to-August dip being a minor wave inside the larger cycles rather than the start of an autumn decline. The tidal-force index, the Venus 8x1 line, and the August 17-to-22 heliocentric cluster all point to a possible crest into late August, near the 55,968 extension, with August 21 the tightest date.

The old October low near 46,200 comes off the calendar. The Saturn 8x1 moving support has held since the April 2025 low, and it now sits far higher, in the 50,000 to 51,000 zone by autumn. The S&P is the caution: until it clears its June 2 high near 7,620, the early-August pullback stays in play.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next update when the August window opens, or sooner if the Dow closes back below 52,500 or the tidal-force cluster turns the market ahead of schedule. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my “2026 Mid-Year Forecast” (#308, June 14), I laid out a path for the second half of 2026. It came from three older years that look like this one: 1890, 1898, and 1978. I will call them the analog set, the past years whose pattern is closest to now.

That path pointed to a July high, a small pullback in early August, a high near 52,000 around September 1, and a low near 46,200 in October.

Five days later, the Dow has already traded near 52,000. The market is running ahead of the forecast, which is worth a closer look.

DJIA - Where the first half left us

The first half gave us two clear turns. The Dow made its high near 50,500 on February 10, within a day of the 60-year high back in February 1966. It then fell to a low of 45,057 on March 30, down about 10.6%. My earlier cycle analysis flagged both turns in time, so the cycle did its job.

After that, the market did not follow the 1966 analog lower. The Dow kept rising, so the 60-year cycle looks to have inverted. It made a new closing high of 51,999 on June 16 and reached 52,281 on June 17 before turning back and closing near the day’s low. By June 18, it sat at 51,565.

Two price levels are important to watch. A daily close above 52,500 would tell me the pullback is not coming, and that the market is tracking the stronger 1898 year. A daily close below 46,200 before September would tell me the autumn decline came early. Neither has happened yet.

The path I’m tracking

In last week’s post (#308), I set the plan and the exit levels in the same place so you can compare them to price. Here it is again:

• A July 6 high

• A small pullback into an August 7 low

• A run back up to a September 1 high near 52,000

• A decline into an October 13 low near 46,200

• A recovery into the year-end

These are probability windows, not exact dates. June is not finished, so the June high can still move.

The dashed line shows the path, with each turn from last week’s (#308) post marked. I have marked only the hard levels I named, near 52,000 at the September high and near 46,200 at the October low. The July and August turns mark only timing, so I’ve left them without a price forecast.

The early arrival is the change. My forecast put the 52,000 area in September. The Dow reached its high in mid-June, about two and a half months early. When price runs that far ahead of the slower, weaker path, my bias is toward the stronger year in the analog top-3 years: 1898. The 52,500 line is the test. Until the Dow closes above it, I will keep the pullback on the table.

One index falling short

The Dow keeps making new highs, but the S&P 500 does not. The S&P set its 2026 high on June 2, near 7,620. Since then, it has not gone past that level, even as the Dow pushed to fresh highs into June 17.

The chart below shows each index as a percentage below its own top. The Dow comes back to zero again and again, the last time on June 16. The S&P last touched zero on June 2 and has stayed under it.

In the next chart, I plotted both indices on a single chart, in actual points. The black lines connect each index’s early-June top to its recent top. The Dow’s run-up is a higher high. The S&P runs down, a lower high. A higher high on one index and a lower high on the other, over the same weeks, is the divergence. I’ve used two axes because the Dow trades near 51,000 and the S&P near 7,500, so the scales differ.

When one major index makes a new high while the other does not, that is a warning sign. It keeps the early-August pullback alive. So I am adding a third line to watch: if the S&P clears 7,620, that would confirm the Dow’s strength. If it keeps failing there while the Dow stalls, the pullback may be starting.

When the cycles cluster

Last week I also ran a separate test. This one counts Gann’s fixed-time cycles forward from past turns and asks which months in 2026 get the most hits. It uses no correlation at all, so it is a fully independent check on the analog set.

Two months stand out: April and September. September is the heaviest month of the year, with 10 hits. Of the long cycles that land there, eight are lows, led by the 60-year 1966 line, and the month sits on Gann’s autumn date around September 22 to 23. So this method, from a different direction, points to the same place as the analog set: an autumn low.

One caveat on this chart I need to share with you. In my earlier tests, a month with a heavy cluster sat near a real turn roughly as often as any month does. So I read April and September as windows to watch, not as fixed dates. A cluster is one signal. I want at least two more lined up before I trust it.

The split under September

The cluster tells me when a turn may come. It does not tell me whether it is up or down. For direction, I have chosen the years ending in 6 and plotted three different lines.

The three lines split, and that split is the real story. The broad set of year-6 years, the decennial pattern (1966, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016), runs up into the close, near +13% by December, and has finished higher 5 of the last 6 times.

The Gann 20/60 set (1946, 1966, 1986, 2006), weighted to the cycles Gann trusted most, is the only one that turns down in September. And the 1966 line on its own falls all year, from a February 1.5% high to about -20% by September/October.

So, September/October reads two ways. Under Gann's own weighting, it is a high, then a turn lower. Under the decennial pattern, it is just cycle weight with no clear direction until September/October, then a higher high into the end of the year. That split is real, and for now, I hold it as a bias and wait.

The next windows

A planetary timing layer sits just ahead of those, in late July. The Jupiter-Pluto opposition (the two planets 180° apart ) from July 12 through July 281. It’s a hard aspect, the kind where reversals can occur. It’s also an irregular cycle. In the recent record it has run inverted, so where it once marked lows it now points to a high.

In 6 of the last 12 oppositions a turn came inside a two-week window. That’s an even split, no edge on its own, so it earns its place only because it sits right next to the composite’s late-July high and the early-August low that follows. A daily close above 52,500 through that window would tilt the read back to the stronger 1898 path.

The first low window is early August. Gann’s seasonal date of August 8 sits right next to the analog set’s August 7 low. Two methods, one window. My cycle run is light in August, so the weight there comes from the season and the analog set; the fixed cycles add little.

The bigger window runs from late September into October. The analog set, the seasonal date, my cycle cluster, and the 60-year turn all point there. When two independent methods land on the same autumn low, that is the part of the forecast I would give the most weight.

I will also close an old call. In an earlier post, “Wheels Within Wheels” (#303), I named a possible July low near 42,149. The market instead cleared its February high, so that low is off the table. The inversion won.

Each level is a place where the move may slow, pause, or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Conclusion

The forecast from my 2026 Mid-Year Forecast (#308) still stands, but the balance has shifted. The Dow reached its September target in mid-June, which leans toward the stronger 1898 year, while the 52,500 line has held it short of a full confirmation. The S&P has not made a new high since June 2, which keeps the early-August pullback in play. And two separate methods agree on an autumn low in late September or early October.

So my preference for now is the analog path into the August window, with 1898 as the stronger case that the Dow is flirting with, and the S&P as the index that has to confirm. The August window should settle which way it goes.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I will post the next update when the August window opens, or sooner if the Dow closes above 52,500 or the S&P clears 7,620. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my post #306, I listed two dates for the back half of 2026: August 8 and September 23, the two that carry the most weight in Gann’s seasonal record. I said then that whether either becomes a real turning point depends on what the cycle hierarchy and the analogs indicate once I run them. This is an update on the two independent studies: the top-3 analog correlations and the Gann annual cycle method.

As you remember, a reader pushed back in May against my continued use of the 60-year cycle analogy. His read was that the 60-year cycle has been off track since 2022, and that changing the read along the way makes tracking it meaningless. I didn’t dismiss it. The 60-year cycle isn’t always the dominant one, and I’ve said so before. But it’s one cycle within a hierarchy, and the mid-year mark is the place to show that rather than argue it.

The lesson here for all of us: don’t hold on to a bias or a previous analysis when the odds turn against you.

Here’s where the first half left us, to the day. The DJIA made a high of 50,188 on February 10, a low of 45,166 on March 27, and a new high of 51,562 on June 4. That last print ran past the 1966 forecast (inversion?) on which the second-half bias rested. I will start there, because it’s the true starting point.

Where the first half landed

Two turns were realized in the first half, and the Gann method had something to say about both. February held as a high, with the nearby cycle anchors reading high. Six of the eight Gann time cycles were projected from a past high but came in as lows by the end of March 2026: the 60-year cycle inverted across these turns. So the timing flagged both inflection points. You can’t draw a conclusion from two turns, and I’ll classify it as exactly that: thin.

Note: the tests show that inversions occur, as past highs and lows may change polarity over time.

The June 4 high is the one that matters for the second half of 2026. At 51,562, the index traded above the level the 1966 analog sat at, with that forecast pointing to an early-year high and an autumn low. The way I read this is that the 1966 price overlay is off the table for now.

The top-3 analogs, re-ranked

I built a tool that ranks past years by how closely each matches the current year’s pattern, weighted by correlation through June 12. It re-ranked the analogs using a January 2 to June 12 window (112 trading days).

The set now leads with three years: 1898 at r 0.78, 1890 at r 0.67, and 1978 at r 0.63.

That’s a real change from spring. The April data was led by 1966, but 1966 has since slipped to rank 23, and 1926 dropped out of the top group. Only 1898 carried over from the April top three. The set shifted toward three older years.

Three analogs at r 0.6 and up are a reading worth weighing. It’s a small sample, and the index might not follow any of them. Cycles contract, extend, and invert.

The obvious objection is that an empirical correlation search and Gann’s fixed cycles are two different tools that may not agree.

So the correlation tool and Gann’s cycle projection nominate the same years from opposite ends: one by price fit, the other by time-cycle count.

1898 is the exception. It’s the strongest fit at r 0.78 and the loosest harmonic, the year the fixed cycles would never have nominated on their own, yet it still resonates on a similar theme.

When three years line up this closely, it’s worth looking into what happened in them.

These analog years agree on similar political and economic themes, each near a major tariff episode: the McKinley Tariff in 18902, the Dingley Tariff in 18973 into 1898 (which raised rates to protect manufacturers and factory workers from foreign competition), and the 1978 dollar crisis, inflation, and Japan trade friction through 19784.

All three years also printed an autumn low. The 1890 and 1978 cases continued lower into year-end lows, while 1898 made an October low and rallied to a new high by December.

The correlation doesn’t prove a tariff link, but it’s a condition that aligns.

What the Gann annual cycle method revealed.

Before I make any call on a cycle window for the second half of 2026, I owe you the test I ran this month. The method projects all of Gann’s 33 cycles, from 90 years down to the minor 1-year cycle, forward, and watches for dates where many of them land at once: a cluster. The question I put to myself is whether a cluster marks a turn more often than chance.

I detrended the data and backtested it in 7 runs, using a relative price oscillator (RPO, which strips the trend) and the price level itself (the price detector), across 2022 and 2026, from monthly to weekly to daily, on the DJIA back to 1885, to test whether the timeframe makes a difference. A lift of 1.0 means the cluster did no better than the base rate; above 1.0 is an edge.

• On the monthly timeframe, the DJIA sits within one month of a detrended turn about 23% of the time to begin with. The dense-cluster months lifted that to a 1.41 hit rate, and the edge held after a backtest split the range at 1960.

• On the weekly timeframe, that edge washed out. In the flagged weeks, 9 of 222 sat on a turn: a 4.1% hit rate against a 4.1% base rate. A lift of 1.00, which is to say no edge at all.

• On the daily timeframe, it scatters. The lift sits near 1.1 at every window and doesn’t sharpen as the window tightens. After 1960, it fell to about 1.05.

The tests show that a monthly chart is enough to mark a zone to watch where a high or low may land. More data points on a weekly or daily chart didn’t add an edge or sharpen the timing of cycle crests or troughs.

Testing the method on 2022, it caught the January 2022 high, the September and October lows, and the November 30 high. So far in 2026, the 1966 high echoed in February 2026, and we now know the March low inverted on a March/April cluster.

I summarized the 2022 and 2026 results in the table below:

The table also shows which method, RPO or price detector, matched the actual high or low printed.

He put the fallibility into the trading as much as the timing: “When making a trade, remember that you can be wrong or that the market may change its trend and the STOP LOSS order will protect you” (same source).

Note: the annual forecast was only one part of his method. In his day, he judged the public wasn’t ready for the astronomical cycles, so he called them time cycles and left a clue through the 30-year cycle, the Saturn cycle, which he named just once. My best guess is that he read the planetary cycles alongside the time cycles to judge how a year’s forecast would play out and which analogs would confirm it. Something for my further research.

A probable path into the year-end

Putting all of the recent research into perspective, here’s how the second half of 2026 may work out.

In post #306, I flagged August 8 and September 23 on the seasonal layer alone. With the hierarchy and the top-3 analogs run, here’s what supports each.

August 8 has picked up top-3 analog support. The top-3 composite recorded a low on August 7, one day off the seasonal date. So a date I flagged in May on seasonal weight alone now has the analog set behind it: a seasonal trigger and a composite-analog low in the same window. It’s never proof it will play out this way; it remains a probable forecast.

September 23 reads as a bracket rather than a hit. The composite shows a high on September 1 and a low on October 13, which places September 23 in the declining phase between them. The analog set points to continued weakness into that date, without pinpointing the exact day. Support holds through the period, with the turn marked on the chart.

October is where the cycles stack up, and it’s the strongest read in the forecast. The composite’s October 13 low falls within the cluster method’s heaviest second-half low window for 2026, with 5 of 6 clustered-cycle hits (the RPO) and 12 of 15 from the price detector.

The seasonal layer, the cluster method, and the analog top-3 composite all point to the late-September-into-October zone. The 60-year cycle’s timing lands here too. The 1966 price overlay is off after June 4, but the cycle’s turn date stays in the window, so like last year I’d give it more weight in the second half.

The 1936 March low (90-year) echoed in a March 2026 low, and that year ended with a high into early 1937. So 2026 may well end with a high. That’s the complexity we have to work with.

Where the cycles disagree, I keep the options open. Confirmation comes from the chart, not the calendar.

There’s an inversion case worth weighing. 1898 is the bullish exception in the top-3 set, and the June 4 break above the 1966 forecast suggests 2026 may be tracking a stronger analog.

