In my “Squaring the Cube” (#315) and “Has the high been set yet?” (#316) articles, I mentioned the possibility of a crest around the July to early August 6th, 2026 window. Indeed, the DJIA made a high close to 60 points above my calculated price target of $54,289, based on the square of 233, with both price and time harmonics (10x233 calendar days) from the March 2020 low. Within a couple of days, it was both a close hit in price and time. However, there is no confirmation yet that a high has been set.

Based on the overbalance line (#317) and the largest pullback against the trend since the end of March 2026, the uptrend may still be intact above $52,993, which is 1,751.33 points below the recent high in August. I have not abandoned the possibility of a DJIA crest by early August, but the trend has not been broken, and the SPX made a new high as well, which brings me back to my mid-term analysis.

Mid-term analysis update

In the article “The dip that may only be a ripple” (#314), I mentioned the possibility of the 1898 analog becoming the more dominant analog once the $52,500 price level was broken above.

Re-measured through August 14, the 1898 correlation is r = 0.885; for 1890, r = 0.574; and for 1978, r = 0.768, with the top-3 composite at r = 0.87. (Here r is the correlation, how closely each old year’s pattern tracks 2026: 1.0 is a perfect match, 0 is none.) 1898 and 1978 improved since late June, while 1890 eased from r = 0.683 to r = 0.574.

In the same #314 article, I mentioned:

Also, the larger cycles mentioned in my “The First Checkpoint” (#309) Gann cycle-cluster article were minimal in July and August. They were heaviest in September, so the weight in the larger cycles may still be ahead of us.

Using the same analog years, my index of cyclical variation (helio), a line that tracks planetary pairs through their separating (more positive) and closing (more negative) phases, agrees with that analysis.

I really do not know whether the market will continue to follow the composite of these past mid-term years, but in all those years, a dip set in around October and, in some years, it continued through year-end.

As cycles can contract and extend, we need to consider the possibility of an inversion. So far, the market has inverted on a 60-year cycle (correlation of -0.60). So I would not stare blindly at the chart above. At some point, these analogs will cease to function. So, what is an alternative scenario to take into account when the uptrend continues?

The 32- and 45-week time cycle

In recent weeks, I have been following the 32- and 45-week cycles, which show an interesting correlation with Venus’s planetary cycle.

When you look at the recent chart of the DJIA, you can see that the market reacted to the April 7th low when Venus was around 212 degrees (heliocentric), and again in November 2025 and early July 2026. The turns are at 32-week intervals (approx. 225 days). The cycle of Venus: each time it made a 90-degree aspect to Pluto, the market moved.

Back on April 7th, 2025, the market declined during a Venus Rx (retrograde) period, as shown in green on the chart above. Often, the market reverses around these periods and there is an upcoming retrograde period in October through November 2026.

The interesting thing is that the 13-week, or approximately 90-day, period between the 32- and 45-week sequences, plotted on the chart as red solid vertical lines from the midpoint, tends to alternate in polarity relative to the last time. This may call for a higher high than I expected.

I have plotted a channel using Saturn's heliocentric motion at a price unit of $700 per degree from the highs and lows to extrapolate where a possible high may occur if the trend continues toward higher price levels. Drawing it is like laying a simple trendline across the important lows, then copying that same line onto the important highs, so the two run parallel as a channel.

A similar analysis can be done for the SPX. The only difference in the chart below is the channel I based it on: the heliocentric motion of Venus at a price unit of $2.618 per degree.

Note: 2.618 is a harmonic of the golden ratio (0.618), which is a ratio very close to the rotation of Venus around the Sun. (225/365.25)

Conclusion

In the past week, the DJIA stalled while the SPX made a new high. Perhaps this signals the high has not been set yet, or that the divergence is a condition to be cautious about. In neither index has a clear high been confirmed, as the overbalance points are both intact.

That leaves two paths open from here. The mid-term analogs still point to a retest or marginal higher high into early September and an autumn dip around October, my base case. In the alternative scenario, the 60-year cycle has inverted to an October high, and the 32- and 45-week Venus intervals may point to a higher high into the next Venus retrograde period, from early October to mid-November 2026.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

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Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Recently Olga Morales posted on X (formerly Twitter) a chart with planetary lines on which Bitcoin trades and pointed to a Gann quote, that bottoms become tops and tops become bottoms. I remember that line as it came straight from the Stock Market Course (1955) where a rally to an old bottom is a short sale “because bottoms become tops and tops become bottoms”. This is Gann’s support-and-resistance rule. You can plot planetary lines to plot these support-and-resistance lines, or calculate the most important lines using a hexagon.

Since we have hit a $60K floor several times, this is a good moment for an update on Bitcoin. I will use a hexagon grid as I can plot both price and time using the same method.

In a recent post (#315), I have introduced Gann’s theory around the hexagon or cube.1 In the post today on Bitcoin I will plot the hexagon corners in time and corresponding price levels, which may show that using a hexagon chart or grid can be a good tool in analyzing an equity like Bitcoin.

The Hexagon Grid

In the hexagon grid I overlaid on Bitcoin (see chart 1), I have calculated the hexagon corners in time using a start date of April 7th, 2025, which was a remarkable and important date in time in many financial markets. The past vertical lines are plotted in gray, 60 degrees apart. The future and yet to come dates are plotted in dotted blue vertical lines, and follow the same logic.

For price I have divided the hexagon calculation into equal parts of 90 degrees in price. Note that each 90 degree level on the Bitcoin chart, plotted from 1 onwards, has given good support and resistance levels so far. You can clearly see that when the price level increases, the steps between each following level widen.

Where price and time meet, these often become inflection points, where the trend can continue or revert. The 90 degree price level increments are important levels, as you know. In a building, a 90 degree angle is a hard angle to break.

Did Bitcoin find a potential floor

Recently Bitcoin has twice traveled a 360-degree price level from last year’s October top. The 60K price level has been touched three times so far.

In my recent post in June (#312), I expected Bitcoin to find support at a $54K price level, into a June-October time window. The August 1 Mars-Uranus date I flagged there has passed, with Bitcoin still near $62K, so my lower target is still open. Currently, Bitcoin is trading between the $60K and $66K price levels and neither of them has been broken. This sideways move can continue for some time, and when broken the next higher or lower price level may come into the picture.

The foldback pattern drawn at the end of July is my bias for now, but as written many times before, a foldback pattern may cease to function any further at some point in time.

You may recall what Gann wrote about support-and-resistance lines.

This works for bottoms as well. So, despite the foldback scenario, pointing at a more positive forecast for Bitcoin, I have not yet abandoned my June Bitcoin forecast to trade lower to the $54K level.

Conclusion

When Bitcoin falls through the $60K level from above, I expect BTCUSD may continue its down trend to a $53K-$54K price level, probably by early October 2026. On the other hand, a push through the $66K level may bring Bitcoin back toward $74K and the $81K-$82K zone, where the May 2026 high and the 270 degree hexagon level line up.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I have no crystal ball, and a hexagon grid only maps the ground. Always watch the chart in front of you. Be careful out there. No advice.

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Last week in $DJIA, Has the high been set yet? (#316) I put the cube window at July 29 to August 6 and said the year’s high is probably not in yet. On Friday the Dow closed 51,947.25, still chopping under the 52,500 line it broke on July 17.

In early trade today the Dow has pushed back above 52,500. I read the daily close, so a close back above 52,500 is what would put the 1898 path in front again.

This is a short one. The notes don’t reach every subscriber, so I’m putting the geometry in the mail.

$DJIA, the two hexagon corners

The hexagon is the cube seen head on: a six-sided figure, each side 60 degrees, 360 degrees for a full turn. Same solid as the cube in the #315 post, one face forward. On the two charts below, the dates spiral out from each low at the center, and the corner the count reaches next is the date to watch.

From the April 7, 2025 low at 36,611, one side on, the next corner lands August 1, 2026, 481 days out. Two corners of the same geometry, two days apart, both inside the July 29 to August 6 window.

Two corners fall on the window. From the October 13, 2022 low at 28,660, the bear-market bottom and the change in trend, a full turn of the hexagon lands the next corner on July 30, 2026, 1,386 days on.

Note: the same Venus-Jupiter grid I track under the cube marks these days in heliocentric degrees too, the layer I ran under the cube in my #315 post. Gann measured time in degrees as well as days, so the same days read on both scales.

So the hexagon is a third method, after the cube and the Fibonacci count, landing on July 30 and August 1, already inside the time window I mentioned in last week’s post (#316 ). It tightens the window I set, drawn a third way.

What a change of trend would show

Gann never leaned on one signal, so here is the set I’m watching, from the softest reading to the firmest.

Since July 7 the picture has softened a touch. The Dow has made two lower tops off the 53,289.30 high, 52,924.86 on July 16 and 52,511.21 on July 22. A market making lower tops is the weak side of his form reading, and the third or fourth lower top is where he sold rallies.

A weak picture still falls short of a turn, and this is the part that keeps me patient. In a bull market a normal reaction runs 3 to 4 weeks, and once it passes four it can stretch to 6 or 7. The pullback from July 7 is about two and a half weeks old. So it can run deeper and longer, well into the early-August window, and still be a normal reaction inside the uptrend rather than a change of the main trend.

It also sits with last week’s read. The analog set and the index of cyclical variation in last week’s chart 3 (#316) both pointed down into end of July to early August, and the drift off the July 7 high tracks that path.

Two things would move it from reaction to turn. The first is Gann’s overbalancing of space.1

The largest reaction inside the advance from the March 30 pivot ran 1,751 points, the June 5 high at 51,660.40 down to the June 10 low at 49,909.07. The chart marks a near-equal reaction of 1,746 points earlier in the move, and both project down from the July 7 high at 53,289.30 to about 51,540.

Call the line 51,538 on the greater of the two. The July 23 low at 51,542.06 came within 4 points of it, so a daily close below 51,538 overbalances the move and doubles as a break of that July 23 low, two methods on one number. A weekly close under the June 23 low at 51,301.77 breaks back through several weeks’ bottoms as the confirmation.

The second is the double top. If price rallies back into the window and stalls near the 53,254 cube boundary and the 53,289 high, then breaks the reaction low between, that is his “M” top, a failed retest of the high. In last week’s newsletter (#316), I kept the larger version of it up at 54,289 (squaring 233), tagged and retested. Either one makes the top on a second failure, the retest Gann waited for.

Conclusion

The hexagon adds two corners to a window I already set, so I read July 30 to August 1 as the tighter edge of the July 29 to August 6 zone. A normal bull-market reaction runs 3 to 4 weeks, so counting from the July 7 high the pullback carries into that same window before Gann’s clock says much either way.

Which way price leaves 51,538 is the one thing I’m watching.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

I’m taking some time off this week, so there’s no issue between now and then.

P.S.: The next full issue publishes the week of August 2, once the July 29 to August 6 window has closed. This note is the geometry behind the window, and the lines just under it. If the Dow closes below 51,538 while I’m away, that scores the overbalance, and I’ll cover it in that issue. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

On July 17 the Dow closed at 52,146.42, back under the 52,500 line I set in DJIA - The First Checkpoint (#309). In last week’s P.S. I said I’d write the moment that happened, so here I am.

It was ticked first on July 13 at 52,498.64, then reclaimed for three sessions. The 17th took it out by 353.58. I read the 13th as a tick and the 17th as the break.

In Squaring the Cube into Early August (#315) I moved off the ripple read from The dip that may only be a ripple (#314) and called early August a possible crest, and this break is the first thing that argues for it. So, is the high already behind us? My answer is probably not yet, and answering it meant going back over what I’ve written this year. The Fibonacci squares, the midterm set and the 60-year cycle each read differently now than when I posted them, and between them they’re most of my answer.