If 1898 leads, the back half would hold its September high, and the autumn decline would come in shallower than the composite shows, or not at all.

Conclusion

Two windows stand out for the back half: the August 7-8 zone, now carried by both the seasonal date and the top-3 analog low, and the late-September-into-October zone, where three cycles agree on a low.

This is my bias for now: the composite path through both windows, with 1898 as the inversion case that would keep the market stronger for longer, similar to the 90-year cycle (the 1936 similarity). No advice.

Back to the reader who said the 60-year cycle went off track. He’s partly right, which is the point. No single cycle predicts everything. The 60-year is one cycle in the hierarchy. The cluster method gives a monthly watch window. The analog set re-sorts as the year goes on. These methods are worth most when they agree.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next update on the inflection points, or sooner if the path breaks early. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join. To follow all of my research and the 2026 forecast, subscribe for free.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my article #303 “Wheels Within Wheels” I highlighted May 21st–22nd as a near-term hotspot and laid out two scenarios for the July 2nd–4th cycle window: a major low near 42,149, or an inversion where the DJIA clears its February resistance first and July marks a high instead. The signal to watch was whether the Dow pushed through 50,512.

On May 22nd it closed at 50,580. The inversion case has gained probability.

Last week the 60-year cycle’s correlation to 2026 dropped to r=0.22; well below the 2001 analog at r=0.84. The closest historical match to 2026 peaked last Thursday (21st).

Using a Mass Pressure model, which finds the nearest historical matches by pattern correlation across 125 years of DJIA data, shows 2001 as the strongest analog (r=0.84), running less than one index point from 2026 right now.

In 2001, the path from this point turned lower through the second half of the year. These two frameworks are pointing to the same stretch of a probable forecast from different starting points.

What Mass Pressure measures

A Mass Pressure model is a cumulative return model that resets to 100 on January 1 each year. As the year progresses, the actual percentage move is measured against the start of the year. Above 100 means the index is up for the year; below means it’s down. The model finds the three closest historical matches by correlation across 125 years of data and runs a separate 500-path statistical simulation. When both methods come together, the signal is stronger.

As of May 22nd, Mass Pressure sits at 105.24. The Dow closed at 50,580, up from a year-start level of 48,063. The path wasn’t straight. The market sold off to 93.97 around day 86 (March 30th) before recovering through April and May.

The five gray lines on the above chart come from 500 simulated year-end paths based on the past 60 days of market volatility. The middle dashed line is the median. The inner dotted lines bracket 68% of paths, the one-sigma band, two out of three simulated years. The outer dashed lines cover 90%. They currently run from MP 89.9 to MP 141.4: a wide spread consistent with the analog divergence below.

How the analogs tracked 2026 so far.

The three analogs tracked 2026 through different parts of the year before separating.

• The year 2001 (orange, r=0.84) is running almost side by side with the actuals of 2026: 104.36 vs 105.24 at day 142 (May 22nd), less than one point apart. Both had a sharp spring selloff and strong recovery. In 2001, the path from day 141 (May 21st) turned lower. The market declined through the second half and closed the year at MP 93.68, implying a Dow equivalent of around $45,000.

• The analog year 2023 (purple, r=0.67) tracked January almost identically but stalled in the spring recovery, sitting at 100.42 by day 142, five points below 2026. Full-year path points to ~$57,000.

• The 2020 analog (green, r=0.66) diverged sharply after the COVID crash and by day May 22nd had only recovered to 85.73, nearly 20 points below 2026. Full-year forecast implies ~$63,000, but the paths look nothing alike from March onward.

How the analogs may track 2026 continuing its past pattern, starting from May 22nd, price level is plotted on the next chart. The middle path is a blend — useful as an anchor, less so as a directional forecast when the analogs are pulling this far apart.

The 60-year cycle: 1906, 1966, and 2026

The 60-year cycle is the most important cycle I track. Often themes from the past resonate on this 60-year sequence. The probable mechanism is astronomical. The seven classical planets, the ones the days of the week are named after, return to the same position in the sky on a 60-year cycle. The 120 and 180-year multiples mark further full rotations and are worth tracking alongside.

The DJIA dataset, from 1900 onwards, holds two instances: 1966 is the 60-year echo of 2026, and 1906 is the 120-year echo.

The 1906 → 1966 pair shows genuine structural similarity through the first half (r=0.74 through day 142): mild January rally, spring selloff, both below 100 by late May. After day 142 (May 22nd) the echo broke down: 1906 recovered to nearly flat (MP 98.08), while 1966 fell to a trough of 76.79 in October and closed at 81.06, down 19%. Full-year correlation drops to r=0.29. The cycle reproduced the first-half pattern but split on the second half.

2026 has already separated from both prior instances. Where 1906 and 1966 were in the red by late May, 2026 is up 5.24%. The spring dip-and-recovery is present. But the recovery carried further than either prior cycle reached at this point. By May 22nd, 2026’s correlation to the 1966 path stands at r=0.22; the structural echo is there in the first half, but the second-half paths are pulling apart.

What the numbers say

The statistical median and the analog blend both land near 113–114 by year-end, roughly $54,000–$55,000. When two independent methods land on the same range, that’s worth weighting, reducing the chance the middle is just a meaningless average of divergent paths. A spread this wide across the top-3 analogs signals regime uncertainty: the model has no strong directional lean when the analogs pull this far apart.

The 2001 path is the one to watch. Strongest correlation, tracking 2026 point-for-point right now, peaked at the same point in the calendar, and historically declined from here.

The Mass Pressure model places the rollover risk in the same half of the calendar that the planetary framework from #303 identified. The analog doesn’t pinpoint July specifically, but both frameworks point to the same second-half window.

What to monitor

• Whether Mass Pressure holds above 100 through June. A break below the year-start level brings the 2001 bear path back into focus.

• The distance between 2001 and 2026 on Chart 2. Right now they’re aligned. If 2026 continues higher, the bearish echo is loosening its grip. The inversion scenario from my #303 “Wheels within Wheels” article gains further probability.

• The 1966 path as the primary 60-year reference. Watch whether 2026 continues to separate from it or whether a summer correction starts to close the gap. (See my article: #286 The Sixth-Year Itch: A Forecast for US Indices in 2026.)

• The June 17th Fed decision. CME FedWatch currently prices a 98% probability of no cut. In 2001, the Fed was cutting aggressively through the second half, 11 reductions from 6.5% to 1.75% by year-end. That policy cushion doesn’t exist in the same form today. A market that weakens without Fed support moves differently than 2001 did.

• Whether the reported US-Iran framework agreement moves toward implementation. A reopened Strait of Hormuz removes an oil risk premium from the market, which historically supports equities and takes away one of the macro disruption events that could otherwise accelerate the bearish path. If it progresses, it favors a continuation of the inversion scenario into July.

Conclusion

The Mass Pressure model and the cycle framework from #303 point to the same stretch of the calendar from different starting points. The closest statistical analog peaked last Thursday (21st) and historically declined from here. The planetary cycle window lands in early July.

We’re dealing with probabilities. Neither method specifies the outcome: the 2001 bear path, the 2020 bull recovery, or something in between all remain on the table. The 2001 analog tracked 2026 point for point to last Thursday. The road to July 4th is six weeks out. Time may tell.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

There are two cycles I haven’t shown you yet. The cycles of Mars and Venus that run together. Three cycles of Venus helio fit almost perfectly in one cycle of Mars.

1 × Mars = 686.98 calendar days. 3 × Venus = 674.10 calendar days. Those two run within 1.91% of each other. When two independent planetary cycles land that close to the same period, the timing signal carries more weight than either alone.

Together, they point to a major inflection around July 2nd–4th, 2026. The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and NYSE Composite all sit in this cycle’s path. Whether July 4th turns out to be a major low or a major high is the honest question I’ll work through in this newsletter update. I don’t have a certain answer. The coming weeks should start to provide one.

New readers may want to start with my latest posts: #299 - My Banker Called Me Nuts and #300 - New Highs and the Jupiter-Saturn Clock, where I covered the 60-year cycle, the 4-year cycle, and the Jupiter-Saturn framework that brought us to this point.

The Mars/Venus - Pluto cycles

The large red semi-circle on the DJIA chart below ranges from approximately August 2024 to early July 2026, 686 calendar days. It crested near the February 10th all-time high on the DJIA. The semi-circle’s projected trough falls on July 2nd–4th, 2026, where the 4-year and 60-year cycles are expected to land.

Two additional cycles sit alongside it. The Venus-Pluto and Mars-Pluto heliocentric cycles, with the Venus square Pluto and Mars square Pluto aspects as important inflection points. These have marked turning points in the US indices in prior cycles, and they’re heading to a similar square aspect with Pluto in the same July window.

The chart also shows four Kite formations (planetary geometries) from a heliocentric view involving:

• Venus, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, as seen in August 2024, one in March 2025, one in early November 2025 and one around mid-June 2026

• Earth, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, as seen in March 2025 and March 2026

• Earth, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune unfolding in third week of May 2026

A Kite is a Grand Trine anchored by an opposition: four planets in a configuration, perhaps guiding or forcing the trend toward a specific target, a low or a high.

A Kite has three components.

• The body is a Grand Trine: three planets positioned 120° apart, forming an equilateral triangle. Harmonious by nature, but passive. Left alone, a Grand Trine rarely produces a sharp directional move.

• The tail changes that. A fourth planet sits in opposition (180°) to one corner of the triangle. That tension activates the trine, converting harmony into directed energy.

• The fourth planet also forms two sextiles (60°) with the other two corners. These act as stabilizers, giving the whole configuration a clear focal point. The result: momentum with a target.

These Kites may have been the cause for the bull market’s momentum through 2025 and into mid-2026. Whether they drove it or simply reflected it, the geometries since August 2024 were in harmony with the strong trend.

There is another geometry worth mentioning from a helio perspective. In 2025, a Yod (Venus, Uranus, Neptune) synced up with the low in April 2025 and the November 2025 low. The next one unfolds early July 2026.

Looking at the chart, at the first two instances in 2025, the Yod fell into the Venus square Pluto aspects. The Yod marked the end of a short-term decline, in a longer-term uptrend supported by the Kite formations.

Venus rules money and value. Neptune feeds the illusion that markets can only go higher, that speculation is rational, that the trend has no ceiling. Together they make the crowd believe in the move right up until it ends.

Uranus is the disruptor. Sudden shocks, volatility, behavior that can go either way.

Hence, the semi-circles on the above chart are potential inflection points, either a high or a low.

The DJIA closed at 49,499 on May 1st. That’s roughly 2% below the February intraday high of 50,512, consolidating in a range the market hasn’t broken since April 17th. Three attempts at the 49,720 level. Three failures.

In #300, I flagged April 22nd as the Jupiter-Saturn geocentric crest date. The market has been unable to push meaningfully past that level since, which is consistent with the semi-circle’s behavior after a crest. However, the Venus opposition Pluto aspect may hint that the fourth attempt breaks through.

The US indices

The four indices: DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the NYSE Composite are not in the same place right now, and that gap matters.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have pushed to new all-time highs since February 10th. The DJIA has not. It still needs to clear 50,512 to confirm the breakout. That divergence (the S&P and Nasdaq leading while the DJIA trails) is intermarket bearish divergence. It’s been in effect since the February peak and it hasn’t resolved.

The broader NYSE Composite index is in a similar position as the DJIA and hasn’t broken the all-time highs of early 2026 yet.

The near-term hotspots on the way to July: May 10th, May 21st–22nd, and June 14th. Think of these as potential short-term inflection points within the larger move, not the cycle low itself.

Two scenarios into July

If the semi-circle plays out as a low, the DJIA target near July 4th sits around 42,149. From current price, that’s a further decline of roughly 15%.

The inversion scenario: the current consolidation near 49,500 resolves upward, the DJIA clears 50,512, and July 4th marks a high instead. The real decline would then start from there.

My bias is toward the low scenario. Back in my post: #286 - Kicking Off 2026, published January 17th, I outlined five long-term cycles all pointing to a high between January and May 2026, followed by a decline.

Among them: Louise McWhirter’s 18.6-year cycle of the Moon’s North Node, the 22-year solar cycle, and the 60-year cycle and 1966 analog from my Newsletter #299. They all pointed the same way. The February 10th all-time high landed right in that window.

In my newsletter #282 - The Long-term cycles in US Indices, I wrote:

It was time for them to crest. The February high landed almost exactly where the setup said it would.

In my newsletter: #300 | New Highs and the Jupiter-Saturn Clock, I called the April bounce the “second crest” scenario, a short-term recovery within a longer downtrend. That’s still my read. The DJIA’s failure to confirm the S&P and Nasdaq breakout only adds weight to it. But the inversion carries real probability. I’ve seen this cycle flip before. The May 10th and May 21st–22nd hotspots should start to tell us which path the market is on.

Conclusion

Over the past couple of months I have discussed several important cycles while the US stock market continued to even higher highs. It shows that when multiple long-term cycles and several geometries are unfolding it may be hard to forecast when the overall market will roll over.

The Mars/Venus composite is a new analytical layer on top of the 60-year cycle, the 4-year cycle, and the Jupiter-Saturn framework we discussed earlier. It points to the same early July window from a different starting point. When independent cycles arrive at the same date without being fitted to each other, I take that seriously.

If the current trend continues into that time window, the upcoming squares of Mars and Venus with Pluto may mark a high, instead of an expected low around the Venus-Uranus-Neptune Yod. The three Yods in 2025-2026 will then have a low-low-high sequence, which is often seen in the stock market.

I’ll be watching the chart closely. If the indices are still pressing against resistance by May 21st–22nd, the low scenario stays on the table. If the DJIA has pushed through 50,512 to new all-time highs, the inversion case around the Yod and the Venus and Mars square Pluto aspects gains probability.

Time may tell.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

"Politicians are like tigers." (S.S.S.) In my experience they do anything to stay in power.

I heard this from a wise man many years ago, during one of his lectures. He was being gentle, actually. His full quote was: “Politicians are like tigers; the essential difference is that tigers aren’t always ferocious while politicians are.”

Politics and Sentiment Define the Direction in 2026

The examples write themselves. Tariff increases in 1965/1966. Vietnam. Ukraine. Now Iran. Whether it is the politics from East or West, North or South, it’s all the same.

Leaders do what they need to do to stay in power, and the people follow, bound by what the wise man in the lecture described this way:

That sentiment is the key. It’s what keeps a nation behind its leaders, right up until the moment it doesn’t.

In 2026, the US market is living this out in real time. One day a ceasefire is announced. The next, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The day after, bombing resumes. Market sentiment follows the people, and the people follow the tiger.

Hence the market goes hither and thither, with no clear direction.

Which is exactly what midterm years tend to do, and what you see in the above chart on the computer screen.

(BTW: I’ve put a chart on a computer screen, with a tiger watching behind it. It felt appropriate.)

The midterm year

2026 is a US Midterm election year, the second year of the presidential term. I’ve gathered 35 midterm years of DJIA data to put what we’re seeing into context.

The chart below shows the average DJIA performance across those 35 midterm years, overlaid on how 2026 has performed so far.

The average midterm year ends roughly +/- 2% from where it started. That sounds tame. The range of outcomes around that average is anything but.

The spread: -25% to +45%

When you plot all 35 midterm years individually, the picture gets more interesting.

In difficult midterm years, the market has fallen as much as 25%, as it did in 1966. In prosperous ones, it ended the year up 45%. The average of +/- 2% is probably the best most people can hope for right now, given the current environment.

This is what makes forecasting a midterm year genuinely hard. The spread of outcomes is enormous. And whether you end up closer to 1966 or to one of the better years depends largely on the behavior of the tiger.

The Composite Analyzer: top 3 analogs

To get a sharper view, I’ve built a tool that identifies the top 3 midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance, from January through last week. It then plots those years alongside 2026.

The three years that came to the surface are 1966, 1926, and 1898.

That’s the 60-year cycle, the 100-year cycle, and a 128-year cycle, all surfacing together. The DJIA tracked all three years very closely from January through last week.

1966 has the strongest correlation. 1898 is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here. 1926 sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top 3, a sideways drift that echoes the broader 35-year midterm average.

Each of these years carries its own resonance. In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power, through victory in the Spanish-American War, trying to gain military and economic power across the Pacific and Caribbean, from the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico to annexing Hawaii. (Source: Office of the Historian.gov)

In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election. The themes present in 2026 sit closest to 1966 and 1898. Though I’ll admit the 1926 parallel, AI today versus electrification then, is not easy to dismiss.

My bias: the 1966 analog

My bias is for 1966. The correlation from January through last week is the strongest of the three. And the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. The DJIA fell roughly 25% in 1966.

I haven’t made this chart dynamically adjustable for today’s volatility yet. But the direction is visible. I’ll update it week to week to see how the midterm year plays out.

Of course, I can be wrong. Other years may become more dominant as we move forward. The cycles can invert.

Conclusion

The midterm year in 2026 is following the pattern I’d expect. The tiger is ferocious. The sentiment is volatile. And the market is reflecting both.

The top 3 analogs, 1966, 1926, and 1898, all tracked 2026 closely through last week. From here, the paths diverge sharply. In the next month or two, the picture should become clearer.

This is my bias for now. I’ll follow it week to week and update the charts as new data comes in. The next few weeks will tell us quite a bit.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. No advice. Be careful out there.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Last week, I wrote that two scenarios were on the table. I said we’d know by the 3rd or 4th week of April which one would prevail. The market has given us an answer of sorts: a rebound into new highs. Many will take that as proof that the worst is behind us.

I’m not so sure.

In last week’s post, I also mentioned that the Mars Helio cycle carried about a 60% probability of a short-term bounce. That bounce appears to be playing out. But a bounce within a larger downtrend is still a downtrend. And when I look at the Jupiter-Saturn cycle, the 60-year pattern may still be very much intact.

Are you convinced the bull market has resumed? Or do the longer cycles tell a different story?

The 60-Year Cycle and Its Jupiter-Saturn Foundation

The nominal 60-year Gann Master Cycle isn’t arbitrary. It’s roughly 3 times the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle, the time it takes for Jupiter and Saturn to realign after a conjunction. Each Jupiter-Saturn cycle runs about 19.86 years, and three of those bring us to approximately 59.6 years.

The importance of the 60-year cycle is that the planets that make up the names of our weekdays, after 60 years, return to approximately the same part of the zodiac.

As I wrote earlier in a post in October 2021:

As Prof Weston observed more than 100 years ago, the stock market rises in year 5 of this cycle, when Jupiter squares Saturn.

Further research has shown that the 60-year cycle appears in other aspects of our lives, including climate indices such as temperature, sea level, and oceanic oscillations. Even Jupiter’s 60-year oscillations in its orbit may affect our climate.

A 60-year cycle can be found in the calendrical systems of India and China. Even in our fashion and politics (US tariff increases in 1965/1966), we can see the effect of the 60-year cycle.

In 1966, the Democrats lost the midterm elections to the GOP, and the stock market declined sharply along with it, due to inflation fears and dissatisfaction with the Vietnam War.

If Polymarket odds are any guide, the GOP may lose the midterms this time. That could put a similar stress on the stock market as we saw in 1966. Maybe the war in Iran continues for some time to come, resonating with Vietnam. Or maybe another conflict surfaces. Time may tell.

This is why the 60-year cycle has teeth. The planetary framework underneath it keeps regenerating the same conditions, in the same sequence, decade after decade. The same resonance shows up far beyond the stock market. Themes from 60 years ago surface again in society at large.

You can look at this path from a geocentric perspective, as shown in the chart below.

From a heliocentric perspective, the path through the zodiac looks different, as shown below.

The difference between the two charts is that from time to time Jupiter and/or Saturn have retrograde periods, causing the double bottom visible on the geocentric chart between 190 and 240 degrees.

Overlaying these paths over the DJIA illustrates that the Dow is still on the Jupiter-Saturn cycle path from both perspectives.

DJIA and the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle: Geo and Helio Combined

To understand where the markets stand within the Jupiter-Saturn cycle, I’ve overlaid the DJIA with both the geocentric and heliocentric paths of the cycle in time.

In the chart above, I have overlaid the DJIA prices with the Jupiter-Saturn geo and helio cycle paths, and displayed the retrograde periods of Jupiter, Saturn, and Mercury in the planetary positions panels, along with the ingress of the North Node into Aquarius, Uranus into Gemini, and the Jupiter Cancer–Leo ingress.

Saturn, Jupiter, and Mercury all turned direct respectively in December 2025 (Saturn) and March 2026 (Jupiter/Mercury), so those retrograde periods are behind us. The upcoming Mercury and Saturn retrograde periods and the three ingresses of Jupiter, the North Node, and Uranus are the hotspots still ahead.

A few things to note. The overlay does not forecast price. It maps the cyclical rhythm and timing onto the price chart, showing where the cycle crests, troughs, and key turning zones fall in time. Whether the market follows or inverts is always the question.

What the chart does show is that the DJIA has moved into the geo crest of the current Jupiter-Saturn cycle around April 22nd, 2026. The geocentric path is more aligned with what the actual market does, as the heliocentric path reached a crest by early February 2026. Moving forward from today, both paths appear to confirm each other.

It is always difficult to say which perspective has been the better leading indicator in previous cycles. From a geocentric view, retrograde periods may not be the same every 60 years. I always check both.

Hotspots Ahead: Retrogrades and Planetary Ingresses

At the bottom of the chart above, I’ve marked the retrograde periods of Mercury and Saturn, the North Node’s move into Aquarius, Uranus’s move into Gemini, and Jupiter’s move from Cancer into Leo in July 2026. Together, these planetary events define several hotspots to keep an eye on going forward.

For a long-term cycle like the Jupiter-Saturn cycle, it may take time before the markets turn. It’s like a ship on the ocean: it can’t immediately change direction. I’ll update the charts as we approach each of these dates.

The Probability: 80% Across 6 Synodic Cycles

The question, of course, is whether this is a coincidence or a pattern. The chart below shows the historical probability.

The above chart describes the probabilities of the DJIA aligning with the 6 Jupiter-Saturn cycles over the last 120 years. The only period that shows inversions is between 1966 and 1986, probably caused by retrograde periods of longer-term cycles.

Across the last 6 synodic cycles, about 120 years of data, when the markets reached this point in the Jupiter-Saturn geo cycle, the market turned approximately 80% of the time. That’s not certainty. But it’s a probability worth respecting.

What New Highs Mean Within the Cycle

The recent surge in the indices might seem to contradict the bearish case. I’d argue it doesn’t.

In last week’s post, the Mars Helio cycle pointed to a possible rebound into mid-May, with a roughly 60% probability. A short-term bounce was part of the picture, not a contradiction of it. The 60-year Gann Master Cycle from 1966 also showed a recovery phase before the larger trend resumed.

This is my bias for now. The new highs may be the “second crest” scenario I mentioned last week. Time may tell.

Conclusion

So far, the US indices appear to be following the rebound scenario I outlined last week. The Jupiter-Saturn geo cycle now adds a new layer of confirmation. The markets have run into the crest of this cycle, and historically, that has been a significant inflection point 80% of the time.

April 22nd, 2026, is the date to watch first. Beyond that, the Mercury and Saturn retrograde periods, the North Node’s move into Aquarius, Uranus’s move into Gemini, and Jupiter’s move into Leo in July 2026 mark additional hotspots through the rest of the year. I’ll continue to update these as we move closer.

I may be wrong, of course. The 20% scenario, that it may take longer than expected, exists. If the indices push convincingly past the expected time period +/- 2 weeks, I’ll update the analysis. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. The financial markets remain highly volatile, and capital preservation is still my priority.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

Share

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.

Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

My banker called me nuts at the end of last year when I pulled out of many positions I had held over the past few years. I explained that the 2026 forecast based on the 60-year cycle was the main reason for pulling out and preserving capital for better times.

I have been following the 60-year cycle for over 18 years and was convinced this cycle would follow the previous pattern again. I may be wrong, of course, as this cycle can invert. So far, I have no regrets. I pulled out some profits. BTW: I still have a considerable amount invested and am always looking for new opportunities.

First, let us revisit the 60- and 4-year cycle updates for the DJIA. I have updated the charts and commentary I used over the past few weeks,

DJIA - The 60-year Cycle & Planetary Time Clusters

New readers may want to read my previous post first. The DJIA is continuing on its course like clockwork, following the 4-year and 60-year cycles.

In the updated chart below, based on last week’s chart, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected. I have added a green overlay of a 60-year cycle.

The 60-year cycle forecast has been updated from April 10th, 2026, onward. So far, the DJIA continues to follow the same pattern as in 1966. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

👉Although many respected analysts may argue that the worst is over and that there is little evidence that past cycle patterns will recur. So far, I differ in my opinion when looking at the charts for 1966 and 2026.

As you can see in the chart above, even the 50- and 200-day averages in both years show remarkable similarities. Note that I overlaid the 60-year cycle pattern without adjusting it for today’s volatility. April 21st is the next important inflection point to watch.

👉 Of course, from time to time, this cycle can invert for a couple of months, as we have seen before. Always watch the chart in front of you.

DJIA - 4-year Cycle

The chart I showed you earlier shows the long-term trend from March 2020 onward. The mid-March low was similar in price and timing to the one from 4 years ago. I have plotted the 4-year analog in dotted black on the chart to remind us that what happened 4 years ago may happen again.

The DJIA recently found support at a 10% decline from its February 2026 peak. If the downtrend continues and falls below this level (shown in green on the chart), we may see a decline of about 20% from the peak, which aligns with the lower trend channel line.

DJIA - Shorter-term forecast

In my last post, I explained the importance of a cycle to forecast the next inflection point using a circle around a key swing wave. New readers may want to re-read this part first.

In the chart below, I have highlighted in blue the circle around the first impulsive wave from the crest, which started on February 12th and ended on February 20th, 2026. You can see that the radius of the circle is the move in price, which can be expressed in time or seen as the duration of the cycle.

Note: This may continue to work for some time when you lock the price/time ratio on the chart.

👉 Providing the harmonic relationship between previous vectors will continue in the future, the next inflection points may be found at the right edge of each circle (cycle). This aligns with the 60-year cycle forecast.

Note that the cycle at the top of the chart is based on the seed cycle in blue (midpoint at 10/3/2025) that locked the chart’s price/time ratio. This price-to-time ratio, to which the chart is set, may work for quite some time.

Hence, based on this analysis, the next trend change could occur as early as mid-April or as late as mid-May 2026, before we can see a clear direction the market will take. Perhaps, in Elliott Wave terms, we are now in an Elliott Wave 2 of some degree.

Perhaps this may follow the Mars Helio Position through the Zodiac.

Mars Helio Cycle

The Mars Helio Cycle is an almost 689-day calendar cycle, with its most recent low occurring in August 2024. This marks the midpoint of a nearly two-year cycle that began when Mars entered Taurus at 31 degrees.

This cycle is connected to the low in October 2022, which occurred at approximately the same Mars degrees, as Mars entered Taurus in late September to early October 2022.

If this cycle repeats, we can expect, with some ups and downs, a rebound into mid-May 2026, followed by a decline toward June 2026, when Mars reenters Taurus. This cycle can sometimes invert.

There is no way to know whether the Mars Helio cycle will invert this time. The first chart (DJIA Daily Chart - Mars Helio Cycle) suggests this cycle may invert for now, in line with the 60-year cycle. However, in the last 12 occurrences, Mars’s average zodiac path has remained consistent, as shown in the chart above.

👉 Hence, it is possible we may enter a period in which the 60-year cycle can invert. A possible second crest?

Conclusion

So far, the US indices appear to follow important 60-year and 4-year cycle patterns. The geometric analysis suggests we may have reached a potential inflection point on March 30, 2026, which aligns with these time cycles. The next inflection point, using the geometric method of circles around recent swings, is around April 21st, 2026. This may be only a short-term rebound within a longer-term downtrend.

However, it seems that the Mars Helio Cycle, an almost 2-year cycle, also corresponds to these cycles when using the circle method. From time to time, this cycle may cause an inversion of the longer-term cycles if the Mars Helio Cycle repeats, as we have seen in the last 12 instances.