Where the count lands

I flagged the Fibonacci rhythm in The dip that may only be a ripple (#314), set out the squares in my post #315, and put the musical-scale version in a substack note on July 14. All three read differently now. The Dow tagged 20,736 twice in nine sessions: as a high on March 24, 2020 at 20,737.70, and again as a low on April 2 at 20,735.02, within 1 point. It crossed the level, then came back to test it from above.

So I don’t need to adjust anything. The square of 233 stays at 54,289, and the time node stays August 9, 2026, which is 2,330 days from that low, or 10 times 233.

The note showed why I keep calling it a scale. The run from 20,736 to 54,289 is 33,553 points, and it divides into 8 even steps of 4,194.125, the way an octave divides. The seventh step sits at 50,094.88. The eighth is the square of 233 itself. We closed July 17 at 52,146.42, roughly halfway between the two, still a step short of the octave.

So we’re arriving in time, and we haven’t arrived in price. If the same structure repeats up there, I’d expect 54,289 to be tagged and retested rather than touched once, which leaves room for a double top. Either way I read that last step as latitude for a high still to be set, not a target already missed.

The second-year position

2026 sits in the second year of the 4-year presidential cycle. I built that set in Politicians Are Like Tigers, where the top three came out 1966, 1926 and 1898 and my bias was 1966. The ranking has moved since, and I’ve re-measured all 35 years back to 1886.

Across the whole set 15 of 35 topped by July 31, about 43%. That’s near a coin toss, so I use the conditional number instead. 2026 came into July up 7.78%. Eleven of the 35 were up more than 5% at the same point, and 10 of those 11 went on to a further high later in the year. Only 1890 did not, and it finished 19.4% below its mid-July level.

So a market arriving in July the way this one did usually gets one more high. That’s the main reason I don’t think the top is in.

The 60-year line, inverted for now

I’m not dropping the 1966 comparison. Over the January to July window it correlates with 2026 at a Pearson r of -0.41, rank 24 of 35, and that number is the point rather than a reason to walk away.

The 60-year line called a February high, which 2026 delivered on schedule, then an autumn low. Instead the index kept rising. So the clock tracked and the direction inverted, which isn’t the same as the cycle failing.

A cycle can invert for half a year and then resume. I set out that inversion scenario in My Banker Called Me Nuts, and in The Annual Forecast Dilemma I answered a reader on exactly this, that inversions have so far resolved back to the path. Sooner in some cases, later in others. If it resolves here, the second half falls in line with the 60-year path, which my latest cycle run has down near 20% on the year by September, and that sits with the year-6 zone.

What the analog set says

Re-measured through July 17, 1898 firmed from r 0.809 to r 0.832 and holds rank 1. It went up while the level broke, which isn’t what I expected. 1890 sits at r 0.683, rank 3, and 1978 at r 0.652 has slipped to rank 5.

Here’s what the leader does next. In 1898 the index dipped through late July, ran to its year high on August 26, then fell into an October 19 low. So my strongest fit says one more push into late August, then the decline.

Chart 3 lays my composite against an index of cyclical variation (blue line). It tracks several planetary cycle relationships through their two halves: the waxing phase, while the two bodies separate, read as the more positive stretch, and the waning phase, while they close again, read as the more negative one. The two lines follow each other well enough here, which is why I keep it as a confirming layer. It can invert, so I don’t lean on it alone.

The year-6 zone, and lost motion

For his 1936 forecast Gann compared “the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th zone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926” (Gann, Stock Market Course, 1955). All four turn in the autumn rather than at midsummer. That’s the method, not a schedule.

I run the same comparison for 2026, and chart 4 is that run. Three of his four years, 1886, 1906 and 1926, sit in my own year-6 set, and 1866 falls before my data starts. Stepping the same zone forward gives 1966, 1986, 2006 and 2016. Weighted the way he weighted it, to the 20-year and 60-year steps, that line peaks in May near 6.7% and troughs in September near -1.9%, the only read in the set that turns negative.

He allowed for the gap himself: “as there is lost motion in every kind of machinery, so there is lost motion in the stock market due to momentum, which drives a stock slightly above or below a Resistance Level” (Gann, Stock Market Course, 1955).

Time has lost motion too, and his best-known call shows it. For 1929 he ran the same comparison against 1869, 1909 and 1919, and “figured the top must come not later than the end of August and stated that a ‘Black Friday’ would come in September” (Gann, Stock Market Course, 1955). The Dow’s last August session was the 30th, high 383.96. The top came one session later, September 3, at 386.10. Two points past his boundary, and the fall decline followed.

So a June or July high and an autumn turn aren’t at odds, since the first can overshoot into the second. The cycle landings agree on the month: September carries 10 of them, eight major-cycle analogs low-side, on Gann’s autumn cardinal around the 22nd. Heaviest month of the year, though a month holding a cluster sits near a realized turn about as often as any month does.

The cube hasn’t closed yet

I've updated the chart I published last week in Squaring the Cube into Early August (#315).

The cube's upper boundary sits at 53,254. On July 7 the Dow printed 53,289.30 intraday, 35.30 points above it, and turned back. Lost motion again, this time in price. But the face doesn't close until somewhere between July 29 and August 6, so there's room yet to work back up to that high on the back face. I may be wrong. I've also seen reversals come just before the cube corners, resolving into a low instead of the expected high, or vice versa.

Conclusion

The break of 52,500 is real. But a second-year market up nearly 8% at mid-July usually gets one more high, 10 times in 11, and 999.70 points sit open under the square of 233. So my preference is that the top isn’t in yet, August is the likelier month, and the autumn is what I’d prepare for. #309 called a July high and an early-August pullback, and both arrived on schedule. The August 21 date from #314 still stands.

Here’s what I’m watching, in order.

A close back above 52,500 keeps the 1898 path in front. A run into 54,289 inside the July 29 to August 6 window lands price and time together.

Below that, the Saturn 8x1 moving support (#314) is the first rung, near 50,000 to 51,000 into the autumn. It has held since the April 2025 low, so a close under it is the first sign I’m wrong.

Gann’s fan says the next angle catches it. That’s the Saturn 4x1, at 44,023 by October 10. Run the 1966 path forward from Friday’s close and the 60-year line reaches its own low on October 7, near 43,642. Two methods with nothing in common, 381 points and 3 days apart. Where they meet is where I’d say the 60-year cycle is back on track, not at the March low of 45,057.28, which sits 1,034 points higher. That’s the line.

I’d see it earlier in the gap closing, with the index turning down out of the August window while the 1966 path keeps falling. One caution: 1966 came into mid-July already down 7.7% and mid-decline, where 2026 is up 7.78% near its high. So 43,642 is where that path would sit if it resumes, not a target.

Each level is a place where the move may pause or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: The next update comes when the July 29 to August 6 cube window closes, or sooner if the Dow reclaims 52,500 and turns back up toward 54,289. If it rolls over from here instead, the 1890 path moves to the front and I'll reassess the analog set. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In last week’s post DJIA - The dip that may only be a ripple (#314), I flagged a squaring of Fibonacci numbers that seemed to line up with an upcoming price and time confluence. This issue gives you the geometry behind it.

The square of 144 is 20,736, a level the Dow tagged as it turned up from the days around the COVID low of March 23, 2020: the next session’s high printed 20,737.70, within 2 points of the square. The square of the next Fibonacci number, 233, is 54,289. And 10 times 233 is 2,330 days. Counted from that March 23, 2020 low, 2,330 days lands on August 9, 2026, right in the window I’ve been watching.

Since #314 the Dow has pushed on. It closed at 52,637 on July 10, 2026, after a fresh high near 53,289 on July 7, and it holds above the 52,500 line I set in DJIA - The First Checkpoint (#309), so the larger read still favors the 1898 analog, which leads the set at r 0.81. The S&P 500 is still the caution, holding under its early-June high, and that split keeps an early-August pullback in play even with the Dow out front.

The golden ratio

This may be coincidence. But growth in nature often tracks the golden ratio of 1.618, and markets tend to move the same way. The ratio between the square of 144 (20,736) and the square of 233 (54,289) is 1.618.

As price and time close in on the square of 233, that shows the parabolic rise, a move that spirals with the Fibonacci sequence. The jump from 20,736 to 54,289 is that advance in two numbers.

That August window matters because you can read the advance as a three-dimensional cube, with the Dow heading toward the top-left corner of the back face. The cube closes one of its faces into the last days of July and the first days of August, right up against the August 9 Fibonacci node.

I’ll walk you through what the cube is, why the window runs about a week either side of August 6, the Venus cycle that sits under it, and why the cube reads this as a possible crest, the top of that Fibonacci run, rather than the minor dip I first had in mind.

The cube, in plain terms

There are several ways to build a cube. Gann built the market up the way you build anything, a floor, four walls, and a roof. Six faces. Each face on his Square of Nine holds 81 numbers, and 9 times 81 is 729, what he called the cube of nine. Divide that cube by six and you get six equal faces of 121.5 days each (that 121.5 is one-sixth of the 729-day cube). Those face boundaries are the turn windows, as the chart below shows.

I’ll say up front that I haven’t tested the cube against a century of turns yet, that’s the next study on my desk. Each face boundary is a place to look, and confirmation still has to come from the chart. What I can show you today is where the methods agree.

Gann worked the cube flat, unfolded onto the chart, each face stacked after the last. The anchor is the December 2024 top. The record close came on December 4 at 45,014, and I run the cube from December 7. That date sits 121.5 calendar days from the April 7, 2025 low, and over that same span Venus and Jupiter separated by 121.5 degrees heliocentric, the angle that builds one cube face. So the first vector lands where planetary time and calendar time meet. December 7 wasn’t a trading day, but planets don’t pause on the weekend.

Why early August

Count one face of 121.5 days from December 7 and you land on April 7, 2025, the intraday low the Dow made that spring at 36,611. Four faces out, 486 days, brings you to April 7, 2026, about a week past the March 30, 2026 pivot low at 45,057. And here is the reason for this letter: five faces, 607.5 days, lands on August 6, 2026. A separate 121.5-day face counted from the March 30 pivot lands on July 29, 2026 (chart 2), which opens a week-wide window into that early-August date.

As I noted last week, that same March 30 and April 2025 pair is where my Saturn 8x1 moving support originates, the rising line that held the March low. So the cube’s corners and the timing line I already run mark the same pivots, read two ways.

Bradley Cowan read the same cube in three dimensions, running the trend as a line through the solid and measuring it by its body diagonal. Plotting a three-dimensional cube on a flat surface is an art that takes practice, but my Timing Solution software made it possible, as the chart below shows.

I’m not certain the degrees on the chart above can be swapped for days one for one. But 729 degrees of Venus-Jupiter separation also lands in the late-July to early-August window, and 729 is the square-of-nine cube (9 x 81). Gann taught that time can be measured in days or in degrees, so the same window is worth watching both ways.

The late-July to early-August window is a band rather than a single day, and two counts widen it. A fresh 121.5-day face from the March 30 pivot gives July 29, a week before the 6th. And six identical 121.5-degree steps of Venus-Jupiter from the April 2025 bottom, 729 degrees in total, also land in early August 2026.

Push the far edge to the August 9 Fibonacci node and the band runs July 29 to August 9 on the tight reading. Gann named his turns in small ranges like this throughout his work, so the band is in keeping with the method.

The secular trend cube

The current trend starts from the October 2022 low, so a larger cube for the secular trend can be drawn in Cowan’s three-dimensional style.