We may then expect, with some fluctuations, a possible rebound into mid-May 2026, followed by a decline toward June 2026 when Mars enters Taurus again. This may result in a short rebound from March 30th, 2026, into mid-May 2026. There is about a 60% chance the US Indices will follow this cycle. The consequence will be that the 60- and 4-year cycles may invert for some time.

The financial markets are highly volatile right now, and this may continue for a while, as there is no clear path to the end of the war in Iran. At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may foresee some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles may contract or extend, and no forecast is certain. This analysis is for educational purposes—always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

I hope you enjoyed a wonderful time with your family and friends around Easter.

I have updated the post below and added a section on the nearly 2-year Mars Helio cycle, along with a summary conclusion.

Although most markets around the world are closed for a few days, I have updated last week’s DJIA chart to reflect on important long-term and short-term cycles. In this post, we will take a fresh look at how to align Price and Time from a geometric perspective.

On March 30th, the US Indices squared out in Price & Time. Where Price and Time align, or are at equilibrium, a change in trend may occur. In this post, I will show how a circle around key waves can be useful in identifying potential inflection points or trend changes.

First, let us look at the 60- and 4-year cycle updates for the DJIA.

DJIA - The 60-year Cycle & Planetary Time Clusters

New readers may want to read my previous post first. You can find it here and here.

The DJIA is continuing its course like clockwork following the 4-year and 60-year cycles.

In the updated chart below, based on last week’s chart, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected. I have added a green overlay of a 60-year cycle.

The 60-year cycle forecast has been updated from April 1st, 2026, onwards.

So far, the DJIA continues to follow this same pattern as seen 60 years ago. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

Zooming in on the same chart and time clusters, you can see that an increase in Time Clusters, hard planetary aspects, often causes a decrease in price over time. A decrease in time clusters may often cause an increase in Price.

Due to the recent panic over the Oil Crisis in Iran and fears that inflation and rising interest rates may return, the downtrend has been more volatile than it was 60 years ago.

DJIA - 4-year Cycle

The chart I showed you earlier displays the long-term trend from March 2020 onwards. The mid-March low was similar in price and time to that of 4 years ago. I have plotted the 4-year analog in dotted black on the chart to remind ourselves that what happened 4 years ago may happen again.

The DJIA recently found support at a 10% decline from its February 2026 peak. If the downtrend continues and falls below this level (indicated in green on the chart), we may see a decline of around 20% from the peak, which corresponds to the lower trend channel line.

The importance of a Circle

In this post, I would like to show you how a circle around a key high-to-low wave can forecast the next inflection point.

In the chart above, for example, I have drawn a circle from the midpoint to the top of the previous high. That radius, or price vector, is equal in length to the horizontal radius or the duration in time. The ratio of time to price suggests a high in February 2026, with the circle ending on the right edge. This is a geometric way of squaring Price with Time.

As you can draw a square around the circle, it is obvious what W.D. Gann might have meant by squaring Price and Time in using a circle. 1

Think of the circle as a way of linking price and time. If you start from an important low or midpoint and draw the circle up to the previous high or next major high, that radius is not just a price distance — it’s also the cycle’s time measure.

In the next examples, I will use the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini Futures Contract (YMSpot). I posted one of the charts below earlier this week in this Substack note.

How to identify important trend changes

First, where should we start to draw important circles to forecast the next inflection points?

In identifying significant trend changes where the next cycle waves may start, one can usually find them easily by looking at big bars. Those are usually the bars that exceed a 50-day average true range of 1 Bar ATR and close in the upper/lower part of a bar. 2

These bars are plotted on the chart below in Red and Green. Big bars will likely tell you something is happening in the market. You can see how easily you can use the ATR as a measure of where important trend changes or trend continuations may occur.

Note that the cycle at the top of the chart is based on the seed cycle in blue (midpoint at 10/3/2025) that locked the price/time ratio of the chart. This Price and Time ratio, the chart is set to may work for quite some time in the future.

Each cycle drawn on the chart, in the past or future, is just a harmonic cycle around important waves that follow the same price/time ratio as the seed cycle. Follow the arrows around the circles drawn and see how they forecast the next inflection point.

In the chart below, I have highlighted in blue the circle around the first impulsive wave from the crest, which started on February 12th and ended on February 20th, 2026. You can see that the radius of the circle is the move in price, which can be expressed in time or seen as the duration of the cycle.

This cycle ended precisely on the day that the Dow Index E-mini Futures made a low on March 30th, as price and time are equivalent. Price and Time were squared on that day. Hence, a change in trend may occur.

The next inflection point(s)

On the low of March 30th, 2026, where price and time were squared, I have drawn various circles around waves or bars that may indicate where the next inflection points could be found. Note: on a daily chart, a cycle can be as small as 1 daily bar.

In an uptrend, the end (right side) of a circle often signals that the uptrend may continue or points to the next potential high. In a downtrend, this may indicate either an important low or the continuation of the downtrend.

Multiple cycles create multiple waves: “Wheels within Wheels”.

An important stock market dip with some volatility in the following days often triggers multiple waves that investors react to. This effect might last for a while before it diminishes.

Hence, based on this analysis, the next trend change could occur as early as mid-April or as late as Mid-May 2026 before we can see a clear direction the market will take. Perhaps in Elliott Wave terms, we are now just in an Elliott Wave 4 of some degree.

Perhaps this may follow the Mars Helio Position through the Zodiac.

Mars Helio Cycle

The Mars Helio Cycle is an almost 689-day calendar cycle, with its most recent low occurring in August 2024. This marks a mid-point in a nearly two-year cycle that began when Mars entered Taurus at 31 degrees.

This cycle is connected to the low in October 2022, which occurred at approximately the same Mars degrees, as Mars also entered Taurus in late September to early October 2022

If this cycle repeats, we can expect, with some ups and downs, a possible rebound into mid-May 2026, followed by a decline toward June 2026 when Mars enters Taurus again. This cycle can sometimes invert. However, in the last 12 occurrences, Mars’s average zodiac path has remained consistent, as shown in the chart below.

Conclusion

So far, the US indices appear to follow important 60-year and 4-year cycle patterns. The geometric analysis suggests we may have reached a potential inflection point on March 30, 2026, which aligns with these time cycles. This may be only a short term rebound in a longer term downtrend. Additionally, it seems the Mars Helio Cycle, an almost 2-year cycle, also corresponds with these cycles.

If the Mars Helio Cycle repeats, we can expect, with some fluctuations, a possible rebound into mid-May 2026, followed by a decline toward June 2026 when Mars enters Taurus again. This may result in a short rebound from March 30th, 2026, into mid-May 2026. There is about a 60% chance the US Indices will follow this cycle.

The financial markets are highly volatile right now, and this may continue for a while, as there is no clear path to the end of the war in Iran. At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may foresee some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

As there is always a lot to cover in financial markets, I sometimes make a quick note here on Substack, which lets me spend more time on research rather than writing a lengthy article.

Make sure you have notifications turned on in the web browser or the app to receive a quick post as a note. If you don’t know how to do that, please visit the Substack help files or ask Google Gemini.

Feel free to join the chat group I recently created. You can find it here (click on the link).

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Happy Easter! I hope you enjoy a wonderful time with your family and friends. Although most markets around the world are closed for a few days, I have updated last week’s DJIA chart to reflect on important long-term and short-term cycles. In this post, we will take a fresh look at how to align Price and Time from a geometric perspective.

On March 30th, the US Indices squared out in Price & Time. Where Price and Time align, or are at equilibrium, a change in trend may occur. In this post, I will show how a circle around key waves can be useful in identifying potential inflection points or trend changes.

First, let us look at the 60- and 4-year cycle updates for the DJIA.

DJIA - The 60-year Cycle & Planetary Time Clusters

New readers may want to read my previous post first. You can find it here and here.

The DJIA is continuing its course like clockwork following the 4-year and 60-year cycles.

In the updated chart below, based on last week’s chart, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected. I have added a green overlay of a 60-year cycle.

The 60-year cycle forecast has been updated from April 1st, 2026, onwards.

So far, the DJIA continues to follow this same pattern as seen 60 years ago. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

Zooming in on the same chart and time clusters, you can see that an increase in Time Clusters, hard planetary aspects, often causes a decrease in price over time. A decrease in time clusters may often cause an increase in Price.

Due to the recent panic over the Oil Crisis in Iran and fears that inflation and rising interest rates may return, the downtrend has been more volatile than it was 60 years ago.

DJIA - 4-year Cycle

The chart I showed you earlier displays the long-term trend from March 2020 onwards. The mid-March low was similar in price and time to that of 4 years ago. I have plotted the 4-year analog in dotted black on the chart to remind ourselves that what happened 4 years ago may happen again.

The DJIA recently found support at a 10% decline from its February 2026 peak. If the downtrend continues and falls below this level (indicated in green on the chart), we may see a decline of around 20% from the peak, which corresponds to the lower trend channel line.

The importance of a Circle

In this post, I would like to show you how a circle around a key high-to-low wave can forecast the next inflection point.

In the chart above, for example, I have drawn a circle from the midpoint to the top of the previous high. That radius, or price vector, is equal in length to the horizontal radius or the duration in time. The ratio of time to price suggests a high in February 2026, with the circle ending on the right edge. This is a geometric way of squaring Price with Time.

As you can draw a square around the circle, it is obvious what W.D. Gann might have meant by squaring Price and Time in using a circle. 1

Think of the circle as a way of linking price and time. If you start from an important low or midpoint and draw the circle up to the previous high or next major high, that radius is not just a price distance — it’s also the cycle’s time measure.

In the next examples, I will use the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini Futures Contract (YMSpot). I posted one of the charts below earlier this week in this Substack note.

How to identify important trend changes

First, where should we start to draw important circles to forecast the next inflection points?

In identifying significant trend changes where the next cycle waves may start, one can usually find them easily by looking at big bars. Those are usually the bars that exceed a 50-day average true range of 1 Bar ATR and close in the upper/lower part of a bar. 2

These bars are plotted on the chart below in Red and Green. Big bars will likely tell you something is happening in the market. You can see how easily you can use the ATR as a measure of where important trend changes or trend continuations may occur.

Note that the cycle at the top of the chart is based on the seed cycle in blue (midpoint at 10/3/2025) that locked the price/time ratio of the chart. This Price and Time ratio, the chart is set to may work for quite some time in the future.

Each cycle drawn on the chart, in the past or future, is just a harmonic cycle around important waves that follow the same price/time ratio as the seed cycle. Follow the arrows around the circles drawn and see how they forecast the next inflection point.

In the chart below, I have highlighted in blue the circle around the first impulsive wave from the crest, which started on February 12th and ended on February 20th, 2026. You can see that the radius of the circle is the move in price, which can be expressed in time or seen as the duration of the cycle.

This cycle ended precisely on the day that the Dow Index E-mini Futures made a low on March 30th, as price and time are equivalent. Price and Time were squared on that day. Hence, a change in trend may occur.

The next inflection point(s)

On the low of March 30th, 2026, where price and time were squared, I have drawn various circles around waves or bars that may indicate where the next inflection points could be found. Note: on a daily chart, a cycle can be as small as 1 daily bar.

In an uptrend, the end (right side) of a circle often signals that the uptrend may continue or points to the next potential high. In a downtrend, this may indicate either an important low or the continuation of the downtrend.

Multiple cycles create multiple waves: “Wheels within Wheels”.

An important stock market dip with some volatility in the following days often triggers multiple waves that investors react to. This effect might last for a while before it diminishes.

Hence, based on this analysis, the next trend change could occur as early as mid-April or as late as Mid-May 2026 before we can see a clear direction the market will take. Perhaps in Elliott Wave terms, we are now just in an Elliott Wave 4 of some degree.

Conclusion

I will not make a summary conclusion of today’s post. I let the charts speak for themselves.

The financial markets are highly volatile right now, and this may continue for a while, as there is no clear path to the end of the war in Iran. At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

As there is always a lot to cover in financial markets, I sometimes make a quick note here on Substack, which lets me spend more time on research rather than writing a lengthy article.

Make sure you have notifications turned on in the web browser or the app to receive a quick post as a note. If you don’t know how to do that, please visit the Substack help files or ask Google Gemini.

As I am enjoying a long weekend around Easter, I am unable to respond to your questions or remarks. Feel free to join the chat group I recently created so I can address your questions when I return to the office on Tuesday. You can find it here (click on the link).

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

The 4-year and 60-year cycles in US and global indices may not have reached their lows yet, as market volatility continues amid the conflict in Iran. During these times, I prefer to stay out of the markets and see how things unfold. Once volatility subsides, there will likely be good opportunities to enter new positions. In this DJIA update, I am sharing new research and analysis on stocks like CRM, META, MSFT, RBLX, SLB, AMCOR, and Gen Digital.

Though it’s not the end of the week, I wanted to share my latest update on the DJIA before heading out for a long weekend. All of the data is as of March 25th, 2026.

I’ve included some new and interesting research on various stocks that may be approaching an inflection points.

DJIA - The 60-year Cycle & Planetary Time Clusters

New readers may want to read my previous post first. You can find it here.

The DJIA is continuing its course like clockwork following the 4-year and 60-year cycles.

In the updated chart below, based on last week’s chart, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected. I have added a green overlay of a 60-year cycle.

I have plotted the 60-year cycle from the same calendar day as 60 years ago (February 9th) in green, and we may be close to an inflection point, provided the DJIA continues to follow this same pattern as seen 60 years ago. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

Zooming in on the same chart and time clusters, you can see that an increase in Time Clusters, hard planetary aspects, often causes a decrease in price over time. A decrease in time clusters may often cause an increase in Price.

Due to the recent panic over the Oil Crisis in Iran and fears that inflation and rising interest rates may return, the downtrend has been more volatile than it was 60 years ago. This may persist if the crisis continues, and the projected rebound in April may not recur as seen in 1966.

DJIA - 4-year Cycle

The chart I showed you earlier displays the long-term trend from March 2020 onwards. The mid-March low was similar in price and time to that of 4 years ago. I have plotted the 4-year analog in dotted black on the chart to remind ourselves that what happened 4 years ago may happen again.

The DJIA is currently finding support at a 10% decline from its February 2026 peak. If the downtrend continues and falls below this level (indicated in green on the chart), we may see a decline of around 20% from the peak, which corresponds to the lower trend channel line.

From the research table

In this section, I am sharing some very interesting research from my desk on various stocks that have reached key price and time levels, or may be very close to them.

My research is based on discrete planetary events that occur in sequence, with significant highs and lows over the last 5 years or less, for stocks with less than 5 years of history.

Although my research is still in its early stages, it shows strong merit when a stock changes trend in line with these planetary steps or events, moving from highs to lows.

I’m beta-testing my research and automating it, which will allow me to receive automated signals in the near future. So, be careful to draw conclusions already based on the stock analyses I am sharing below.

Note: The solid blue lines on the chart originate from the top, while the green lines originate from the bottom, both projecting forward. The dashed blue and green lines indicate the reverse planetary steps (if applicable).

I have provided comments in the various charts, so I will not add further commentary. The charts are in alphabetical order.

AMCR - Amcor PLC

CRM - Salesforce Inc

GEN - Gen Digital

META - Meta Platforms Inc

MSFT - Microsoft

RBLX - Roblox Corporation

SLB - Schlumberger Ltd

SPG - S&P Global Inc.

As you can see on the various charts, a confluence of important planetary steps from past highs and lows always needs to be confirmed by additional indicators, such as the slow stochastic on these charts. Even then, that may not be enough, as this indicator can stay overbought or oversold for some considerable time.

Looking back at past inflection points, I’ve noticed that when planetary movements align with key moments, there is a higher probability that a trend change may occur. Remember, though, that these insights are observations and not specific advice to buy or sell any stocks.

Conclusion

I will not make a summary conclusion of today’s post. I let the charts speak for themselves.

The financial markets are highly volatile right now, and this may continue for a while, as there is no clear path to the end of the war in Iran. At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

As there is always a lot to cover in financial markets, I sometimes make a quick note here on Substack, which lets me spend more time on research rather than writing a lengthy article.

Make sure you have notifications turned on in the web browser or the app to receive a quick post as a note. If you don’t know how to do that, please visit the Substack help files or ask Google Gemini.

As I am enjoying a long weekend off from the computer, I am not able to answer your questions or remarks. Please feel free to send me a Direct Message in the Chat function with, so I will pick up your queries once I am back in the office on Monday.

PS: I prefer answering on DM’s to save me time to spend on more research.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

The financial markets have recently been highly volatile. This may persist amid the uncertainty of the Iran conflict. In my latest post, I analyze the DJIA, crude oil, gold, and silver charts, offering updates on both short- and long-term trends.

At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

New subscribers might find it helpful to revisit my older posts on my Substack homepage.

DJIA - The 60-year Cycle & Planetary Time Clusters

The 60-year nominal cycle, based on 3 times the approximate 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle, struck again and tumbled down last week from the 60-year high, on the same day of the month as 60 years ago. It may not be a coincidence, as many cycles return to the same zodiac part every 60-years, but it is never an exact copy of past cycle advances or declines.

On a monthly chart, as shown here and made with Timing Solution software, the correlation over a very long time is good. You can see that, from time to time, although the overall direction is clear, this cycle may experience periods of lower correlation or even inversion. Other cycles may be more dominant around these times. Below is the updated chart from a post (note/tweet) a few days ago.

The high fit over the last 5 years is remarkable, and if this cycle continues, it will take years for the DJIA to surpass the recent all-time high.

The cycle lines on the chart are from Mars-Uranus, and Jupiter-Uranus Helio, and past throughs did have a good fit with these cycles. They may align with the potential future troughs of the 60-year cycle plotted in red.

Note: Time is more important than Price, hence the inflection points at the troughs and crests are more important than the price forecast.

Does the recent decline align with todays planetary constellations, transits, and geometries?

In the updated chart below, based on last week’s chart, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected.

I have plotted the 60-year cycle from the same calendar day as 60 years ago (February 9th) in green, and we may be close to an inflection point, provided the DJIA continues to follow this same pattern as seen 60 years ago. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

Zooming in on the same chart and time clusters, you can see that an increase in Time Clusters, hard planetary aspects, often causes a decrease in price over time. A decrease in time clusters may often cause an increase in Price.

Due to the recent panic over the Oil Crisis in Iran and fears that inflation and rising interest rates may return, the downtrend has been more volatile than it was 60 years ago. This may persist if the crisis continues, and the projected rebound in April may not recur as seen in 1966.

Crude Oil

The war in Iran has stirred up the energy market quite a bit. I had been following cycles of Jupiter, Saturn, Pluto, and Mars over the last two years. Still, I could never have believed that during this time the market would shoot up like a rocket, as it did, and then hurry back in a mirror-image reverse to the angle Jupiter and Saturn were on almost 12 years ago.

A few days ago, I posted the chart below to explain what was happening. You can find the chart here:

You can click on the chart above for more details (in your app or web browser).

Basically, this chart tells you that the Jupiter-Saturn and Jupiter-Pluto cycles have reversed their course from the midpoint, and Jupiter-Saturn may reach a similar high as it did almost 12 years ago by April 2026. If the mirror-image foldback continues, the plotted dashed line may suggest that the energy crisis could affect prices for many years before we return to normal oil prices of around $60 or lower

GOLD

It is no coincidence that Gold reached a high by the end of January 2026. A 49-year cycle was due to expire. Hereafter, inflation fears gripped investors, prompting a sell-off across many asset classes.

I explained this in a tweet or a Substack note back in January (click on the link).

In short, that January chart shows that $Gold Futures reached a channel top from the 1980 high, 45 years ago, and 90 months after the 2018 low. Expecting resistance in the coming weeks at Mars-Pluto conj. (Helio) around the 618% Fib ext. level.

Like Silver, Gold could continue to June 2027 when Jupiter aligns with the 1980 high. You can see in the chart below that, following the Mars-Pluto Helio cycle, a further short-term decline may be expected, at least to the dotted-dashed line or the bold Saturn 1x2 timing line.

Continuing a decline to a 4-year cycle low by August/September 2026 is a likely scenario.

A decline below $4,392 might trigger a decline towards lower levels. For now, Gold may have found support at the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) level in red. Note that the other VWAP levels align with the Saturn Timing lines in solid black.

Silver

Silver and Gold often move together. Hence, a similar high around the same date. Back on January 22nd, 2026, I posted a long-term chart to show you the basic resistance from the 1980 high (from zero points), hinting Silver could find resistance around the $119 level by the end of January, and it did.

You can see in the above chart that Silver hit the 1980 timing line from the zero point.

Often, a stock, index, or commodity reverses polarity once it reaches the same planetary angle the next time, often in a low-to-high or high-to-low sequence. This is why I expect the surge uptrend in Silver may not be over, but a low-to-low sequence is also possible. A recession and lower demand for Silver may cause Silver to trade at a low by June 2027, rather than at an expected high.

On the updated Daily Chart below, I have drawn a large circle around the end-of-January decline. A big drop like that is a cycle in itself. This may indicate that the recent tumble could continue until the end of this cycle (circle), by mid-April to early May.

Timing lines from Mars (red) may align with these dates, and can offer support and resistance. As Mercury is going direct again, one may expect some recovery until Easter, but I do not expect it to be as high as on February 27th, 2026. More commentary can be found on the chart.

Conclusion

I will not make a summary conclusion of today’s post. I let the charts speak for themselves.

The financial markets are highly volatile right now, and this may continue for a while, as there is no clear path to the end of the war in Iran. At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

As there is always a lot to cover in financial markets, I sometimes make a quick note here on Substack, which lets me spend more time on research rather than writing a lengthy article.

Make sure you have notifications turned on in the web browser or the app to be notified of a quick post as a note. If you don’t know how to do that, please visit the Substack help files or ask Google Gemini.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Last week, I showed readers that the U.S. indices are approaching an important inflection point based on the 60-year cycle. In this week’s post, I will further elaborate on the 60-year nominal cycle that is based on 3 times the approximate 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle.

The 60-year parallel theme

The 60-year parallel themes connecting 1966 and 2026 focus on inflation and recession fears, as well as the impacts of war costs (Vietnam: 1966; Iran: 2026). Between 1962 and 1966, we saw the rise of technology stocks, which resurfaced in 2022-2026 with the AI boom, paving the way for the next level of automation.

If you create a table from 1792 (the start of the US Stock Exchange) to today and divide the 30-year Saturn cycle into 6 parts, you notice that similar years in the past, 60 years apart, tend to have similar themes. At least they rhyme. Even 120 years ago, you saw similar themes, like the rise of industrial stocks and panics.

This follows the ideas of W.D. Gann, who used a Hexagon chart to calculate future Price and Time inflection points based on Saturn’s cycle. Each Cube represents a part of the Zodiac, dividing it into 6 parts of 60 degrees. The idea is that similar parts of the Zodiac may reap a similar influence.

The above NYSE timeline is divided into six segments, each covering five years. Every row depicts a 30-year Saturn cycle. The five-year segments may also align with Jupiter, since 60 years, or two rows, can be divided into 12 five-year segments. Looking back 60 years, or two rows earlier, you might find that similar themes reappear in the current era. Hence, the above table shows what happened on the NYSE following both the Jupiter and Saturn cycles.

Note: By the end of 240 years (2027-2031), I expect the stock market to reach a major high, as it did in the early 1970s.

DJIA - Comparing 1966 with 2026

In 1966, the DJIA reached a high of around $1,000 on February 9th and a low of around $500 on October 10th. In green, I have overlaid the 2026 decline, so far from the February 9th,2026 crest, plotted from the February 1966 crest—a rather similar decline in percentage.

In the chart above, I have dated and marked the important inflection points.

I will show you in the charts below that, following Saturn’s planetary steps from the 1966 January-February highs and the 1966 October low, even after 60 years, this still yields significant future inflection points.

Each date in the chart above is connected to the 1966 January and February highs (black/grey) or the 1966 low (blue). This follows a 7.5-degree sequence of Saturn Helio. Even after 60-years the market still resonates on what happened so many degrees of Saturn ago.

DJIA - Planetary Time Clusters

Does the recent decline align with todays planetary constellations, transits, and geometries?

In the chart below, I have plotted the cumulative hard aspects (0, 90, 180 degrees) of planetary transits and included planetary geometries. This illustrates the Time Cycle Clusters at the bottom of the chart, where the highest volatility and market activity are expected.

I have plotted the 60-year cycle from the same calendar day as 60 years ago (February 9th) in green, and we may be close to an inflection point, provided the DJIA continues to follow this same pattern as seen 60 years ago. Even after 60 years, there is an interesting similarity between the 1966 and 2026 inflection points.

Zooming in on the same chart and time clusters, you can see that an increase in Time Clusters, hard planetary aspects, often causes a decrease in price over time. A decrease in time clusters may often cause an increase in Price. You can follow the Price and Time Clusters’ divergence in the chart below.

The chart above shows that the increase in hard aspects through the end of March suggests the recent decline may not be over yet. Plotting Venus Helio planetary lines from key highs and lows also indicates that the DJIA’s recent price levels found support at a Venus Helio planetary line.

The DJIA might stay at its current level through the end of March, or it could drop to the next level. We’ll have to see how the market reacts. After March, I see the hard aspects decline into Easter, which may support some recovery. After Easter, I see the hard aspects increasing again.

DJIA - Jupiter Saturn Cycle

Following 3 times the Jupiter-Saturn cycle from the October 1966 low, May 2026 aligns with the October 1966 trough. This may be a high or a low, but given that the second Jupiter-Saturn cycle was around the high, the probability favors a low for May 2026.

The Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle, starting from the lows of October 10th, 1966, in 90-degree steps, lines up with the high in 2007, just 13 days before the October 10th, 2007, high. Mapping the third segment of this cycle ends on May 20th, 2026, which is 18 years and 7 months after the 2007 highs. This represents 1080 degrees, or three times 360 degrees, of Jupiter-Saturn motion from the October 1966 low.

Note in the above chart that from 2018 onward, the crests in 2021, early 2022, and February 2026 align with a Jupiter planetary line drawn from these peaks. If history repeats, as in 2022, a high for now was probably reached by early February 2026, and we may see a probable trough somewhere between April and July 2026. Jupiter and Saturn planetary lines may provide future support or resistance,

As shown earlier, the recent decline may be only the first leg in a larger decline similar to the 1966 decline, but it may be too early to tell. The economy is resilient, and a sudden end to the Middle East crisis and Oil crisis may turn investors bullish again, which could result in a possible second top in the April-June window. My current bias is that the crest has been set, but cycles can invert.

Top-20 US Stocks

From a Top-20 US Stock perspective, most of the stocks that drive the US Indices appear fundamentally or technically overbought, which supports my hypothesis that there is reason to believe the US Indices could seek lower lows.

Some stocks, like MSFT, Oracle, TSLA, and JPM, show a Slow Stochastic (25,3,3) smaller than 20 on a weekly scale, which could signal they may have found an intermediate bottom for now. But such a signal should always be confirmed with other indicators.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) may be the only stock that is close to a fair value, although Buffett only bought back his stocks in the past when his Price Book value was close to 1.2

Based on sound fundamental or technical criteria, I would like to see lower Price-Earnings Ratios (PE), Price-Book (PB), or Price-Sales (P/S) ratios. For a rebound, I would prefer the weekly slow Stochastic indicator (last column) to be below 20, preferably forming a higher low, before considering taking any additional positions in these stocks.

Conclusion

In this post, we have followed the nominal 60-year cycle, which is equivalent to 3 times the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle. I have projected this from the 1966 October low.

The second instance of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle made a high just 13 days before the actual high in 2007. Hereafter, three 90-degree increments aligned with the end of 2021, early 2022 (within a few degrees). The last 90-degree increment completes 3 times the Jupiter-Saturn cycle around May 20th, 2026.

My bias for now is that this aligns with a low around this date; give it a 1-month window on either side. However, as mentioned earlier, the economy is resilient, and a sudden end to the Middle East crisis and Oil crisis may turn investors bullish again, which could result in a possible second top in the April-June window.