This larger box is a rectangular cube in Cowan’s sense, its edges unequal, so a degree count and a day count can measure different edges without clashing. At the October 4, 2022 low, Venus and Jupiter stood about 176 degrees apart heliocentric, close to opposition. Twelve steps of that 176°07’ separation cover about 2,113 degrees of relative motion and land on July 31, 2026. Each step runs just under 180 degrees, which is what drops the twelve into early August rather than late.

October 2022 was the bear bottom, and October 4 was not the exact low, the intraday bottom came nine sessions later on October 13 at 28,660. I anchor on October 4, and that slack is the point. The 486-day vector out to February 2, 2024 reads as the cube’s body diagonal, which makes the side 486 divided by the square root of 3, about 280.59 days. Five of those sides run about 1,403 days (the chart marks 1,402 d) and land August 6 to 7, 2026 from the October 4 anchor. From the true October 13, 2022 low the same math lands August 16.

So the day count and the degree count agree on one window: twelve Venus-Jupiter steps of 176°07’ reach July 31, and five body-diagonal sides reach August 6 to 7. Six days apart, both inside the same band. That spread is why I read early August as a window of roughly a week either side of the 6th rather than one day.

The counts from the shorter and larger cubes, in degrees and in days, together with a Fibonacci count, all point at one window, which raises the probability of a turn in that zone.

The Venus cycle underneath it

There’s one more layer, and it’s the one I find hard not to mention. Venus turns once on its axis every 243 days. Half of that is 121.5, the cube’s face. So the cube is a Venus grid too, each face half a rotation of the planet. The August 6 node sits at two and a half Venus rotations from the December top.

Push the same cube out and it keeps lining up. Its full close in early December 2026 falls at three Venus rotations, almost exactly two Earth years, and 60 degrees of Jupiter’s orbit, the same 60-degree division Gann cut his cube by. This is the same body I track with the Venus 8x1 line and the heliocentric cluster in #314, just read off the cube instead of the chart.

I can’t test it against price for you yet, so I hold it as one more confirming layer while the market confirmation is still ahead. When four methods land on the same window, that’s a confluence zone where an inflection point may show up.

The window, and what would break it

Taken together, the Fibonacci count, Gann’s and Cowan’s cubes, and the Venus grid all point at early August. When two anchors of geometry, a Fibonacci rhythm, and a planetary beat land within a week of each other, that’s a hotspot worth watching.

Read against my article DJIA- The dip that only may be a ripple (#314), this is the early-August turn I already flagged. What’s changed is how I read it. In #314 I had it as a minor pullback with a late-August crest near 55,968 still ahead. The Fibonacci squares I flagged in that same post made me read it the other way.

The charts draw the ladder into that crest. The cube’s upper boundary sits near 53,254, the 50% extension of the March 30 to February move I set in #314; the 61.8% is 53,884, the 233 square is 54,289, and the 100% is 55,968. If the parabolic run tops in that 54,289 to 55,968 zone, then the cube window itself is the crest, and what I called a late-August crest may come in as a trough instead.

There’s a timing marker on top of it. A total solar eclipse falls on August 12, 2026, its path of totality arcing over the North Pole and crossing eastern Greenland, western Iceland, and northern Spain; North America sees only a partial. This eclipse belongs to Saros series 126, the same family as the eclipse of August 1, 2008, one Saros cycle (about 18 years) earlier. In 2008 the Dow made a lower high on August 11 at 11,867, turned down the next day, and fell into the March 2009 low. That’s one analog, not a rule, but the Saros link drops the 2026 eclipse right inside my window.1

That’s the reading I’m weighting now: a top in the early-August window, tightest between the 6th and the 9th, while the Dow leads and 1898 holds, then a pullback, and possibly the start of a downturn into late August and on toward October 2026.

This is my preference for now. Cycles take time to turn, and a crest can stretch a week or two past the ideal count. If the run keeps climbing through the window, the corner isn’t the top: the trajectory carries into the next cube and the crest is deferred, and I’ll say so. Time may tell whether the cube marks a turn.

Each level is a place where the move may pause or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next update when the early-August window resolves, or sooner if the Dow closes back below 52,500. If it tops in the 54,289 to 55,968 crest zone and rolls over, that’s the price level to watch for. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

It’s July 4, 2026, and the United States turns 250. To my American readers, happy Independence Day. A quarter-millennium is a long anniversary, and long anniversaries are the markers I watch, so it’s a fitting day to see where the short and long cycles stand.

In my “2026 Mid-Year Forecast” (#308, June 14) I set a composite path for the second half: a July high, an early-August pullback, a September high near 52,000, and an autumn low. In “The First Checkpoint” (#309, June 20) the Dow had already run to the 52,000 area two and a half months early, so I set 52,500 as the line that would tilt the read to the stronger 1898 year.

On July 2 the Dow closed at 52,900, up 9.34% year-to-date from the January 2 close of 48,382. That’s above 52,500. This is the update I promised the moment the line cleared.

The S&P 500 still hasn’t confirmed. It closed at 7,483 on July 2, below its June 2 high of 7,620. So the Dow keeps making new highs while the S&P holds under its top, and that split is worth carrying through the analysis. It keeps the early-August pullback on the table even as the Dow leads.

Where the analogs stand now

The three years that led the set in “Mid-Year Forecast” ( #308, June 14) still lead it. Re-measured through July 2, 1898 the correlation sits at r 0.81, 1890 at r 0.69, and 1978 at r 0.65, with the top-3 composite at r 0.81. (Here r is the correlation, how closely each old year’s pattern tracks 2026: 1.0 is a perfect match, 0 is none.) 1898 firmed since late June while the others held their rank, so the fit only improved into July.

One flag before anyone runs with it. I don’t expect the Dow to reach the 58,000 area the 1898 price overlay would imply. 1898 has the strongest correlation, not a price I’m forecasting.

The 52,500 break matters because of what I said it would mean. When price runs this far ahead of the slower composite path, my bias moves to the stronger year in the set, and that’s 1898.

The dip looks like a minor wave

Economic trends mostly turn on the slow combinations of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. The shorter swings come from the faster bodies, the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars, in aspect to those larger planets: smaller cycles inside the larger cycle of the secular trend. A ship on the ocean takes time to turn because of its speed and mass, and the same can be said for the cycles that involve the larger planets.

That’s why I read any dip between now and September as a minor wave, not a trend change. In #309 the Gann cycle-cluster count came in light for July and August and heaviest in September, so the weight in the larger cycles sits later in the year.

The one near-term layer I’d downgrade is the Jupiter-Pluto opposition (geocentric, July 12 to 28, the two planets 180 degrees apart). Pluto is retrograde now, so its pull may be lighter, and I lean on the heliocentric read instead. The opposition has inverted in 5 of the last 7 cycles, and a turn landed inside its two-week window only about 28% of the time (its walk-forward rate in an out-of-sample test).

Weak on its own as a turn signal. It earns its place because in the last 7 cycles the DJIA slid into a dip around the opposition, and the matching high on this record isn’t due before September 2027, more than a year past the July 2026 opposition from a heliocentric perspective.

A tidal-force cluster into late August

My recent research was drawn to the work of the Italian professor Nicola Scafetta and his colleague Antonio Bianchini, who studied how the planets’ tidal pull on the Sun may pace solar activity.1

Their case is that the tides of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn help explain the 9-to-11-year sunspot cycle. One thing to be clear about: their research is about the Sun and the climate, not the stock market. The financial market step is easy to make. The sunspot cycle has been tied to the economic cycle and its recessions since Jevons wrote about it in the 1870s2, but it is not the only cycle, so I treat that link as a probability, not a rule.

I recreated their tidal model as an index and added Mercury, which is closest to the Sun and drives the shorter swings.

On the chart below Mercury is also the planet doing the aligning in this window: it makes four aspects to Venus, Jupiter and Saturn inside five days in late August. The index built (not shown on the chart) from those angles clusters into late August, close to early September.

The pull may be weak on its own, as Scafetta stresses. It runs stronger on the hard aspects, the conjunction (zero degrees), square (90 degrees) and the opposition (180 degrees), and when several of these fall together the chance of an inflection goes up.

The next square of Mercury and Saturn and the Venus sextile to Mercury (60 degrees) may be the short-term wobble the composite shows in early August. I’m not so sure the dip will run as deep as the composite analog chart 2 shows into early August.

The next confluences

It’s entirely possible the trend follows the Venus 8x1 timing line (a price-and-time line at an 8-to-1 ratio) right into the end of August. By August 21 the market is around 180 calendar days from the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction of February 25, after which the Dow corrected sharply into the March 30 low.

The Mercury-Jupiter conjunction on August 22 sits inside a heliocentric cluster: Mercury-Venus opposition on August 18, Saturn square Mercury on August 17, and Saturn trine Mercury (120 degrees) on August 22. These dates carry the heaviest tidal pull in the window, which is why I’d watch August 21, a Friday, for a crest.

The crest may sit at the 100% Fibonacci extension of the move from the March 30 low at 45,057 to the February high at 50,512: that projects to 55,968, with interim levels at 53,241 (50%) and 53,884 (61.8%). That target sits above the current 52,900 and below the 1898 analog’s 58,000, which I don’t expect.

Here’s the change from my earlier post #308. I no longer carry the October low near 46,200. Chart 3 shows the rising Saturn 8x1 line as moving support, the line that held the March 30, 2026 low and runs from the April 7, 2025 low it originates from. That support climbs into the 50,000 to 51,000 zone by October and November. So if an autumn pullback comes, I’d look for it to find that moving support near 50,000 to 51,000, not the 46,200 I named in June.

The Saturn 8x1 lower timing line gives me the line that would prove this analysis wrong. A daily close that holds above 52,500 through August keeps the 1898 case alive. A daily close below the rising Saturn 8x1 moving support, near 50,000 to 51,000 into the autumn, would break it, and I will update the analysis the moment it happens.

Each level is a place where the move may slow, pause, or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Conclusion

The 52,500 break on July 2 is the change since #309. It brings my analysis to the stronger 1898 analog year and points to any July-to-August dip being a minor wave inside the larger cycles rather than the start of an autumn decline. The tidal-force index, the Venus 8x1 line, and the August 17-to-22 heliocentric cluster all point to a possible crest into late August, near the 55,968 extension, with August 21 the tightest date.

The old October low near 46,200 comes off the calendar. The Saturn 8x1 moving support has held since the April 2025 low, and it now sits far higher, in the 50,000 to 51,000 zone by autumn. The S&P is the caution: until it clears its June 2 high near 7,620, the early-August pullback stays in play.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next update when the August window opens, or sooner if the Dow closes back below 52,500 or the tidal-force cluster turns the market ahead of schedule. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

One event runs through all three of these markets right now. The US-Iran risk premium that built up since spring came out in mid-June, and you can see it in the tape: gold and silver lower, crude well off its peak. Bitcoin working toward its target.

So instead of three separate emails, here are three short updates in one. Each scores a prior call and resets the level I’m watching. The links take you to the full post for each.

Targets met so far

Three calls have come in close to schedule, which is the reason for this recap.

Gold: the price and time resistance I set for the end of January 2026 held. Gold squared out near January 29 and has since broken the Saturn 1x1 line at 4,392. Time and price both met at the high.

Crude: the spike target and the timing both met. Brent ran past $100 into the 118 to 126 zone (the April 14 note caught 127.61 intraday) and turned in the April 9 to 19 window, on the Mars-Saturn marker and the Jupiter-Saturn inversion I had drawn.

Silver: the premature-breakdown call met. Price threw back inside the triangle and rolled over from the late-May high, the path the 82% Bulkowski reading pointed to. The point-D price target near 55.460 is still ahead, into late June.

Bitcoin is the one still in progress. Price sits inside the June to October window but above the 54,000 target, so there’s nothing to score there yet.

Gold and silver

Gold has turned from the January 29 high and broken its Saturn 1x1 line, with the chart asking whether this marks a 4-year cycle low. Silver did what the May work pointed to and rolled over from its late-May high, tracking toward the 55.460 zone into late June.

Read the full update here: The Risk Premium Comes Out (#310)

Crude oil

This is the clearest scorecard of the three. The spike call pointed to $100 and up, the high ran into the 118 to 126 zone, and Brent has since fallen about 37% toward today’s 79.85. From here I’m watching the foldback toward 61.960, with 86.720 the line that would say the premium is rebuilding.

Read the full update here: From the April High Back Toward Normal (#311)

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is inside the June to October window near 64,200, above the 54,290 to 52,552 target, approaching the Mars-Uranus conjunction of August 1. A break of the channel opens that zone. The Mars-Uranus timing rests on one past instance, so I’m giving the chart more weight than the count. If the foldback from the crest continues, this may not be the final low.

Read the full update here: Inside the 4-Year Low Window (#312)

Conclusion

Three markets, one driver: the premium unwinding after the preliminary peace headlines. Gold has turned from its January square-out, crude ran its spike and reversed on the April timing, and silver broke down as the volume said it would. Bitcoin is the one still inside its window, with the price target ahead.

All three fall inside the late-September into October cycle zone from the mid-year forecast, so the autumn turn is the one I’m tracking across the board.

This is my bias for now. Always keep in mind that cycles can contract, extend, or invert, and anomalies can arise. So, be careful out there. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Each of the three posts gets its own follow-up the moment its level breaks. Subscribers get those by email from the day they join.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my January 18, 2026 post “The Moment Of Truth For Bitcoin II”, I set a bias that Bitcoin would follow the 4-year cycle down toward roughly $54,000 between June and October 2026, with a foldback off the winter high. That bias rests on two Mars-Uranus helio cycles, which I charted in that January post.

Bitcoin trades near $64,200 today, inside that window but above the target.

Where the cycle low stands

BTCUSD is approaching my target area around the Mars-Uranus conjunction of August 1, 2026.

The semi-circles on the chart are two Mars-Uranus cycles: a 3.9-year cycle (almost 4 years), or about 1,400 calendar days. Two similar fractals, F1 into 2021 and F2 into 2025, have now almost folded back to the lower rising channel trendline.

Price near 64,237 sits below the 73,802 level overhead and above the target zone at 54,290 to 52,552. The window runs into mid-October, with the chart marking July 27, August 1, and October 16, 2026.

Continuation lower toward 54,290 needs the channel support to give way. One caveat to make: the 4-year low last turned on the Mars-Uranus helio aspect once, in November 2022. That is a single instance, too few to call a hit rate, so I watch the chart here, not the calendar.

A low around this time may not mark the end of the decline. The foldback fits a larger head-and-shoulders pattern that could unfold much lower, into the 30,000 level, after a sideways move into year-end.

A weekly close back above the 73,802 foldback level would invalidate the lower target and point higher.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is inside the June to October window at around 64,200, above the 54,290 to 52,552 target. Continuation needs the channel to break, and a weekly close back above 73,802 would invalidate it. The Mars-Uranus timing rests on one past instance, so I’m giving the chart more weight than the count.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next Bitcoin update the moment the channel breaks toward the target. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my March 1, 2026 post “The Impact of US Actions in Iran on Oil Prices and Stock Markets,” I called for Brent crude to spike toward $100 a barrel on the Strait of Hormuz disruption, along the Jupiter-Saturn cycle toward 119. On April 14, 2026 I posted a Substack note with Daily Brent Crude Europe at 127.61, and a reversal watch right at that level.

Brent trades near 79.85 today, down about 37% from that peak. The move ran hot, into the same Jupiter-Saturn angle as 12 years earlier, then turned. That timing raises a fair question of how much of the spike was the conflict and how much was the cycle.

The top and the foldback

The high printed into the April 9 to April 19, 2026 window, on the Mars-Saturn marker I had flagged, in the 118.992 to 126.100 zone (the April 14 note caught 127.61 intraday).

The reversal followed, the inversion of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle the chart is built on, which I first drew in a note on March 20, 2026. The foldback (dotted blue line) mirrors the decline from the 2014 high, about 2,160 calendar days per leg.

I was expecting a more sideways move along the foldback scenario. Brent near 79.85 now sits below the foldback path, between the 86.720 line above and the 61.960 level below.

The path points down toward 61.960 and lower over the next few years, with pauses along the way.

A reopened Strait of Hormuz removes the risk premium. The June US-Iran headlines have been mixed: a signing reported around June 19, talks for a final agreement postponed that day, then resumed today. Treat the status as unsettled.

The line that would change the analysis: a monthly close back above the 86.720 Saturn line, then 93.247, would say the premium is rebuilding rather than unwinding.

Conclusion

The January spike call and the April top both played out, and Brent has since fallen about 37% into the foldback. Below 86.720, the path toward 61.960 stays the base case, with the Strait headlines the main swing factor.

This is my current bias on crude oil. A fresh supply shock can pull it back up at any time.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next crude update when the foldback reaches the 61.960 zone or the premium starts to rebuild. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my post, "A revisit to recent charts and analysis" (March 22), I flagged gold running into price and time resistance at the end of January 2026, 49 years from the 1976 low, 45 years from the 1980 high, and 90 months from the 2018 low. I expected a turn there.

Gold has turned. Silver has rolled over from its May high. The US-Iran peace headlines on June 15 to 19 may have pulled the safe-haven bid out of both at once.

Gold

The January 29 high squared price and time on the $100 per degree Saturn 1x1, and gold has turned down from it. This was close to a Mars conjunct Pluto aspect. Price near 4,246 has broken that dashed Saturn 1x1 line at 4,392 and is following a foldback scenario (dotted blue line) from the crest, now near 4,253.

The open question on the chart: is gold tumbling toward a low on inflation fears, or simply following its regular 4-year cycle? Gold made a low in September/October 2022, four years back.

Below 4,253, the next downside step is 4,086, then the Saturn 1x2 line near 3,816, with AVWAP the nearer support. A weekly close below this line could bring Gold and back to 2,800 price level around the Saturn 1x4 timing line, but the 3,300 level around December may be a more likely target along the foldback scenario. A weekly close back above the dashed Saturn 1x1 at 4,392 could invalidate a further downside continuation.

Note: The semi-circles on the chart, representing a 180-degree move in this synodic cycle, suggest the 4-year cycle trough can be expected as early as end of June 2026, or as late as around the Mars opposition Pluto aspect in late 2026 which coincides with the larger dashed circle drawn on the chart.

Silver

Silver did what my analysis in my post “Did Silver Futures Experience a Premature Breakout?" (see my post #304, May 16) pointed to. A premature triangle breakout without volume resolves to the downside about 82% of the time on Bulkowski’s statistics, and price threw back inside the triangle, then the late-May high (point C) rolled over.

Price near 66 to 68 is heading toward the projected low (point D) in the June 26 to 29 window. This looks like an AB=CD harmonic pattern in the making. The measured move of 34.6 points to just below the Saturn 2x1 near 55.460 as the target zone. Volume keeps falling, which fits the move. A close back above the upper 50-day simple moving average near 75.40, then 82.67, would flip it the other way.

Note: the 1x1 Saturn line from the top and the 2x1 Saturn timing line from the August 2025 low seem to form a larger symmetrical triangle on which a breakout could occur at the end of the circle by end of July 2026.

Conclusion

The January gold top held, and silver resolved its triangle lower, with the June Iran peace headlines likely draining the premium from both.

Gold’s near-term read points to the lower Saturn 1x2 line, around 3,800. The open question is whether this marks a 4-year cycle low, or whether gold continues lower on the foldback toward 3,300. Silver tracks toward the 55.460 zone into late June, along the AB=CD harmonic.

This is my current bias on gold and silver. The peace headlines can shift, and a fresh supply shock would change the analysis.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next gold and silver level update when the target dates come into range. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my “2026 Mid-Year Forecast” (#308, June 14), I laid out a path for the second half of 2026. It came from three older years that look like this one: 1890, 1898, and 1978. I will call them the analog set, the past years whose pattern is closest to now.

That path pointed to a July high, a small pullback in early August, a high near 52,000 around September 1, and a low near 46,200 in October.

Five days later, the Dow has already traded near 52,000. The market is running ahead of the forecast, which is worth a closer look.

DJIA - Where the first half left us

The first half gave us two clear turns. The Dow made its high near 50,500 on February 10, within a day of the 60-year high back in February 1966. It then fell to a low of 45,057 on March 30, down about 10.6%. My earlier cycle analysis flagged both turns in time, so the cycle did its job.

After that, the market did not follow the 1966 analog lower. The Dow kept rising, so the 60-year cycle looks to have inverted. It made a new closing high of 51,999 on June 16 and reached 52,281 on June 17 before turning back and closing near the day’s low. By June 18, it sat at 51,565.

Two price levels are important to watch. A daily close above 52,500 would tell me the pullback is not coming, and that the market is tracking the stronger 1898 year. A daily close below 46,200 before September would tell me the autumn decline came early. Neither has happened yet.

The path I’m tracking

In last week’s post (#308), I set the plan and the exit levels in the same place so you can compare them to price. Here it is again:

• A July 6 high

• A small pullback into an August 7 low

• A run back up to a September 1 high near 52,000

• A decline into an October 13 low near 46,200

• A recovery into the year-end

These are probability windows, not exact dates. June is not finished, so the June high can still move.

The dashed line shows the path, with each turn from last week’s (#308) post marked. I have marked only the hard levels I named, near 52,000 at the September high and near 46,200 at the October low. The July and August turns mark only timing, so I’ve left them without a price forecast.

The early arrival is the change. My forecast put the 52,000 area in September. The Dow reached its high in mid-June, about two and a half months early. When price runs that far ahead of the slower, weaker path, my bias is toward the stronger year in the analog top-3 years: 1898. The 52,500 line is the test. Until the Dow closes above it, I will keep the pullback on the table.

One index falling short

The Dow keeps making new highs, but the S&P 500 does not. The S&P set its 2026 high on June 2, near 7,620. Since then, it has not gone past that level, even as the Dow pushed to fresh highs into June 17.

The chart below shows each index as a percentage below its own top. The Dow comes back to zero again and again, the last time on June 16. The S&P last touched zero on June 2 and has stayed under it.

In the next chart, I plotted both indices on a single chart, in actual points. The black lines connect each index’s early-June top to its recent top. The Dow’s run-up is a higher high. The S&P runs down, a lower high. A higher high on one index and a lower high on the other, over the same weeks, is the divergence. I’ve used two axes because the Dow trades near 51,000 and the S&P near 7,500, so the scales differ.

When one major index makes a new high while the other does not, that is a warning sign. It keeps the early-August pullback alive. So I am adding a third line to watch: if the S&P clears 7,620, that would confirm the Dow’s strength. If it keeps failing there while the Dow stalls, the pullback may be starting.

When the cycles cluster

Last week I also ran a separate test. This one counts Gann’s fixed-time cycles forward from past turns and asks which months in 2026 get the most hits. It uses no correlation at all, so it is a fully independent check on the analog set.