At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

I have updated last week’s post on US indices, Top-20 stocks, and Crude oil. The US Indices may be approaching an important inflection point based on the 60-year cycle and measured from the April 2025 low. Crude Oil has hit new highs, and may be folding back into a potential high by Easter, when Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle will be close to 180 degrees from the highs in June 2014. Almost all of the Top-20 stocks remain in overbought territory from a fundamental or technical perspective.

Crude Oil

As tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain unable to leave this area, this might cause crude oil prices to rise further to $100 per barrel or higher, reaching new highs in the coming weeks.

Based on OPIS (Oil Price Information Service) and EIA data1 as of early 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, with roughly 20–30% of global seaborne oil trade passing through it. (Source: Strait of Hormuz Factsheet)

The blockage of cargo ships or intense fighting has disrupted the supply chain, leading ships to take longer routes to the area and preventing oil-producing countries in the region from exporting their products.

What do the cycles reveal? I have been watching the crude oil chart for several years, and it seems likely that crude oil will spike back to the levels seen in 2014, when it was around $100 to $110 a barrel.

The Jupiter-Saturn cycle from a heliocentric view peaked about 12 years ago and is expected to return to the same point between February and May 2026, on an inversion of this cycle, as shown in the chart below. I expect Crude Oil to return at least to higher highs between now and May 2026. Considering the foldback, high prices may remain until early next year.

The Mars-Saturn conjunction on April 19, 2026, may be a moment when we see a change in trend again.

Measured with Saturn timing lines from past highs or lows, there is resistance at $102-$112-$125, so if this conflict continues and disrupts the energy markets, I can see these price levels reached in the next few weeks and months. This will certainly affect the price of gasoline at the pump we pay for as well.

US Indices

Crude oil and natural gas drive the global economy. These commodities are vital for major airlines and shipping companies like Maersk and Frontline (FRO), and to energy stocks already soaring toward a 12-year high. Maersk already stopped shipping to/from the Strait of Hormuz last week.

With US indices continuing to decline from all-time highs, a continuation and intensification of the conflict with Iran could further increase the risk that the stock market may decline more than anticipated based on past cycles. So, always seek confirmation if a cycle might have turned.

So, let’s examine the main US indices and some relevant cycles that might be active, starting with the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA).

NYSE Composite (NYA)

The NYSE Composite reached a similar high exactly 60 years ago but has not yet followed this cycle with a decline. It seems more likely that the stock market will follow the 22-year cycle in a more phased decline until mid-August this year, or earlier, by the end of June, 15 degrees of Saturn Helio from the April 7th, 2025, low.

An end-of-June-early July 2026 low may align with 3 Venus-Uranus 180-degree Helio moves from the April 2025 low. The next inflection point on this cycle is March 13th, 2026. We may see a rebound here correlating with the 60-year cycle.

Note: the 22-year cycle is interesting as the USA was active in a conflict with Iraq, which is in the same region. This is why I have been following this cycle, earlier identified by George Lindsay in his ‘Aid To Timing’-thesis.

DJIA

A similar story can be mentioned for the DJIA. Note how the DJIA squared out on the high of early February already on a Saturn 1x2 timing line, on the same date as 60-years ago, and how the synodic cycle of Venus-Uranus Helio has unfolded so far (give or take a few days).

As mentioned last week, “I honestly don’t know if the DJIA will continue to follow the 60-year cycle or the 22-year cycle shown on the chart. I have no crystal ball. The themes of the past (such as tariffs, the Vietnam War 60 years ago, and the Iraq War 22 years ago) still apply, but the current situation may differ slightly. We’ll have to see how the current conflict develops.”

S&P 500

I prepared a similar chart for the S&P 500 using the Saturn timing lines from past highs and lows and added the Venus-Uranus synodic cycle. The S&P 500 seems to be declining into a low by mid-March 2026 on a first leg downwards, perhaps following the 60- or 22-year cycle. Roughly, they follow a similar direction for some time.

My bias for this year is the repeat of the 22-year cycle, but a 60-year cycle is a larger cycle and may become more dominant. The economy is resilient, and if the current actions in Iran end as favorably as 22 years ago, we may see the S&P 500 (and the other US Indices) bounce off the lower Saturn timing lines. Price levels may vary by index.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq was not around 60-years ago, so I plotted only the 22-year cycle on the chart below. I have added a Saturn-Planetary Fan from the recent high in January that might give an idea of where the index may be heading if the downtrend continues.

Certainly, the same 60-year cycle will apply, but we do not know how this cycle might have behaved 60-years ago.

I have added the synodic cycle of Venus-Uranus Helio to the chart, projected from the April 2025 low, and it is showing nice inflection points within a few days.

When panic takes hold of investors, I can imagine the Nasdaq declining to the mid-channel timing line (dashed), or even lower, with similar volatility as the other US indices, to the Saturn 1x4 timing line. Even if the index ends up as low as around 20k, the overall bullish long-term trend remains intact.

Multiple Cycles

When considering other cycles that may be at work, I posted the DJIA chart (updated) below in previous posts. Compared to previous posts, I have removed a few cycles that may have become less relevant.

Note: You can see that the forecast does not imply a price forecast, as it is indexed to past cycles, so Time is more important than Price on this chart.

You can see on this chart that other cycles share one common factor: a low is expected in the third quarter of 2026, but their downward paths may begin earlier or later this year. So, be careful about concluding that a downward trend has already started based only on the 60- or 22-year cycle.

Top-20 US Stocks

From a Top-20 US Stock perspective, the majority of the stocks that drive the US Indices seem to be fundamentally or technically overbought, which adds to my hypothesis that there is enough reason to believe the US Indices could seek lower lows.

Some stocks, like MSFT and Oracle. show a Slow Stochastic (25,3,3) smaller than 20 on a weekly scale, which could signal they may have found an intermediate bottom for now. But such a signal should always be confirmed with other indicators.

Based on sound fundamental or technical criteria, I would like to see lower Price-Earnings Ratios (PE), Price-Book (PB), or Price-Sales (P/S) ratios. For a rebound, I would prefer the weekly slow Stochastic indicator (last column) to be below 20 and preferably forming a higher low before considering taking any additional positions in these stocks.

Conclusion

The forecast on the US Indices and crude oil has recently followed the main cycles identified in the previous post.

On the US indices, a first leg of the 60-year cycle downwards may continue into mid-March, which might correlate with the Venus-Uranus Synodic cycle. As most Top-20 stocks on a weekly time frame are not yet in overbought territory from a technical analysis point of view, this might indicate we may not have found a low yet.

For Crude Oil, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Crude Oil may continue to rise to the resistance levels equivalent to the Saturn timing lines running from 2014.

At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

This is my current bias on crude oil and across the US stocks and indices. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

It is likely not a coincidence that the US government targeted another oil-producing country following its intervention in Venezuela. While the threat of an atomic bomb and supporting the Iranian people in their fight against tyranny may seem like valid concerns, I don’t believe that is the primary motive behind this action.

Upon reflection, it seems that the US’s interest in bringing Iran under its influence is more focused on securing crude oil and natural gas supplies, especially since 80% of these Iranian exports currently go to China. What will be the effect on crude oil and the stock market in the days and weeks ahead?

Crude Oil

As Iran is currently attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, this could cause crude oil prices to reach $100 per barrel in the coming weeks. Based on OPIS (Oil Price Information Service) and EIA data1 as of early 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, with roughly 20–30% of global seaborne oil trade passing through it. (Source: Strait of Hormuz Factsheet)

Any blockage of cargo ships or intense fighting might disrupt the supply chain, leading ships to take longer routes or preventing oil-producing countries in the region from exporting their products.

Currently, OPEC’s eight member countries plan to meet this Sunday to discuss increasing oil output to lessen supply chain disruptions in the energy market.

What do the cycles reveal? I have been watching the crude oil chart for several years, and it seems likely that crude oil will spike back to the levels seen in 2014, when it was around $100 to $110 a barrel.

The Jupiter-Saturn cycle from a heliocentric view peaked about 12 years ago and is expected to return to the same point between February and May 2026, on an inversion of this cycle, as shown in the chart below. I expect Crude Oil to return to higher highs between now and May 2026.

The Mars-Saturn conjunction on April 19, 2026, may be a moment when we see a change in trend again. Measured with Saturn timing lines from past highs or lows, there is resistance at $86-$93-$100-$110-$119, so if this conflict continues and disrupts the energy markets, I can see these price levels reached in the next few weeks and months. This will certainly affect the price of gasoline at the pump we pay for as well.

Stock Market Impact

Crude oil and natural gas drive the global economy. These commodities are vital for major airlines and shipping companies like Maersk and Frontline (FRO), and to energy stocks already soaring toward a 12-year high. How this will impact the overall stock market and indices remains uncertain, as the futures market won’t open until late Sunday (US time).

With US indices already dropping from all-time highs, an intensified conflict with Iran could further increase the risk that the stock market can maintain these high levels.

So, let’s examine the main US indices and some relevant cycles that might be active, starting with the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA).

NYSE Composite (NYA)

The NYSE Composite reached a similar high exactly 60 years ago but has not yet followed this cycle with a decline. It seems more likely that the stock market will follow the 22-year cycle in a more phased decline until mid-August this year, or earlier, by the end of June, 15 degrees of Saturn Helio from the April 7th, 2025, low.

Note: the 22-year cycle is interesting as the USA was active in a conflict with Iraq, which is in the same region. This is why I have been following this cycle, earlier identified by George Lindsay in his ‘Aid To Timing’-thesis.

DJIA

A similar story can be mentioned for the DJIA. Note how the DJIA squared out on the high of early February already on a Saturn 1x2 timing line, on the same date as 60-years ago.

I honestly don’t know if the DJIA will follow the 60-year cycle or the 22-year cycle shown on the chart. I have no crystal ball. The themes of the past (such as tariffs, the Vietnam War 60 years ago, and the Iraq War 22 years ago) still apply, but the current situation may differ slightly. We’ll have to see how the current conflict develops.

There are other cycles as well that still point to highs around mid-2026, which I will show at the end of this post.

S&P 500

I prepared a similar chart for the S&P 500 using the Saturn timing lines from past highs and lows. The S&P 500 seems to be declining into a low by mid-March 2026 on a first leg downwards, perhaps following the 60- or 22-year cycle. Roughly, they follow a similar direction for some time.

My bias for this year is the repeat of the 22-year cycle. The economy is resilient, and if the current actions in Iran end as favorably as 22 years ago, we may see the S&P 500 (and the other US Indices) bounce off the lower Saturn timing lines. Price levels may vary by index.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq was not around 60-years ago, so I plotted only the 22-year cycle on the chart below. I have added a Saturn-Planetary Fan from the recent high in January that might give an idea of where the index may be heading if the downtrend continues.

When panic takes hold of investors, I can imagine the Nasdaq declining to the mid-channel timing line (dashed), or even lower, with similar volatility as the other US indices, to the Saturn 1x4 timing line. Even if the index ends up as low as around 20k, the overall bullish long-term trend remains intact.

Multiple Cycles

When considering other cycles that may be at work, I posted the DJIA chart (updated) below in previous posts.

You can see on this chart that other cycles share one common factor: a low is expected in the third quarter of 2026, but their downward paths may begin earlier or later this year. So, be careful about concluding that a downward trend has already started based only on the 60- or 22-year cycle. It may even take until May-June 2026 to complete the topping process.

Top-20 US Stocks

From a Top-20 US Stock perspective the majority of the stocks that drives the US Indices most seem to be fundamentally or technically overbought which adds to the my hypothesis there is enough reason to believe the US Indices could seek lower lows.

Based on sound fundamental or technical criteria, I would like to see lower Price-Earnings Ratios (PE), Price-Book (PB), or Price-Sales (P/S) ratios. For a rebound, I would prefer the weekly slow Stochastic indicator (last column) to be below 20 and preferably forming a higher low before considering taking any additional positions in these stocks.

Conclusion

My outlook in this post suggests we may see significant volatility in both oil markets and equities in the weeks and months ahead. As mentioned before, I have no crystal ball, and it is hard to forecast how the financial markets will react to the attack on Iran.

On crude oil, I expect quite a bit of volatility and a return to the $100-a-barrel price level, or even higher, if the conflict continues. OPEC might try to intervene by dumping more crude oil into the market to maintain reasonable price levels.

How the futures will react to the current USA mission remains to be seen overnight. With a successful US mission, the markets may respond cautiously. If panic grips investors when the Asian markets open on Monday, late Sunday night (US time) due to supply chain disruptions, we could see significant volatility across global indices.

At times like this, I stay out of the markets and will see what happens. When volatility subsides, we may see some good opportunities to take new positions.

This is my current bias on crude oil and across the US indices. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Last week, the stock market experienced several short-term panics, but it continued even after the third Hindenburg Omen occurred on 5 February. This may indicate trouble ahead, and the sudden decline in the DJ Transport Index a week later (due to fears about artificial intelligence job losses) often suggests that fewer goods are being transported and that the economy might be slowing down.

You can read about the Hindenburg Omen here: Ominous ‘Hindenburg Omen’ spotted in U.S. stock market.

This may be a first warning, and as the DJ Transportation index has ‘panicked’ around the 60-year cycle high on the same date as the previous cycle in 1966, it is good to be careful.

The 60-year cycle is known to contract and expand from time to time due to retrograde movements of various planets by up to 8 months. We need to see what will happen in the next few weeks. The approximately 30-year Saturn cycle may invert around June 2026, giving the index some room to move higher until the end of June 2026. This is then a Fibonacci 55 months from the November 2021 high.

In this post, I will analyze the latest report on the DJIA and the top 5 stocks by market capitalization. I will demonstrate, using various charts, how to identify inflection points at which the market might turn using Saturn timing lines.

DJIA

Last time I wrote: “The economy and the stock market are showing strong resilience. I can’t see the US administration allowing the stock market to drop to a July 4th low during a 250-year celebration of the USA’s Independence. Therefore, I am considering an alternative scenario”. I have updated the chart from the last post below:

Long-term cycles we studied earlier typically deviate up to eight months. So, the stock market may trade higher into July 4th, 2026. I projected the 2021/2022 fractal approximately 4.5 years ago for reference.

Even if the stock market experiences a 20% decline (red) from its recent all-time highs, it may still maintain the long-term trend. The 10% drop (green) may likely be the first phase of a major decline.