Two months stand out: April and September. September is the heaviest month of the year, with 10 hits. Of the long cycles that land there, eight are lows, led by the 60-year 1966 line, and the month sits on Gann’s autumn date around September 22 to 23. So this method, from a different direction, points to the same place as the analog set: an autumn low.

One caveat on this chart I need to share with you. In my earlier tests, a month with a heavy cluster sat near a real turn roughly as often as any month does. So I read April and September as windows to watch, not as fixed dates. A cluster is one signal. I want at least two more lined up before I trust it.

The split under September

The cluster tells me when a turn may come. It does not tell me whether it is up or down. For direction, I have chosen the years ending in 6 and plotted three different lines.

The three lines split, and that split is the real story. The broad set of year-6 years, the decennial pattern (1966, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016), runs up into the close, near +13% by December, and has finished higher 5 of the last 6 times.

The Gann 20/60 set (1946, 1966, 1986, 2006), weighted to the cycles Gann trusted most, is the only one that turns down in September. And the 1966 line on its own falls all year, from a February 1.5% high to about -20% by September/October.

So, September/October reads two ways. Under Gann's own weighting, it is a high, then a turn lower. Under the decennial pattern, it is just cycle weight with no clear direction until September/October, then a higher high into the end of the year. That split is real, and for now, I hold it as a bias and wait.

The next windows

A planetary timing layer sits just ahead of those, in late July. The Jupiter-Pluto opposition (the two planets 180° apart ) from July 12 through July 281. It’s a hard aspect, the kind where reversals can occur. It’s also an irregular cycle. In the recent record it has run inverted, so where it once marked lows it now points to a high.

In 6 of the last 12 oppositions a turn came inside a two-week window. That’s an even split, no edge on its own, so it earns its place only because it sits right next to the composite’s late-July high and the early-August low that follows. A daily close above 52,500 through that window would tilt the read back to the stronger 1898 path.

The first low window is early August. Gann’s seasonal date of August 8 sits right next to the analog set’s August 7 low. Two methods, one window. My cycle run is light in August, so the weight there comes from the season and the analog set; the fixed cycles add little.

The bigger window runs from late September into October. The analog set, the seasonal date, my cycle cluster, and the 60-year turn all point there. When two independent methods land on the same autumn low, that is the part of the forecast I would give the most weight.

I will also close an old call. In an earlier post, “Wheels Within Wheels” (#303), I named a possible July low near 42,149. The market instead cleared its February high, so that low is off the table. The inversion won.

Each level is a place where the move may slow, pause, or turn. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Conclusion

The forecast from my 2026 Mid-Year Forecast (#308) still stands, but the balance has shifted. The Dow reached its September target in mid-June, which leans toward the stronger 1898 year, while the 52,500 line has held it short of a full confirmation. The S&P has not made a new high since June 2, which keeps the early-August pullback in play. And two separate methods agree on an autumn low in late September or early October.

So my preference for now is the analog path into the August window, with 1898 as the stronger case that the Dow is flirting with, and the S&P as the index that has to confirm. The August window should settle which way it goes.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I will post the next update when the August window opens, or sooner if the Dow closes above 52,500 or the S&P clears 7,620. Free subscribers get it by email from the day they join.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my post #306, I listed two dates for the back half of 2026: August 8 and September 23, the two that carry the most weight in Gann’s seasonal record. I said then that whether either becomes a real turning point depends on what the cycle hierarchy and the analogs indicate once I run them. This is an update on the two independent studies: the top-3 analog correlations and the Gann annual cycle method.

As you remember, a reader pushed back in May against my continued use of the 60-year cycle analogy. His read was that the 60-year cycle has been off track since 2022, and that changing the read along the way makes tracking it meaningless. I didn’t dismiss it. The 60-year cycle isn’t always the dominant one, and I’ve said so before. But it’s one cycle within a hierarchy, and the mid-year mark is the place to show that rather than argue it.

The lesson here for all of us: don’t hold on to a bias or a previous analysis when the odds turn against you.

Here’s where the first half left us, to the day. The DJIA made a high of 50,188 on February 10, a low of 45,166 on March 27, and a new high of 51,562 on June 4. That last print ran past the 1966 forecast (inversion?) on which the second-half bias rested. I will start there, because it’s the true starting point.

Where the first half landed

Two turns were realized in the first half, and the Gann method had something to say about both. February held as a high, with the nearby cycle anchors reading high. Six of the eight Gann time cycles were projected from a past high but came in as lows by the end of March 2026: the 60-year cycle inverted across these turns. So the timing flagged both inflection points. You can’t draw a conclusion from two turns, and I’ll classify it as exactly that: thin.

Note: the tests show that inversions occur, as past highs and lows may change polarity over time.

The June 4 high is the one that matters for the second half of 2026. At 51,562, the index traded above the level the 1966 analog sat at, with that forecast pointing to an early-year high and an autumn low. The way I read this is that the 1966 price overlay is off the table for now.

The top-3 analogs, re-ranked

I built a tool that ranks past years by how closely each matches the current year’s pattern, weighted by correlation through June 12. It re-ranked the analogs using a January 2 to June 12 window (112 trading days).

The set now leads with three years: 1898 at r 0.78, 1890 at r 0.67, and 1978 at r 0.63.

That’s a real change from spring. The April data was led by 1966, but 1966 has since slipped to rank 23, and 1926 dropped out of the top group. Only 1898 carried over from the April top three. The set shifted toward three older years.

Three analogs at r 0.6 and up are a reading worth weighing. It’s a small sample, and the index might not follow any of them. Cycles contract, extend, and invert.

The obvious objection is that an empirical correlation search and Gann’s fixed cycles are two different tools that may not agree.

So the correlation tool and Gann’s cycle projection nominate the same years from opposite ends: one by price fit, the other by time-cycle count.

1898 is the exception. It’s the strongest fit at r 0.78 and the loosest harmonic, the year the fixed cycles would never have nominated on their own, yet it still resonates on a similar theme.

When three years line up this closely, it’s worth looking into what happened in them.

These analog years agree on similar political and economic themes, each near a major tariff episode: the McKinley Tariff in 18902, the Dingley Tariff in 18973 into 1898 (which raised rates to protect manufacturers and factory workers from foreign competition), and the 1978 dollar crisis, inflation, and Japan trade friction through 19784.

All three years also printed an autumn low. The 1890 and 1978 cases continued lower into year-end lows, while 1898 made an October low and rallied to a new high by December.

The correlation doesn’t prove a tariff link, but it’s a condition that aligns.

What the Gann annual cycle method revealed.

Before I make any call on a cycle window for the second half of 2026, I owe you the test I ran this month. The method projects all of Gann’s 33 cycles, from 90 years down to the minor 1-year cycle, forward, and watches for dates where many of them land at once: a cluster. The question I put to myself is whether a cluster marks a turn more often than chance.

I detrended the data and backtested it in 7 runs, using a relative price oscillator (RPO, which strips the trend) and the price level itself (the price detector), across 2022 and 2026, from monthly to weekly to daily, on the DJIA back to 1885, to test whether the timeframe makes a difference. A lift of 1.0 means the cluster did no better than the base rate; above 1.0 is an edge.

• On the monthly timeframe, the DJIA sits within one month of a detrended turn about 23% of the time to begin with. The dense-cluster months lifted that to a 1.41 hit rate, and the edge held after a backtest split the range at 1960.

• On the weekly timeframe, that edge washed out. In the flagged weeks, 9 of 222 sat on a turn: a 4.1% hit rate against a 4.1% base rate. A lift of 1.00, which is to say no edge at all.

• On the daily timeframe, it scatters. The lift sits near 1.1 at every window and doesn’t sharpen as the window tightens. After 1960, it fell to about 1.05.

The tests show that a monthly chart is enough to mark a zone to watch where a high or low may land. More data points on a weekly or daily chart didn’t add an edge or sharpen the timing of cycle crests or troughs.

Testing the method on 2022, it caught the January 2022 high, the September and October lows, and the November 30 high. So far in 2026, the 1966 high echoed in February 2026, and we now know the March low inverted on a March/April cluster.

I summarized the 2022 and 2026 results in the table below:

The table also shows which method, RPO or price detector, matched the actual high or low printed.

He put the fallibility into the trading as much as the timing: “When making a trade, remember that you can be wrong or that the market may change its trend and the STOP LOSS order will protect you” (same source).

Note: the annual forecast was only one part of his method. In his day, he judged the public wasn’t ready for the astronomical cycles, so he called them time cycles and left a clue through the 30-year cycle, the Saturn cycle, which he named just once. My best guess is that he read the planetary cycles alongside the time cycles to judge how a year’s forecast would play out and which analogs would confirm it. Something for my further research.

A probable path into the year-end

Putting all of the recent research into perspective, here’s how the second half of 2026 may work out.

In post #306, I flagged August 8 and September 23 on the seasonal layer alone. With the hierarchy and the top-3 analogs run, here’s what supports each.

August 8 has picked up top-3 analog support. The top-3 composite recorded a low on August 7, one day off the seasonal date. So a date I flagged in May on seasonal weight alone now has the analog set behind it: a seasonal trigger and a composite-analog low in the same window. It’s never proof it will play out this way; it remains a probable forecast.

September 23 reads as a bracket rather than a hit. The composite shows a high on September 1 and a low on October 13, which places September 23 in the declining phase between them. The analog set points to continued weakness into that date, without pinpointing the exact day. Support holds through the period, with the turn marked on the chart.

October is where the cycles stack up, and it’s the strongest read in the forecast. The composite’s October 13 low falls within the cluster method’s heaviest second-half low window for 2026, with 5 of 6 clustered-cycle hits (the RPO) and 12 of 15 from the price detector.

The seasonal layer, the cluster method, and the analog top-3 composite all point to the late-September-into-October zone. The 60-year cycle’s timing lands here too. The 1966 price overlay is off after June 4, but the cycle’s turn date stays in the window, so like last year I’d give it more weight in the second half.

The 1936 March low (90-year) echoed in a March 2026 low, and that year ended with a high into early 1937. So 2026 may well end with a high. That’s the complexity we have to work with.

Where the cycles disagree, I keep the options open. Confirmation comes from the chart, not the calendar.

There’s an inversion case worth weighing. 1898 is the bullish exception in the top-3 set, and the June 4 break above the 1966 forecast suggests 2026 may be tracking a stronger analog.

If 1898 leads, the back half would hold its September high, and the autumn decline would come in shallower than the composite shows, or not at all.

Conclusion

Two windows stand out for the back half: the August 7-8 zone, now carried by both the seasonal date and the top-3 analog low, and the late-September-into-October zone, where three cycles agree on a low.

This is my bias for now: the composite path through both windows, with 1898 as the inversion case that would keep the market stronger for longer, similar to the 90-year cycle (the 1936 similarity). No advice.

Back to the reader who said the 60-year cycle went off track. He’s partly right, which is the point. No single cycle predicts everything. The 60-year is one cycle in the hierarchy. The cluster method gives a monthly watch window. The analog set re-sorts as the year goes on. These methods are worth most when they agree.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: I’ll post the next update on the inflection points, or sooner if the path breaks early. Subscribers get it by email from the day they join. To follow all of my research and the 2026 forecast, subscribe for free.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

The 30-33 year cycle

The TLT-20+ Treasury Bond ETF is nearing the bottom from where it all started in July 2002. There seems to be a 30-33 year cycle probably related to Saturn in TLT.

Looking from the helio perspective the crest was set at an 18-year cycle high, on the Saturn-Pluto conjunction (at the same degree) in early 2020.

The Saturn-Pluto cycle is a 30-33 year cycle that seems active in the bond market right now. As shown on TLT 20+ Treasury Bond ETF on the chart above it may take some years from now to bottom out.

Current readings and levels

The Saturn planetary lines from the crest and November 2018 have tended to act as support and resistance, and on this 30-33 year cycle I would watch them into the Pluto-square-Saturn window around May 2031, with the Saturn-Pluto opposition near May 2036 in case the cycle gets extended.

At today’s levels (June 4th, 2026) a move and hold above AVWAP1 89.41 and 96.40 would favor the bullish case. A close back below 89.41 after that would keep the bearish case alive. Until then I would expect TLT to move sideways for quite some time, as indicated on the chart.

The sunspot angle

There seems to be a relationship with Sunspot highs and lows. When TLT started trading the Sunspots were close to a maximum, and the 18-year cycle high in TLT also fell at a Sunspot maximum.

There is a 9–11-year cycle in Sunspots, and it is not just eyeballed: the spectrum analysis I ran to extract the dominant Hurst cycle picks it out as a clear peak (see the chart below). So, the cycle itself is on firm footing.

The link to recessions is the looser part, and I would be careful calling it a recession signal on this data alone. TLT has only traded since July 2002, so this is one cycle of its own history, something I am watching rather than a rate I would stand behind.

Current expectations do not put the next Sunspot low before 2030, which may coincide with the next Saturn heliocentric cycle transition.

Short-term timing and the stocks-bonds view

On the shorter term you may look at Mercury, Mars-Pluto, Venus, Venus-Uranus moves in TLT. I think Mars-Pluto aspects are worth watching most. On the Chicago Board of Trade first-trade chart (midheaven at 23 Gemini), Mars, Venus and Mercury aspects line up with bond turns often enough that I follow them.

This is my bias for now. Anomalies can occur. Cycles can contract, extend and invert

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

👉 My mid-year stock market review is scheduled for next week’s newsletter.

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Last week a reader told me the 60-year cycle had gone off-track, and that my changing my read along the way meant tracking it is meaningless. In his view it’s been off-track since 2022. Respectfully, I pushed back and pointed him to my findings on the 60-year cycle in recent posts.

I didn’t disagree with one part of it. This cycle isn’t always the dominant one that tracks the current pattern best. And I’ll admit my bias: I’ve followed it since 2008, the long-term direction has held up well, and the occasional inversions kept resolving back to the 60-year path within a few years.

In recent posts I showed how the cycle behaved into the February high, which came within one day of the 1966 high.

Tracking it day by day isn’t a good idea, so I stopped posting regular updates. I don’t want to leave readers thinking the market always repeats the pattern of 60 years ago. The themes rhyme, and there may be an astronomical reason for that, as I’ve pointed out before.

The 60-year cycle isn’t the only one that matters. You use it in conjunction with others. It’s the top of a cycle stack that runs from gross to subtle, from the long-term cycles down into the smaller ones. Elliott Wave, Hurst, and the Delta Phenomenon all use a cycle stack. So does the method Gann taught.

The analyst’s dilemma

Making an annual forecast is harder than it looks. The hard part is knowing which cycle is dominant for the coming year, and which months inside it carry the highest confluence of timing signals.

Gann put it plainly: ”TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move up or down start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.” (Ch. 7, Master Stock Market Course, 1955.)

His method is hierarchical. You start at the top of the cycle stack and work down, and he laid out the process step by step.

The cycle stack

The 60-year Great Cycle sets the structural frame. Gann called it “the greatest and most important cycle of all” and pointed to the 1861–1869 war and panic as structurally similar to 1921–1929, roughly 60 years later. Before anything else, this tells you whether the current era sits inside a major bull regime or a structural bear period.

Inside that, the 20-year cycle is the most important for annual forecasting. Gann built a Master 20-year Forecasting Chart from 1831 to 1935, overlapping each period so the equivalent year in any prior cycle reads directly against the current one.

The 10-year cycle is the most directly usable: ”Fluctuations of the same nature occur which produce extreme high or low every 10 years. Stocks come out remarkably close on each even 10-year cycle.” (Ch. 7)

The 30-year horizon isn’t a separate tier so much as a comparison rule built on the 10-year cycle. Gann’s instruction: compare the current year with the record 10, 20, and 30 years back. Where those three agree on a month, that month carries more weight. That’s why the stack diagram shows the 10-year tier rather than a separate 30-year block.

Then come the intermediate cycles: the 7-year panic cycle (84 months), the 5-year campaign structure, and inside those the minor 3-year and 2-year rhythms. Gann’s rule on campaign length is that bull or bear campaigns rarely run past 3 to 3½ years without a counter-move. A market 37 or 40 months into an uninterrupted advance is extended by that standard, and that fact belongs in any annual forecast independent of what the longer cycles say.

The minor cycles add resolution inside the frame. A 12-, 24-, or 36-month anniversary count from a recent pivot, landing near a window the longer cycles already flagged, upgrades that window. In isolation, low weight. Clustered with a long-cycle window and a seasonal date, a good deal more

The year-digit

Running parallel to the cycle stack is the decade pattern. Gann assigned a character to each year by its ending digit, drawn from how the decade tended to behave in his record. He marked year 5 as a strong bull year, year 7 as structurally weak, and year 9 as the strongest, with campaigns often culminating September through November.

It’s a rough tendency, and the major cycles modify it. But it gives you a base expectation before any other calculation, and when the decade digit and the 60-year analog agree on character, that character carries more weight.

The seasonal overlay

Once the cycle positions are set, Gann adds the seasonal structure. He divides the year by the four seasons and their midpoints rather than by calendar months, which produces eight key dates.

Cardinal Cross: March 21, June 22, September 23, December 22

Fixed Cross: February 5, May 6, August 8, November 8

These are structural triggers. Their weight comes from combining with the cycle stack: when a seasonal date and a multi-cycle anniversary land in the same two-week window, that window carries elevated probability of a trend change. In Gann’s record, August 8 and September 23 carry the most weight for major turning points.

Gann also flagged the first week of January and the first week of July as seasonal pivots 180 degrees apart: ”Many times when stocks make low in the early part of January, this low will not be broken until the following July or August.” (Ch. 7, Ch. 10A) These two windows often set the annual range.

How the assembly works

The method is probabilistic. Gann’s own 1936 forecast, the worked example in Chapter 11A, stacks four analog years (1876, 1896, 1916, and the decade-6 precedents), then checks time-distance counts from the 1932 bottom. Where multiple analogs and projections cluster in the same month, that month becomes the watch window. He was direct about the limits: ”This is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.” (Ch. 7)

Where analogs conflict and point to different months inside the same broad window, both scenarios stay in the forecast. Confirmation comes from the chart, not the calendar.

What it gives you

The annual forecast builds the frame. Gann’s checklist in Chapter 7 is explicit about what that means: it narrows the year to a handful of watch windows with elevated probability of a turning point. Weekly and daily work then confirms whether a turn is actually happening.

Two windows already stand out for the back half of 2026 on the seasonal layer alone: August 8 and September 23, the two dates that carry the most weight in Gann’s record. Whether either becomes a real turning point depends on what the cycle stack and the analogs say once I run them. That’s the mid-year update.

In the next post I’ll walk that update stack by stack, and show what the method points to for the rest of 2026.

This is my bias on method for now: I weight the whole stack over any single cycle. No advice.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In my article #303 “Wheels Within Wheels” I highlighted May 21st–22nd as a near-term hotspot and laid out two scenarios for the July 2nd–4th cycle window: a major low near 42,149, or an inversion where the DJIA clears its February resistance first and July marks a high instead. The signal to watch was whether the Dow pushed through 50,512.

On May 22nd it closed at 50,580. The inversion case has gained probability.

Last week the 60-year cycle’s correlation to 2026 dropped to r=0.22; well below the 2001 analog at r=0.84. The closest historical match to 2026 peaked last Thursday (21st).

Using a Mass Pressure model, which finds the nearest historical matches by pattern correlation across 125 years of DJIA data, shows 2001 as the strongest analog (r=0.84), running less than one index point from 2026 right now.

In 2001, the path from this point turned lower through the second half of the year. These two frameworks are pointing to the same stretch of a probable forecast from different starting points.

What Mass Pressure measures

A Mass Pressure model is a cumulative return model that resets to 100 on January 1 each year. As the year progresses, the actual percentage move is measured against the start of the year. Above 100 means the index is up for the year; below means it’s down. The model finds the three closest historical matches by correlation across 125 years of data and runs a separate 500-path statistical simulation. When both methods come together, the signal is stronger.

As of May 22nd, Mass Pressure sits at 105.24. The Dow closed at 50,580, up from a year-start level of 48,063. The path wasn’t straight. The market sold off to 93.97 around day 86 (March 30th) before recovering through April and May.

The five gray lines on the above chart come from 500 simulated year-end paths based on the past 60 days of market volatility. The middle dashed line is the median. The inner dotted lines bracket 68% of paths, the one-sigma band, two out of three simulated years. The outer dashed lines cover 90%. They currently run from MP 89.9 to MP 141.4: a wide spread consistent with the analog divergence below.

How the analogs tracked 2026 so far.

The three analogs tracked 2026 through different parts of the year before separating.

• The year 2001 (orange, r=0.84) is running almost side by side with the actuals of 2026: 104.36 vs 105.24 at day 142 (May 22nd), less than one point apart. Both had a sharp spring selloff and strong recovery. In 2001, the path from day 141 (May 21st) turned lower. The market declined through the second half and closed the year at MP 93.68, implying a Dow equivalent of around $45,000.

• The analog year 2023 (purple, r=0.67) tracked January almost identically but stalled in the spring recovery, sitting at 100.42 by day 142, five points below 2026. Full-year path points to ~$57,000.

• The 2020 analog (green, r=0.66) diverged sharply after the COVID crash and by day May 22nd had only recovered to 85.73, nearly 20 points below 2026. Full-year forecast implies ~$63,000, but the paths look nothing alike from March onward.

How the analogs may track 2026 continuing its past pattern, starting from May 22nd, price level is plotted on the next chart. The middle path is a blend — useful as an anchor, less so as a directional forecast when the analogs are pulling this far apart.

The 60-year cycle: 1906, 1966, and 2026

The 60-year cycle is the most important cycle I track. Often themes from the past resonate on this 60-year sequence. The probable mechanism is astronomical. The seven classical planets, the ones the days of the week are named after, return to the same position in the sky on a 60-year cycle. The 120 and 180-year multiples mark further full rotations and are worth tracking alongside.

The DJIA dataset, from 1900 onwards, holds two instances: 1966 is the 60-year echo of 2026, and 1906 is the 120-year echo.

The 1906 → 1966 pair shows genuine structural similarity through the first half (r=0.74 through day 142): mild January rally, spring selloff, both below 100 by late May. After day 142 (May 22nd) the echo broke down: 1906 recovered to nearly flat (MP 98.08), while 1966 fell to a trough of 76.79 in October and closed at 81.06, down 19%. Full-year correlation drops to r=0.29. The cycle reproduced the first-half pattern but split on the second half.

2026 has already separated from both prior instances. Where 1906 and 1966 were in the red by late May, 2026 is up 5.24%. The spring dip-and-recovery is present. But the recovery carried further than either prior cycle reached at this point. By May 22nd, 2026’s correlation to the 1966 path stands at r=0.22; the structural echo is there in the first half, but the second-half paths are pulling apart.

What the numbers say

The statistical median and the analog blend both land near 113–114 by year-end, roughly $54,000–$55,000. When two independent methods land on the same range, that’s worth weighting, reducing the chance the middle is just a meaningless average of divergent paths. A spread this wide across the top-3 analogs signals regime uncertainty: the model has no strong directional lean when the analogs pull this far apart.