Multiple cycle scenarios

This is just one of the possible scenarios. In the chart below, you will find 5 scenarios that still have a high correlation with today’s market. The 60-, 45-, 22-, 19.86-, and 4-year cycles are plotted on the DJIA chart.

Note that the plotted cycles are overlaid and do not imply a similar decline as suggested on the chart. Time is more important than price.

As shown in the chart above, the 60-year cycle reached a peak exactly 60 years ago. It is too early to conclude that the year’s expected high has been set. The almost 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle, which is 1/3 of the 60-year cycle, and the 45-year cycle, which is a harmonic of the 90-year cycle, all made a high later in the year.

An interesting note about the 60-year cycle is that 60 years ago, there was also a midterm election. The Democrats were in power that year but lost the midterm elections to the Republicans. This year, the Polymarket already shows it might be inverse again.

18-month cycle

In the chart below, I have plotted the 18-month cycle alongside the 60-year cycle. This is an important cycle identified by Jim Hurst.

The Venus Square Pluto cycle plotted in the chart above is notable, as it may align with recent highs and lows in the 18-month cycle.

The above scenario aligns with a potential high around May-June 2026, based on the 18-month cycle, and a low in October 2026, with the 60-year and 4-year cycles expected to make lows, alongside multiple other cycles (mentioned earlier).

Solar and lunar eclipse

In the next few weeks, we are approaching solar (02/17/2026) and lunar (3/3/2026) eclipses. There is often considerable volatility around these dates. Monitor the market for turning points shortly before and after a solar eclipse.

In the chart above, I also plotted Mars at 30 degrees from the March Lunar eclipse onward. Often, you will see great inflection points on the 30-degree increments of Mars.

Summary DJIA

My bias is that it may take some time for the market to reach a low. Many cycles could trigger a decline. We may already have set the high on February 11th, 2026, just as 60-years ago. However, other cycles still indicate a potential mid-year high. A high may be set by as early as today or as late as July 2026.

Let’s now have a look at how the magnificent 5 are doing.

The Magnificent 5

Following the magnificent 5 by market capitalization: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN, one can clearly see that the stock market remained resilient despite the declines in these stocks. It shows that market makers, while trading down potentially overbought stocks, are balancing the indices by buying other stocks to maintain recent highs. This may continue for some time until the music stops, and the buying frenzy shifts into more widespread selling across equities.

In the charts below, I have used Saturn timing lines plotted from key highs and lows to indicate potential inflection points. When price and time align (an equal move in price and time), a change in trend (or inversely) may occur. Drawing similar lines from the recent crest may indicate where future inflection points can be expected on the crossroads of other timing lines.

In all charts, I have added a fair value for each stock based on the Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio and the 12-month trailing diluted Earnings per Share (EPS), which may indicate the current fair value. This does not include the expected EPS growth for 2026. There are other valuation methods, such as the Discounted Cash Flow methodology, that may give higher forecasts. I find the PE fair value often a more prudent methodology.

The upcoming earnings date is also marked in pink on each chart.

NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation

As shown in the chart below, on a 4x1 Saturn timing line, Price and Time were aligned on Nov 3rd, 2025, because four times 45.2 degrees (45.215, unrounded) corresponds to a price increase of 180.86. Hereafter, a decline set in.

NVDA may not have run its course yet and may surge to a second peak by the end of February 2026, driven by strong earnings and prospects.

Perhaps, we may see a Head-and-Shoulders pattern emerging, which may cause a further decline to the lower 4x1 Saturn timing line. Note the gap around $120, which is often filled once the decline sets in.

AAPL - Apple Inc.

AAPL may have made a crest by February 6th, 2026, after a 49-degree move of Saturn since the high in January 2022, on a 2x1 Saturn timing line.

The number 49 is a critical angle at which inflection points are often observed, whether in days, weeks, months, or years.

There appears to be an 18-month cycle in AAPL, which could indicate a 4-year low and an 18th low around October 2026. A price target of $214 may align with a 45-degree move in Saturn from the October 2022 lows on a 2x1 timing line. Although the current fair value is much higher, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this price level could be reached during a panic.

GOOGL - Alphabet Inc.

For GOOGL, a price and time square out occurred on February 6th, 2026, on a 4x1 Saturn timing line.

I am looking for a potential low around July-August 2026, which may be only a first decline towards the lower 4x1 Saturn timing line drawn from the October 2022 low. A rebound may occur, with a potential second trough in October 2026.

MSFT - Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft made a double top between the end of July and October 2025, on a 4x1 Saturn timing line. The Saturn 1x1 timing line from the November 2021 high seems to give support for now.

MSFT has fallen along the mirror-image foldback scenario and is approaching fair value based on the 12-month trailing earnings per share and the expected forward Price-to-Earnings ratio. If the foldback continues, this may indicate that a Head-and-Shoulders pattern is emerging.

Using calendar-day timing lines, the chart appears slightly different.

In the chart above, I used a calendar-day timing line based on a price of $0.1 per calendar day. A March low around $353 may align with the lower calendar-day timing line drawn from the lows in March 2020 and October 2022.

AMZN - Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon may found its Price and Time alignment on November 3rd, 2025, and a second top on February 6th, 2026, right on a 1x1 Saturn timing line.

I expect Amazon to decline to at least the halfway point, or close to its fair value, in the $170- $175 range by October 2026. In a panic, I wouldn’t rule out Amazon dropping further into the lower 1x1 Saturn timing line, around $130, by February 2027.

Conclusion

In this post, I evaluated the DJ Transportation and DJ Industrial Averages across the Top 5 stocks by market capitalization. Both indices reached a high near the 60-year cycle peak, suggesting the market may be nearing a top.

It may still be too early to conclude that a top has been reached in this bull market. There is always some lost motion in any system, which may cause the NYSE “machinery” to continue moving for a while. Certain major cycles might be extended due to retrograde movements of various planets during the past cycle, and some cycles may still be ongoing.

Most top-5 stocks, however, have recently reached their highs, and some may be close to a short-term rebound, potentially fueling the stock market again. There is no overall clear direction yet.

For me, it is clear that October 2026 marks a point where multiple cycles- such as the 60-, 45-, 22-, 19,86-, 4-year, and 18-month cycles- align toward a probable cycle low. Various timing lines on the charts discussed may indicate at which price level this cycle low could occur.

This is my current bias across different indices and stocks. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. I expect some significant volatility ahead.

In case you haven’t noticed, every week I post various charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Since the beginning of the year, significant events have impacted financial markets. I believe the stock market can maintain its recent highs for now, similar to what we saw in late 2021. Last Friday, both gold and silver experienced a sudden decline following the nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman. While market fundamentals are important, the end of a cycle often plays a more crucial role.

In this post, I will evaluate developments across various markets, focusing on the cycles and patterns we observe. This will include an update on: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gold and silver, US Dollar and Euro, Bitcoin, various ETFs, and some individual stocks that are currently at a six-year low.

DJIA

The economy and the stock market are showing strong resilience. I can’t see the US administration allowing the stock market to drop to a July 4th low during a 250-year celebration of the USA. Therefore, I am considering an alternative scenario.

Long-term cycles we studied earlier typically last up to eight months. So, it is possible that the stock market may trade higher into July 4th, 2026. I projected the 2021/2022 fractal into the future approximately 4.5 years ago as a reference.

Even if the stock market experiences a 20% decline (red) from its recent all-time highs, it may still maintain the long-term trend. The 10% drop (green) may likely be the first phase of a major decline.

Gold/Silver

Yesterday, the Gold and Silver Futures declined sharply, apparently due to the nomination of theanticipated new Federal Reserve chairman. While fundamentals can influence the direction of financial markets, in my opinion, the end of a cycle is often the main cause.

Gold Futures

The Gold chart below shows the market turned 3 cycles of 1188.7 in Price at a 3x1 timing line after 1188.7 calendar days from the start in November 2022. Note that 1188 days is equal to 169 weeks, which is equal to the square of 13. Natural squares in time often mark moments when a change in trend may occur.

I expect this to be a temporary drawdown, as demand and supply imbalances may favor higher highs in the future. We may see more like a range-bound move to occur between February and May 2026, like in similar periods in the past, looking at the Mars-Uranus Helio cycle.

Silver Futures

A similar pattern may hold for Silver Futures. Price and Time aligned on January 30th, 2026.

You can see that Silver Futures squared the low of $29.8 in 298 days (note the decimal shift) on a 4x1 timing line. Price and Time are aligned on a 4 x 74.5-day cycle. Also, note the cycle drawn from last Friday’s High to low; it ended exactly at the midpoint of the cycle.

Now Silver found support at $74 on a 2x1 timing line. This cycle may end in mid-April 2026 between $57 and $86, but is more likely to fall between $74 and $86, remaining within the green-shaded area. A move above $87 may be bullish.

USD Index/Eurospot

Following the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair, the disparity between the USD Index (DXY) and the Euro spot Index reached a possible high, similar to what occurred 8 years ago, when the disparity between the Dollar and the Euro was at its maximum.

Eight years ago, during the grey-shaded period of January to March 2018, the greatest disparity occurred. This might correspond with Venus cycles, as Venus returns to the same degree on the same day every eight years.

Some Analysts still expect the US Dollar index to decline further, which will advance the Euro; hence, the 4-year cycle may result in a greater disparity by July-September 2026. This then aligns the September 2022 maximum disparity in the DXY and EUspot on a 4-year cycle.

Bitcoin

The 4-year cycle low in Bitcoin is expected around June to October 2026. Last time this cycle in November 2022, it turned around the Mars conjunct Uranus Helio aspect (at the same degree). I have circled these aspects in red.

Moreover, you can see in the above chart that if the foldback continues as plotted, turning on the Mars trine Uranus aspect when Mars is at a 120-degree separation from Uranus (January 27th, 2026), a Head and Shoulders Pattern may emerge. This could bring Bitcoin back to the $54,000 price level, anywhere between June and October 2026.

Bitcoin may have found support near the mid-channel trendline. A break below this line may complete the potential head-and-shoulders pattern to a 4-year low in June-October 2026.

ETF’s

Evaluating various Exchange-Traded Funds, I can still see room for higher highs in some of these funds that may carry the stock market into mid-2026.

SOXX - iShares Semiconductor

For the semiconductors, I am looking at a potential high in April 2026, 90 weeks after the previous high in July 2024 and 1 year after the low in April 2025.

Currently, the SOXX faces resistance at the 150% price level drawn from the October 2022 low to the July 2024 high. There are numerous resistance levels near a potential top, based on past highs or lows (aligning with the 1x1 timing line). At any of these levels, the market could reverse.

There is never a guarantee that any index, stock, or ETF will continue to perform in the same way over time as it has in the past. Anomalies can happen.

The 10% trailing stoploss (green) and the 20% trailing stoploss (red), drawn from the most recent highest high, may serve as useful indicators of where Banksters might have placed their stoplosses. This can vary depending on each trader’s risk-reward appetite and personal circumstances. No advice.

XBI - SPDR S&P Biotech

To date, the XBI Biotech ETF has tracked the mirror-image foldback (dotted blue) shown in the chart below. The foldback may have occurred around the Venus-Pluto heliocentric cycle and could resume when it crosses above the $135 level.

XLB - SPDR Materials Select Sector

The XLB - SPDR Materials Select Sector Index may be at the top of the trading channel formed by 1x4 timing lines. This coincides with an AB=CD pattern. After an AB=CD pattern, we have often observed a correction.

In the last few instances when this ETF reached a high while Mars was at the same degree as Pluto, corrections have set in. If the past is indicative of the future, we may see a sideways move until May-August 2026.

XLP - SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector

For a while, it looked like XLP, the SPDR Consumer Staples Select ETF, was heading toward a low around May 2026. Recently, it broke out of the downward channel and is now moving toward a high of $88 by the end of May 2026.

The high at the end of May 2025 may align with Venus at 144 degrees. In the past, I have often observed a change in trend when Venus enters this aspect.

Six-year Cycle lows

In the last few weeks, I have seen some interesting stocks making six-year lows. After two or three years of decline, you may often observe rebounds or even complete foldback scenarios to previous highs.

UPS - United Parcel Service

Recently, UPS reached a 6-year low, which has been in decline since December 2022.

The rebound to the 2020 COVID low likely aligns with the Mars-Neptune cycle. I highlighted the Mars-Pluto aspects where trend changes happened. We might see a similar pattern if UPS can break above the $106 price level. I have plotted a potential fold-back scenario (dotted blue) on the chart.

DOW - Dow Chemicals Inc.

A similar situation may be happening with Dow Chemicals Inc. Dow Inc recently hit a 6-year low and appears to have bottomed. If the speculative fold-back (blue dotted) continues, the stock could return to its previous high levels.

There is a well-known 18-month cycle in the stock market. UPS seems to be changing trends on a 270-degree move of Mars-Neptune Helio. If the recent trend continues above the $29 to $30 price level, we may see the stock rebound into June-July 2026.

Conclusion

In this post, I have analyzed the DJIA in light of a possible repeat of the 2021/2022 fractal. Given the resilience of the U.S. economy and the broader stock market, I do not anticipate the stock market plunging into the 250-year celebration around July 4th, 2026.

Additionally, evaluating ETFs such as XBI and XLP, as well as individual stocks, I can see that there is still room in some sectors to rebound to higher price levels. This might have caused the stock market to remain at higher price levels, as seen at the end of 2021.

The US Dollar Index and the Euro may have reached a maximum disparity on an 8-year Venus cycle. A change may have occurred, although it could be only a temporary pause in a 4-year uptrend towards July-September 2026.

Bitcoin may have found support near the mid-channel trendline. A break below this line may complete the potential head-and-shoulders pattern to a 4-year low in June-October 2026.

This is my current bias across various financial markets. Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can change so be careful out there. I expect quite some volatility ahead of us.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted various charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

From January 2 to January 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed 2.6% higher than its starting point. Historically, this trend in the first 5 trading days has occurred 29 times in the DJIA’s 140-year history, with 20 of those years resulting in an annual rise. This gives a success rate of 69%. Will 2026 defy the odds?