The 2001 path is the one to watch. Strongest correlation, tracking 2026 point-for-point right now, peaked at the same point in the calendar, and historically declined from here.

The Mass Pressure model places the rollover risk in the same half of the calendar that the planetary framework from #303 identified. The analog doesn’t pinpoint July specifically, but both frameworks point to the same second-half window.

What to monitor

• Whether Mass Pressure holds above 100 through June. A break below the year-start level brings the 2001 bear path back into focus.

• The distance between 2001 and 2026 on Chart 2. Right now they’re aligned. If 2026 continues higher, the bearish echo is loosening its grip. The inversion scenario from my #303 “Wheels within Wheels” article gains further probability.

• The 1966 path as the primary 60-year reference. Watch whether 2026 continues to separate from it or whether a summer correction starts to close the gap. (See my article: #286 The Sixth-Year Itch: A Forecast for US Indices in 2026.)

• The June 17th Fed decision. CME FedWatch currently prices a 98% probability of no cut. In 2001, the Fed was cutting aggressively through the second half, 11 reductions from 6.5% to 1.75% by year-end. That policy cushion doesn’t exist in the same form today. A market that weakens without Fed support moves differently than 2001 did.

• Whether the reported US-Iran framework agreement moves toward implementation. A reopened Strait of Hormuz removes an oil risk premium from the market, which historically supports equities and takes away one of the macro disruption events that could otherwise accelerate the bearish path. If it progresses, it favors a continuation of the inversion scenario into July.

Conclusion

The Mass Pressure model and the cycle framework from #303 point to the same stretch of the calendar from different starting points. The closest statistical analog peaked last Thursday (21st) and historically declined from here. The planetary cycle window lands in early July.

We’re dealing with probabilities. Neither method specifies the outcome: the 2001 bear path, the 2020 bull recovery, or something in between all remain on the table. The 2001 analog tracked 2026 point for point to last Thursday. The road to July 4th is six weeks out. Time may tell.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

In early May, Silver Futures appeared to break out above a consolidation phase. Analysts were posting bullish setups. Tavi Costa here on Substack posted the chart below on May 7th, 2026.

I respect Tavi's work. But the volume wasn't there. On Bulkowski's data, a symmetrical triangle that breaks out before the apex without volume confirmation resolves to the downside around 82% of the time. So I posted a reply directly in his comment section:

“I am not so sure, Tavi, the symmetrical triangle breakout does not seem to be supported with significant volume. Probabilities (82%) may still favor a downside breakout.” 1

Breakouts before the apex have tended to fail and throw back inside the pattern, or reverse around the apex itself. The apex here was expected around May 27th.

Silver Future - Premature Breakout

Within a week, Silver futures were still trading at low volume. On Friday, price threw back inside the symmetrical triangle.

Watch the lower trendline. If Silver breaks below it, Bulkowski puts the probability of a continued decline at around 79%. In roughly 57% of those cases, the full measured move from apex to trendline extends below the breakout point. 1 Volume stays the key qualifier: low-volume breakdowns have tended to underperform the projected target. Bulkowski's study puts the most likely decline in the 10% to 19% range.

A first break below often leads to a brief pullback toward the lower trendline before the downtrend resumes. Wait for a confirmed break, and keep in mind that price can still reverse around the apex.

The pattern on Chart 3 reads as a consolidation within a larger downtrend. Prices tend to leave a symmetrical triangle in the same direction they entered.

What To Watch

The lower trendline on Chart 3 is the level to monitor. A sustained break below it on meaningful volume would shift the probability toward Bulkowski's most likely decline range of 10% to 19%. The apex date, May 27th, is the other marker. Price behavior around that date tends to be decisive.

I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies occur, fundamentals shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

There are two cycles I haven’t shown you yet. The cycles of Mars and Venus that run together. Three cycles of Venus helio fit almost perfectly in one cycle of Mars.

1 × Mars = 686.98 calendar days. 3 × Venus = 674.10 calendar days. Those two run within 1.91% of each other. When two independent planetary cycles land that close to the same period, the timing signal carries more weight than either alone.

Together, they point to a major inflection around July 2nd–4th, 2026. The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and NYSE Composite all sit in this cycle’s path. Whether July 4th turns out to be a major low or a major high is the honest question I’ll work through in this newsletter update. I don’t have a certain answer. The coming weeks should start to provide one.

New readers may want to start with my latest posts: #299 - My Banker Called Me Nuts and #300 - New Highs and the Jupiter-Saturn Clock, where I covered the 60-year cycle, the 4-year cycle, and the Jupiter-Saturn framework that brought us to this point.

The Mars/Venus - Pluto cycles

The large red semi-circle on the DJIA chart below ranges from approximately August 2024 to early July 2026, 686 calendar days. It crested near the February 10th all-time high on the DJIA. The semi-circle’s projected trough falls on July 2nd–4th, 2026, where the 4-year and 60-year cycles are expected to land.

Two additional cycles sit alongside it. The Venus-Pluto and Mars-Pluto heliocentric cycles, with the Venus square Pluto and Mars square Pluto aspects as important inflection points. These have marked turning points in the US indices in prior cycles, and they’re heading to a similar square aspect with Pluto in the same July window.

The chart also shows four Kite formations (planetary geometries) from a heliocentric view involving:

• Venus, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, as seen in August 2024, one in March 2025, one in early November 2025 and one around mid-June 2026

• Earth, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, as seen in March 2025 and March 2026

• Earth, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune unfolding in third week of May 2026

A Kite is a Grand Trine anchored by an opposition: four planets in a configuration, perhaps guiding or forcing the trend toward a specific target, a low or a high.

A Kite has three components.

• The body is a Grand Trine: three planets positioned 120° apart, forming an equilateral triangle. Harmonious by nature, but passive. Left alone, a Grand Trine rarely produces a sharp directional move.

• The tail changes that. A fourth planet sits in opposition (180°) to one corner of the triangle. That tension activates the trine, converting harmony into directed energy.

• The fourth planet also forms two sextiles (60°) with the other two corners. These act as stabilizers, giving the whole configuration a clear focal point. The result: momentum with a target.

These Kites may have been the cause for the bull market’s momentum through 2025 and into mid-2026. Whether they drove it or simply reflected it, the geometries since August 2024 were in harmony with the strong trend.

There is another geometry worth mentioning from a helio perspective. In 2025, a Yod (Venus, Uranus, Neptune) synced up with the low in April 2025 and the November 2025 low. The next one unfolds early July 2026.

Looking at the chart, at the first two instances in 2025, the Yod fell into the Venus square Pluto aspects. The Yod marked the end of a short-term decline, in a longer-term uptrend supported by the Kite formations.

Venus rules money and value. Neptune feeds the illusion that markets can only go higher, that speculation is rational, that the trend has no ceiling. Together they make the crowd believe in the move right up until it ends.

Uranus is the disruptor. Sudden shocks, volatility, behavior that can go either way.

Hence, the semi-circles on the above chart are potential inflection points, either a high or a low.

The DJIA closed at 49,499 on May 1st. That’s roughly 2% below the February intraday high of 50,512, consolidating in a range the market hasn’t broken since April 17th. Three attempts at the 49,720 level. Three failures.

In #300, I flagged April 22nd as the Jupiter-Saturn geocentric crest date. The market has been unable to push meaningfully past that level since, which is consistent with the semi-circle’s behavior after a crest. However, the Venus opposition Pluto aspect may hint that the fourth attempt breaks through.

The US indices

The four indices: DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the NYSE Composite are not in the same place right now, and that gap matters.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have pushed to new all-time highs since February 10th. The DJIA has not. It still needs to clear 50,512 to confirm the breakout. That divergence (the S&P and Nasdaq leading while the DJIA trails) is intermarket bearish divergence. It’s been in effect since the February peak and it hasn’t resolved.

The broader NYSE Composite index is in a similar position as the DJIA and hasn’t broken the all-time highs of early 2026 yet.

The near-term hotspots on the way to July: May 10th, May 21st–22nd, and June 14th. Think of these as potential short-term inflection points within the larger move, not the cycle low itself.

Two scenarios into July

If the semi-circle plays out as a low, the DJIA target near July 4th sits around 42,149. From current price, that’s a further decline of roughly 15%.

The inversion scenario: the current consolidation near 49,500 resolves upward, the DJIA clears 50,512, and July 4th marks a high instead. The real decline would then start from there.

My bias is toward the low scenario. Back in my post: #286 - Kicking Off 2026, published January 17th, I outlined five long-term cycles all pointing to a high between January and May 2026, followed by a decline.

Among them: Louise McWhirter’s 18.6-year cycle of the Moon’s North Node, the 22-year solar cycle, and the 60-year cycle and 1966 analog from my Newsletter #299. They all pointed the same way. The February 10th all-time high landed right in that window.

In my newsletter #282 - The Long-term cycles in US Indices, I wrote:

It was time for them to crest. The February high landed almost exactly where the setup said it would.

In my newsletter: #300 | New Highs and the Jupiter-Saturn Clock, I called the April bounce the “second crest” scenario, a short-term recovery within a longer downtrend. That’s still my read. The DJIA’s failure to confirm the S&P and Nasdaq breakout only adds weight to it. But the inversion carries real probability. I’ve seen this cycle flip before. The May 10th and May 21st–22nd hotspots should start to tell us which path the market is on.

Conclusion

Over the past couple of months I have discussed several important cycles while the US stock market continued to even higher highs. It shows that when multiple long-term cycles and several geometries are unfolding it may be hard to forecast when the overall market will roll over.

The Mars/Venus composite is a new analytical layer on top of the 60-year cycle, the 4-year cycle, and the Jupiter-Saturn framework we discussed earlier. It points to the same early July window from a different starting point. When independent cycles arrive at the same date without being fitted to each other, I take that seriously.

If the current trend continues into that time window, the upcoming squares of Mars and Venus with Pluto may mark a high, instead of an expected low around the Venus-Uranus-Neptune Yod. The three Yods in 2025-2026 will then have a low-low-high sequence, which is often seen in the stock market.

I’ll be watching the chart closely. If the indices are still pressing against resistance by May 21st–22nd, the low scenario stays on the table. If the DJIA has pushed through 50,512 to new all-time highs, the inversion case around the Yod and the Venus and Mars square Pluto aspects gains probability.

Time may tell.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

NVDA has been in a range bound move defined by two Saturn lines for the last 6 months. Yesterday NVDA hit the upper Saturn timing line at $216.83 and pulled back. As of writing it’s trading at $209.57. That kind of touch-and-retreat at a 6-month ceiling is, in my experience, worth examining closely.

NVDA - The 6-month range

Since the crest in October/early November last year, NVDA has been trading within a channel defined by two Saturn timing lines. The upper Saturn line sits at $216.830.

Yesterday, NVDA hit the upper Saturn line at $216.830. As of writing, the stock is trading intraday at $209.57. The importance of this timing line is that on this line price and time are in balance, which is an inflection point on which the trend can either continue, or pull back from. A break above the upper Saturn line would be a break out of the 6-month range, which I’d consider a bullish move.

NVDA - Mars through the zodiac

The weekly chart shows when Mars ingresses Aries and Taurus from a heliocentric perspective. Mars at 4°32’ has marked three significant turns: around the July 2022 ingress in Aries, the May 2024 high, and now April/May 2026. Based on the last two cycles, this is a key window in time for NVDA.