On average, prices increase in 65% of the analyzed years (91 out of 140). While this year’s 69% success rate is slightly above the historical average, the difference is not statistically significant. This 4-point advantage looks promising, but could easily be random noise due to the small sample size.

The state of the U.S. economy

From an economic perspective, the US economy remains resilient.

The unemployment rate is still in its mid-4’s - around 4.4–4.5%, but analysts see this not as worsening but consistent with still a relatively tight job market. Forecasts from major banks still see real GDP growth between 2.2–2.5% in 2026. Core Inflation (without energy and food) seems to remain under control at 2.6%.

Last year, the economy managed to withstand most of the 2025 tariff increases imposed by the current US administration. The burden was largely absorbed by companies, with only a portion passed on to consumers.

Moving forward, I am unsure whether US companies will continue to absorb these higher costs in 2026 or fully pass them on to consumers.

With fiscal stimuli set to take effect, consumers may still be able to bear the burden without significantly cutting back on spending. With the big, beautiful bill coming into effect, the government is also spending trillions of US dollars to boost the economy even further. Therefore, from this perspective, 2026 looks very promising.

The overall Shiller S&P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio, currently around 38, is still below the year 2000 average of around 44.

Most US bank forecasts have included this and other economic indicators in their projections. As shown in the overview below (HT: ), they remain optimistic.

However, given historical cycles, I am not very convinced the US stock market will continue to rise this year.

The Historical Cycles View

Let’s look into the main long-term cycles that may define the trend:

• The 60-year cycle (3x the Jupiter-Saturn cycle)

• The 22-year solar cycle

• The 19.86-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle (1/3 of 60-year cycle)

• The McWhirter 18.6-year cycle of the North Node

• The “sixth-year itch” – midterm elections

In the chart below, I have plotted the 60-year, 22-year, 19.86 Jupiter-Saturn Cycle and the Saturn-Neptune cycle.

22-year solar cycle

The 22-year cycle is a solar cycle twice the 11-year sunspot cycle, which seems to have reached its peak in late 2025. A low number of sunspots is expected over the next 5 to 6 years and often aligns with recessions. Looking back a little more than 22-years (22.14 years or 8090 days), the 2004 to 2005 forecast in the above chart shows a decline into the end of the year.

McWhirter 18.6-year cycle

The McWhirter 18.6-year cycle of the Moon’s North Node (grey) seems to head in a similar direction to the 22-year and 60-year cycles, as seen in the chart below.

The Saturn and Neptune almost 36-year cycle has a conjunction on February 20th, 2026, just within 10 days after the 60-year expected high.

On average, the Jupiter-Saturn cycle has a wide range, up to the middle of May 2026, to turn over into a more bearish mode.

We are dealing with the probability that these cycles converge to a high. This could be anywhere between January and May 2026.

The US Midterm Congressional Elections

The US midterm congressional elections may not give a different perspective on the year 2026 forecast for the DJIA. In almost all midterm congressional elections, and particularly in the second midterm of a two-term presidency, it is an electoral nightmare for the governing party in the White House. This is called the “6th-year’s itch” Note: This is D. Trump’s second mid-term election, although not consecutive.

In 1966, 60 years ago, the midterm elections were a disaster for the Democrats in the White House, with a major sweep to the Republican Party. Something similar could happen this time, with the Democrats gaining back seats from the Republicans. Note: It will be an anomaly, as during the Bill Clinton era, Republicans will face limited losses.

I have added a 48-month, 5th Harmonic of the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle (black in the above chart). Hence, the 4-year cycle is pointing downwards for the full year as well.

Looking at shorter cycles like the 18-month cycle, which aligned with the April 7th, 2025, low, the 18-month cycle is expected to make a low around October 2026. More on the shorter-term cycles in my next post.

Important: the above cycle chart overlays do not imply price forecasts. Time is more important than price.

DJIA 2026 Forecast

My price target for the DJIA, if it continues to follow the 60-year cycle, may indicate a potential 22% decline by the end of 2026, as shown in the chart below.

So far in 2026, the DJIA followed the 60-year cycle forecast. Going forward, the inflection points could well deviate from the forecast, which is based on this cycle’s past behavior. From time to time, inversions can occur. This forecast will dynamically adjust on a day-by-day basis once more data becomes available. I will update this frequently.

The nominal 22-year cycle forecast, using the exact calendar days (8036 days), however, shows a milder 8.5% to 10% decline by the end of the year if the DJIA continues to follow this 2004-2005 anomaly.

Conclusion

From a fundamental point of view, the economy still looks very resilient, although the average Shiller PE for the S&P 500 is nearing the historic high set in 2000 during the dotcom bubble. With all the fiscal stimulus and increased government spending to boost the US economy, a downturn in the US Indices may be limited.

The major planetary cycles discussed show an overall decline for 2026. The nominal 60-year and 22-year time cycles discussed in the above analysis show a similar direction, but the 22-year cycle has a much smaller decline than the 60-year cycle based on its past cycles.

The 4-year midterm election cycle shows a decline as well. As mentioned before, we are dealing with the probability that these cycles converge to a high between January and May 2026, followed by a subsequent decline by the end of the year.

With major economic stimuli, the potential threat of new tariffs, and the recent international turmoil over Venezuela and Greenland, 2026 is already unlike any year in history.

Hence, the actual outcome may well differ from my forecasts. In any case, I expect the year 2026 to be volatile for the overall US stock market. I will continue to follow these cycles in the months to come. Stay tuned

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted some extra charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here.

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In this post, I will take a closer look at the forecasts made in the Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2025. By using the 60-year Gann Master cycle, I aimed to forecast how the DJIA and S&P 500 would perform. Now, it’s time to see how accurate those forecasts were and how they relate to what actually happened in the market. I’ll also discuss some of the patterns we've seen and what they might mean for the future. Let’s dive in and explore the outcomes from the past year.

My forecasting method, based on the 60-year Gann Master Cycle, uses the same patterns and volatility that occurred 60 years ago. It may sound absurd, or even impossible, that cycles and patterns repeat over such a long period, but it does to some extent.

As mentioned in my previous post, the sixty-year cycle is considered to be the most important cycle, as most of the planets that our weekdays are named after return to approximately the same position on the zodiac. Moreover:

So, let’s review what my forecast was exactly 1 year ago on December 20th, 2024.

As you can see, I made a forecast for the DJIA at around 49,000 and the S&P 500 at around 6,660 by the end of 2025.

We might be closer to the DJIA forecast than to the S&P 500, which is nearly 7% higher as of last Friday. An interesting fact is that the May-June crash of 1965, caused by unexpected tariffs on automobiles, in 2025 happened on a much larger scale just a few months earlier.

The above forecast for the whole year does not have a strong correlation due to the dip in March and April. The correlation improved to 80% when the forecast was offset from May 2025 to February 2025, as I already showed in a previous post.

The correlation improved after April, and premium subscribers to the previous paid forecast have seen that I maintained my projections based on a dynamically adjusted forecast, with confidence of 80% or more. Below is the latest dynamically adjusted forecast (red bold line).

In both 1965 and 2025, the markets panicked over a similar issue: tariffs.

This cycle doesn’t always follow the same pattern or volatility, and when inversions occur, it might be wise to look back 120 years (twice the 60-year cycle).

Similar story for the S&P 500. Below, you’ll find my static forecast from last year, made a full year ago.

The overall 2025 correlation of the S&P 500 is much higher than that of the DJIA, since the S&P 500 is currently more important (along with the Nasdaq) than the DJIA, which was the more significant index 60 years ago.

Other remarkable similarities with past years

Using a yearly spiral chart in last year’s publication, I discussed the USA 1776 and the NYSE 1792 yearly charts as shown below. You can click on the chart to expand it for better readability.

Based on the above analysis, I expected steel to become a prominent theme in 2025, as it was in 1952, when President Harry Truman attempted to nationalize all steel mills. The year 2025 mirrors 1952. On June 18, 2025, Nippon Steel completed its acquisition of U.S. Steel, with the U.S. government obtaining a golden share and significant control over the company. This is almost as if US Steel was nationalized. A similar pattern repeats.

The NYSE chart from 1792 indicates that 1943, when the U.S. relinquished its territorial rights in China, is opposite 2025. I wasn’t sure if trade tensions with China would recur, but they did return in 2025, and like in 1943, the tensions were eventually eased. Since 2025 aligns with the USA 1776 spiral chart along with 1980 and 2009, I expected the U.S. indices to hit a peak in 2025, unlike in these previous years.

Note: In my annual publication “Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook 2025”, I made many other forecasts, such as on Wheat, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, US 2Y Treasury Note, US 10Y Treasury Note, US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and World Indices. Some forecasts were good or partly good and/or still on track; others were really underestimated, such as Gold and Silver.

I will not publish a Fiorente2 Stock Market Outlook for 2026 as I have in previous years. However, when time permits, I will update my annual forecasts for these commodities and indices here on Substack and include a review of the 2025 forecast.

Conclusion

In today’s analysis, I have revisited my 2025 annual forecast on the US Indices. I have included my updated dynamic forecast for the DJIA and the S&P 500 through the end of the year. As in all my publications in the last few years, I showed in today’s post that the US Indices follow the 60-year cycle. Not always in the same pattern, likely due to the faster-moving planets (Venus or Mars) than the slower-moving planets (Jupiter, Saturn, or Uranus) that set the overall trend.

In addition, I showed that, by using the Gann Yearly Spiral chart concept and looking back at important years that create harmonic connections, one could find themes that recur or have the opposite effect. The year 2026 is going to be interesting again. I will publish my full Master Cycle forecast for 2026 for the US Indices, exclusively for all free subscribers, around the New Year.

If you would like a glimpse of what I expect for the first few months, you should review my previous post (click on the link). In this forecast, the medium-term cycles within the pink composite cycle on the DJIA also confirm the potential for a more range-bound move into early February 2026.

I am still keeping an eye on the 18.6-year cycle, which may not drag the US Indices into a crest in April/May 2025. Whether the 18.6-year cycles come in at the expected time, as mentioned in my earlier post, remains to be seen. This cycle can also come in early, aligned with the 60-year cycle.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted some extra charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here.

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2025 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Since the early October 2025 high, we have seen considerable volatility in the US indices, but so far they have shown resilience and are trading within a range similar to that observed four years ago at the end of 2021. We know what happened afterwards.

In my last update on the US Indices I discussed the various long-term cycles in the US Indices and I mentioned that it was possible to see a high in the stock market by February 1966, based on the 60 and 120-year cycles, but that cycle of the 18.6 year cycle of the Moon’s North Node could drag the US Indices into a high by mid-April to early May 2026.

The sixty-year cycle is an important cycle that is considered to be the most important cycle, as most of the planets which our weekdays are named after return to approximately the same position on the zodiac. Moreover:

So, let’s review where we are now on the 60-year cycle. Are we close to a square out in price and time on the 60-year cycle?

The 60-year Cycle (NYSE/DJIA)

I have updated two charts, which I showed earlier to my premium subscribers in the past, on the NYSE Composite Index and the DJIA

NYSE Composite Index

In the chart below, I have plotted a box around the quarterly chart of the 60-year chart of the NYSE Composite Index, which consists of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

You can clearly see on the 1x1 line, which moves $1 per calendar day, that the NYSE Composite Index is close to a square out in Price and Time. The NYSE Composite Index started trading on January 3rd, 1966, almost 60 years (or 21,915 days) ago.

We may see the Index continue into early January 2026, towards the 21,915 price level, which would then be a perfect square in time.

However, reviewing the cycles during which the NYSE declined after its February 9th, 1966, high, the medium-term Venus/Mars-Pluto cycles may drive the market higher into early February 2026 as well. See my note in smaller caps and blue on the chart.

DJIA - 60-year cycle

In the chart below, I have plotted three scenarios in which the 60-year cycle could unfold from our current position. The blue line represents the 60-year analog.

Although the 60-year cycle in blue has only a 40% correlation, the adjusted cycles, aligned with todays today’s trend and offset by 82/104 calendar days, show a remarkable 80% or more fit with today’s market.

Note that in May 1966, the USA introduced new tariffs on imported cars, and in 2025, the current US Administration introduced similar tariffs, 82 days earlier. Offsetting the 60-year cycle high in February 1966 towards the end of October also fits well. A similar planetary pattern (involving some other cycles) was seen in the sky. Hence, I was not surprised the DJIA took a dive into November, see my footnote1

As mentioned last time, “these cycle variations could signal a higher chance of a more range-bound move, similar to what we observed 4 years ago during the final phase of the trend before the early 2022 high. With Mercury, Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus in retrograde over the coming months, a range-bound movement might become more apparent.”

To illustrate the potential of a range-bound move, I will show you my new planetary model, which I tested with Neural Network software over the last 12 months. I plotted the Astronomy cycles, as a composite model in pink (Astro NN Model), on the above chart, and it continues to show a significant correlation (91.6%) with the DJIA path so far.

The probabilities of this model, based on past cycle performance, favor a rangebound move unto early February 2026. The range-bound move is most likely due to medium-term cycles.

The new Astro Model not only captures longer-term cycles but also includes medium-term cycles within the longer-term trend. It aligns with the 60-year cycle so far. I have printed these cycles in a note on the chart. You can click the chart to enlarge it.

Note: This does not mean the DJIA could not decline earlier or later, as cycles can contract, extend, or invert. We are dealing with probabilities, not certainties. Past stock market behavior does not always repeat with the same volatility at the same time.

Although I mentioned earlier that the 18.6-year cycle is expected to make its high by mid-April 2026 to early May 2026, it may come in earlier this time.

Conclusion

In today’s analysis, I have revisited the 60-year cycle on the NYSE Composite Index and the DJIA. The probabilities of the various 60-year cycles and the planetary composite model (pink) on the DJIA favor a potential topping phase into January to early February 2026. Similar charts could be made for the Nasdaq or the S&P 500, with slight variations in timing.

The medium-term cycles within the pink composite cycle on the DJIA also confirm the potential for a more range-bound move into early February 2026.

Whether the 18.6-year cycles come in at the expected time, as mentioned in my earlier post, is to be seen. This cycle can come in early as well, aligned with the 60-year cycle.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

In case you haven’t noticed, I recently posted some extra charts in the Substack notes. You can find them all here.

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2025 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.