If NVDA can break through the Saturn resistance, I can see a scenario in which NVDA might surge into a $240-$244 price level by the first or second week of May.

The 2x1 Jupiter timing line, drawn from zero price level in July 2022 when Mars enters Aries, also points toward $244.00. This represents a 45-month, or 122° move of Jupiter Helio from July 2022.

As cycles can contract or extend, I can even imagine the stock remaining around the $240 price level until the third week of May, where there is a Mars-Saturn confluence hotspot on May 22nd, 2026.

NVDA - Geometric timing and planetary lines

In the below chart I made a geometric analysis by adding a vector concentric circle drawn from the September 2025 low.

From a geometric perspective, a May 22nd inflection point aligns with the PI × radius (57 trading days) of the circle drawn on the chart. This is unfolding the cycle by half the circumference. We have seen the almost 180 trading day cycle before, between the highs of February and October 2025. Considering a bullish or bearish scenario, this can be a high or a low.

As we are very close to the moment Mars ingresses into Aries from a helio perspective, it may be possible that NVDA at this point in time will not leave the range bound move we have seen since the crest in October/early November last year.

There is a potential scenario in which the cycle of Mars through the zodiac may make a low by May 22nd, 2026, instead of a high. We will then see that the almost 180-day cycle makes a February 2025 High, a September 2025 High and a May 2026 Low sequence. A High to High to Low sequence is a probable scenario that occurs many times.

Conclusion

NVDA entered a bullish phase on April 3rd based on the Mars cycle through the zodiac, and yesterday it hit the upper Saturn timing line within the 6-month sideways move. Two scenarios are now active.

The bullish case: a break above the Saturn resistance opens the door to $240-$244 by early May, and a larger crest at $270-$280 in September 2026.

The cautious case: a red foldback from yesterday’s high leads to a potential double bottom around May 22nd, the Mars-Saturn confluence hotspot.

I honestly don’t know which one plays out, so watch the chart in front of you.

This is my bias for now.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

On December 31, 2025, I tweeted a TSLA chart with a mirror-image foldback drawn from the December 22 crest. TSLA was trading around $465 at the time.

It’s at $373 today. Close to 20% lower in less than four months, without a single new forecast needed.

TSLA - The December 22 Crest Forecast

On December 30, 2025, called TSLA 'a ridiculously overvalued stock.' My cycle forecast from the December 22 crest, posted the following day, confirmed the direction (from a different analytical angle).

This daily chart was built around heliocentric aspects, gray shaded columns marking major planetary time confluences, with three Gann angles rising from the 2025 low: a 1×1 primary trendline and 1×2 and 1×4 trendlines acting as dynamic support on the way up.

A trend below each of these lines is bearish, and usually the trend may continue, once broken to the next lower trendline. On each of these lines Price and Time are in balance and may act as inflection points.

At the bottom of the above chart, three almost 225-calendar-day cycles were drawn from the Venus-Pluto Helio conjunctions. The number wasn’t chosen at random. 225 days is a Venus cycle period. The projection mapped 225 days of time to $224 in price. Price and time squaring.

The stepped targets on the right side: $465.16 → $421.06 → $383.76 → $342.62 → $292.64 → $224.26.

By April 24, price has already worked through $465, $421, and $383 and is now in the $342–$374 zone, right where the 225-day cycle said it would be. The $292 and $224.26 levels are the next major targets. August - September 2026. 225 days, 225 in price.

TSLA - The April 7 Weekly Update

The weekly chart shows Saturn planetary timing lines and the 4-year cycles as a second analytical layer.

The diagonal Saturn 2×1 and 1×2 timing lines sat below price as dynamic support. A mirror-image foldback was drawn in blue from the $496 high, with horizontal confluence levels stacked below: $433.20, $399.00, $371.75, $347.11, $300.41, $251.52.

By April 7th, TSLA was sitting just above the Saturn timing line near $350–360. The question the chart posed: would that price/time balance hold, or would the foldback take over?

The Q1 2026 earnings provided the answer.

The Q1 2026 Earnings: What Changed

TSLA reported on April 22.1 The operational side looked solid:

• EPS $0.41 (vs. ~$0.36 expected)

• Revenue $22.4 billion (+16% year over year)

• Auto gross margins 19.2% (up sequentially)

• Energy storage margins 39.5% (record)

• GAAP net income $477 million; GAAP net margin 2.1%

The forward guidance and the 10-Q told a different story:

• CapEx raised to over $25 billion for 2026 (from ~$20 billion prior)

• Free cash flow expected to be negative for the rest of 2026

• Hardware 3 confirmed unable to run unsupervised FSD; hardware upgrades or trade-ins required across a large part of the existing fleet

• ~50,000 more cars produced than sold in Q1; inventory at 27 days of supply, up from 15 days

• The primary driver of the operating income improvement: one-time warranty and tariff benefits; strip those out and the 2.1% GAAP net margin is the real picture

• Reported by Electrek: a $2 billion acquisition of an AI hardware company, more cash deployed before the heavy CapEx cycle has even started 2

The stock sold off 3–4% in the days that followed. A forward P/E of 189× doesn’t leave much room for a $25 billion cash-burn narrative. The Saturn timing line gave way.

Where the Chart Stands Now

TSLA is now sitting just above the Saturn 2×1 timing line near $371–374. The $348 price level at the horizontal Saturn 2x1 timing line is a potential near-term inflection point. A short sideways move from here wouldn’t surprise me following the foldback pattern. Remember: Time is more important than Price.

So far, the December 22 daily chart called this level four months ago as you can see on the below weekly chart.

Price closed at $373.72 on April 23. The “16 months” annotation on the above updated weekly chart tracks time from the $496 high toward the lower diagonal 2x1 Saturn line in March - May 2027. The blue foldback projection is following its drawn path closely. If the foldback continues, the path between now and spring 2027 may even become volatile by the end of August 2026.

The Daily chart below shows a potential similar foldback, with the 1x2 calendar day timing line acting as support for now. Once it goes through you may expect a further tumble into the $290-$300 price level by July 2026 and on its continuation to a price level of $225, where price and time align at the conjunction of the Venus-Pluto synodic cycle.

The Next Confluences

Near-term: $300.41. The Saturn 8×1 angle and the horizontal level from the weekly chart converge here. First major target below current price.

August-September 2026: $224.26. The 225-day Venus-Pluto cycle from the January 2026 conjunction maps 225 days of time to $224-$225 in price. That's where price and time square next, or so the cycle suggests. The step progression from the daily chart: $342 → $292 → $224 points to the same zone.

July 2027: $150. The Venus-Pluto helio cycle adds a longer-term projection. That’s a long road with several potential inflection points along the way, and I honestly don’t know if it plays out. The cycle has been precise enough so far to take it seriously. It can also invert.

Each level is a potential place for the foldback to slow, pause, or reverse entirely. These patterns always stop working at some point, usually when you’re most convinced they won’t. Always watch the chart in front of you.

Conclusion

A forecast drawn on December 22, 2025 has tracked TSLA lower by close to 20% in four months. The Q1 2026 earnings delivered the fundamental weight that broke the 1x1 calendar day timing line support on the daily chart and confirmed the foldback already in motion.

If support breaks the Saturn 1x2 timing line, my near-term price target is $300. By August-September 2026: $224.26, where 225 days of time meets $224 in price on the Venus-Pluto synodic cycle. By July 2027: $150, if the Venus-Pluto cycle runs its course.

This is my bias for now. (No advice.)

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

Share

© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

"Politicians are like tigers." (S.S.S.) In my experience they do anything to stay in power.

I heard this from a wise man many years ago, during one of his lectures. He was being gentle, actually. His full quote was: “Politicians are like tigers; the essential difference is that tigers aren’t always ferocious while politicians are.”

Politics and Sentiment Define the Direction in 2026

The examples write themselves. Tariff increases in 1965/1966. Vietnam. Ukraine. Now Iran. Whether it is the politics from East or West, North or South, it’s all the same.

Leaders do what they need to do to stay in power, and the people follow, bound by what the wise man in the lecture described this way:

That sentiment is the key. It’s what keeps a nation behind its leaders, right up until the moment it doesn’t.

In 2026, the US market is living this out in real time. One day a ceasefire is announced. The next, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The day after, bombing resumes. Market sentiment follows the people, and the people follow the tiger.

Hence the market goes hither and thither, with no clear direction.

Which is exactly what midterm years tend to do, and what you see in the above chart on the computer screen.

(BTW: I’ve put a chart on a computer screen, with a tiger watching behind it. It felt appropriate.)

The midterm year

2026 is a US Midterm election year, the second year of the presidential term. I’ve gathered 35 midterm years of DJIA data to put what we’re seeing into context.

The chart below shows the average DJIA performance across those 35 midterm years, overlaid on how 2026 has performed so far.

The average midterm year ends roughly +/- 2% from where it started. That sounds tame. The range of outcomes around that average is anything but.

The spread: -25% to +45%

When you plot all 35 midterm years individually, the picture gets more interesting.

In difficult midterm years, the market has fallen as much as 25%, as it did in 1966. In prosperous ones, it ended the year up 45%. The average of +/- 2% is probably the best most people can hope for right now, given the current environment.

This is what makes forecasting a midterm year genuinely hard. The spread of outcomes is enormous. And whether you end up closer to 1966 or to one of the better years depends largely on the behavior of the tiger.

The Composite Analyzer: top 3 analogs

To get a sharper view, I’ve built a tool that identifies the top 3 midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance, from January through last week. It then plots those years alongside 2026.

The three years that came to the surface are 1966, 1926, and 1898.

That’s the 60-year cycle, the 100-year cycle, and a 128-year cycle, all surfacing together. The DJIA tracked all three years very closely from January through last week.

1966 has the strongest correlation. 1898 is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here. 1926 sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top 3, a sideways drift that echoes the broader 35-year midterm average.

Each of these years carries its own resonance. In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power, through victory in the Spanish-American War, trying to gain military and economic power across the Pacific and Caribbean, from the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico to annexing Hawaii. (Source: Office of the Historian.gov)

In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election. The themes present in 2026 sit closest to 1966 and 1898. Though I’ll admit the 1926 parallel, AI today versus electrification then, is not easy to dismiss.

My bias: the 1966 analog

My bias is for 1966. The correlation from January through last week is the strongest of the three. And the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. The DJIA fell roughly 25% in 1966.

I haven’t made this chart dynamically adjustable for today’s volatility yet. But the direction is visible. I’ll update it week to week to see how the midterm year plays out.

Of course, I can be wrong. Other years may become more dominant as we move forward. The cycles can invert.

Conclusion

The midterm year in 2026 is following the pattern I’d expect. The tiger is ferocious. The sentiment is volatile. And the market is reflecting both.

The top 3 analogs, 1966, 1926, and 1898, all tracked 2026 closely through last week. From here, the paths diverge sharply. In the next month or two, the picture should become clearer.

This is my bias for now. I’ll follow it week to week and update the charts as new data comes in. The next few weeks will tell us quite a bit.

Remember, cycles can contract, extend, and invert. I may be wrong, of course. Anomalies can occur, fundamentals can shift, so be cautious. No advice. Be careful out there.

In case you haven’t noticed, I post various charts in the Substack notes every week. You can find them all here. (click on the link)

P.S.: Occasionally, I share new analyses exclusively for free subscribers. Subscribing gives you email updates on these posts, plus extra insights and deeper research from the time you join onward; past analyses are not included.

If you liked this post from @Fiorente2’s Blog, why not restack and share it?

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© 2008–2026 Fiorente2.com. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Disclosure: From time to time, I may hold positions in the securities mentioned.